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Sabres news, some good and some not so good. |
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First off, some really good news for NHL fans as the league is targeting a January 13th start to a 56-game NHL season. Whether or not there will be fans in the seats in any capacity remains to be seen as Coronavirus vaccine manufacturing and distribution is just beginning but there is light at the end of a tunnel and even though it's long and dark, the first steps back to a sense of normalcy have been taken.
The National Hockey League has been hit hard by the pandemic and with that we'll lead into the not-so-good news for the Buffalo Sabres this long off season before ending on some happier notes.
Financial health of the NHL and Sabres
NHL franchises took a tough hit in the Spring as the normal season was cancelled in March, but the league managed to scrape out some TV revenue with an alternative end to the regular season and a full slate of playoff games in two bubbles. The toll it took on some franchises, including the Buffalo Sabres, was pretty harsh. In it's annual listing of team values Forbes outlined the impact of the pandemic on the league:
--the average team value dropped by 2%
--the $4.4 billion in revenue from a season that was 85% completed was 14% below the prior year
--operating income was down a whopping 68% ($250 million)
The rich/poor disparity was glaring as well in a pandemic-ravaged 2019-20 season. "The league’s five most valuable teams—the New York Rangers ($1.65 billion), the Toronto Maple Leafs ($1.5 billion), the Montreal Canadiens ($1.34 billion), the Chicago Blackhawks ($1.085 billion) and the Boston Bruins ($1 billon)," wrote Forbes, "accounted for almost a quarter of the league’s revenue. Without them, the league would have lost $50 million."
Unfortunately the Sabres aren't amongst those big-market, money-machines even though they have big-money ownership in Terry and Kim Pegula. The Pegula's saw the current value of their team drop 4% to $385 million on an initial investment of $189 million in 2011. There were seven other teams in Buffalo's boat at -4% and five who fared worse at -5%.
According to Forbes, revenue for the Sabres last season was $120 million with only 10 teams below them (the NY Rangers led the league with $225 million in revenue) while operating income for Buffalo was $-11 million, which was seventh-worst in the league (the Montreal Canadiens led with $87 million on revenue of $215 million.)
Possible NHL realignment for 2020-21
Those are some big losses for Buffalo but in a tribute to the commitment the Pegula's made at their 2011 introductory press conference, management has been given the financial resources to ice a roster that will hopefully end their league long, nine-year playoff drought.
Unfortunately for the Sabres, the pandemic has forced the NHL to temporarily realign their divisions. International travel restrictions are probably giving us an all-Canadian division with the league leaning towards three regional divisions in the States. Preliminary indications has the Sabres in a group with Boston, New Jersey, NY Islanders, NY Rangers, Philadelphia and Washington along with Pittsburgh or Carolina. Only two of those teams, Buffalo and New Jersey, failed to make the expanded playoffs last year while Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh have been perennial playoff teams. Add in the Islanders, Philadelphia and Carolina as teams on the upswing and the Sabres are in a bit of a pickle.
Should the league be looking at another expanded playoff scenario of 24 teams (six from each division,) the Sabres will need to get into the top six. Boston hasn't missed the playoffs since 2015-16 and have a Stanley Cup finals appearance since then while Washington has the 2018 Stanley Cup and hasn't missed the post season since 2013-14 so putting those two at or near the top of the division isn't much of a reach. The NY Islanders made a run to the 2020 eastern conference finals while Philadelphia lost a seven-game, second round series to those same Islanders and either Pittsburgh, with their long history of making the playoffs during the entirety of the Sidney Crosby-era (2006-present, including three Cups) or an upstart Carolina franchise (two consecutive playoff appearances,) seem poised to take the fifth spot.
That leaves three teams vying for one playoff spot--the New Jersey Devils, NY Rangers and Buffalo Sabres.
Does Buffalo have the wherewithal to take that spot? Adding 2018 league MVP Taylor Hall helps, and so does trading for top-six center Eric Staal but they may need to upgrade goaltending and/or their defense corps if they want to make it.
Three Sabres make IIHF World Junior Team Canada and Team USA squads
On a positive note, Buffalo's prospect pool is getting stronger. As noted in the previous blog their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, should see a sizeable influx of homegrown talent this upcoming season and behind them is another group that's making it's way through the system.
Center Dylan Cozens leads the way with the 2019, seventh-overall pick set to make his second consecutive IIHF World Junior Championship skating for Team Canada. Cozens posted nine points (2+7) in a lesser role for the tournament champion Canadian team last year and will play a larger role this year. Joining him on the squad is Buffalo's 2020 eighth-overall pick Jack Quinn. There were questions concerning Quinn and whether or not he'd make the team but he did and early projections have him skating in a top-six role for the high-profile, talent-laden Canadians.
In addition to those two forwards, it was announced today that defenseman Ryan Johnson has made Team U.S.A. Johnson, a 2019 first round pick (31st-overall) plays in the NCAA for the Minnesota Golden Gophers and will appear in his first World Junior tournament.
Sabres scouting staff growing incrementally
Those three draft picks were from an amateur scouting staff that was definitively hacked in the spring as management decided to get more efficient and/or rebuild the scouting department. After going through the 2020 NHL Entry Draft with a skeleton crew, The Buffalo News reported yesterday that Anders Forsberg will rejoin the Sabres as their scout in Sweden. Forsberg had been a scout for the club from 2015-17 and is back in the fold, albeit in more of a "consulting" role, according to the News, while they also note that "his work will have a heavy emphasis on video."
Forsberg is the second scout brought in since the spring purge bringing their total to eight. He joins Tristan Musser, hired October 7, as new adds under director of scouting Jeremiah Crowe and assistant director Jason Nightingale.
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