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Sabres Offseason Blueprint Prologue: An Identity Crisis

March 21, 2020, 12:29 PM ET [1475 Comments]
Michael Ghofrani
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The Buffalo Sabres carved out something of a defensive identity for themselves this year, spending most of the season in the top 5/10 of the NHL in shot attempts/expected goals against and bottom 5 in shot attempts/expected goals for. The low event, neutral zone hockey kept them in most games, particularly at home where head coach Ralph Krueger could control the matchups. However, if the Sabres want to take that next step forward, they have to play a style of hockey that doesn’t run counter to the core of their team.




From the players they’ve drafted in the top 10, to the ones they’ve invested the most in through trade or signing, the high-end talent on the Sabres is built for high event hockey. Sure, low event hockey reduces risk, but by virtue of the salary cap, the NHL is a strong link sport, meaning your team only goes as far as the best players take it. By using a strategy that runs contrary to the strengths of the high-end talent, the Sabres effectively only got 80-85 cents on the dollar from their best players.



Data via Naturalstattrick.com

These five skaters represent some of the larger investments made by the Sabres and each one of them has seen their on-ice impact drop off from 18/19 to 19/20. Separating the super line from last season plays a role in the drop off, but these totals are driven by the entire five-man unit that is on the ice. In general, there’s just less happening when those top guys are out there and that’s not a situation they thrive in. Brandon Montour suffered the worst of the big five, essentially going from a potential Rasmus Ristolainen replacement to “should they even qualify him?” status.

Several players did see a bump in on ice numbers, like Jake McCabe and Kyle Okposo, who seem to thrive when the pace of the game slows down. While it’s nice to see, it also sheds light on a larger problem. You really don’t want to create a system in which your stars “survive” and the supporting cast thrives. Given the cost to acquire the high-end talent that they did, the optimal solution would be to build a system where they can be at their best, and find the right support players who, even if they don’t thrive in the same way, can at least keep up (at a significantly lower cost).

Making a dramatic shift in philosophy from season to season isn’t without risk. For starters, there will be sizeable increase in both shot volume and quality that the goaltenders have to deal with, and questions were already being asked about the Sabres tandem under the current defensive strategy. There’s also the matter of the coaching staff and making sure the right people are in charge to even implement such a strategy. A change like this will have ripple effects and there will be associated costs but the Sabres don’t have much of a choice. They’re running out of time to build a winner during their core’s window of opportunity so the sooner they make the moves to build the right team around them the better.

In the next part of this series, I’ll be taking a look at which players don’t make the cut for high event hockey. With plenty of uncertainty around where the salary cap will be next season, the Sabres need to create some flexibility to put themselves in a position to add the right players this summer.

Thanks for reading!
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