In the second instalment of this series, I’ll be taking a look at Florida Panthers right winger Evgeny Dadonov, who hit the 25-goal mark for the third straight year since coming over from Russia in 2017.
Key:
CF/CA: shot attempts for/against XGF/XGA: expected goals for/against /60: per 60 minutes Rel Tm: stat relative to teammates OZS: offensive zone starts NZS: neutral zone starts DZS: defensive zone starts
All numbers at 5v5 from naturalstattrick.com
2019-2020 Stats:
Position: Winger Previous Cap Hit: 4 million 5v5 TOI/GP: 12:58
Even after three seasons back in the NHL, Dadonov is still somehow one of the more underrated wingers in the game. He consistently provided the Panthers excellent shot impacts and above average shooting while showing great durability, suiting up in every game the past 2 seasons.
It’s important to understand the limitations of what the Sabres would be adding. Dadonov will very likely hurt your team defensively to some degree as he may have had a hand in Aleksander Barkov’s poor defensive numbers this year. Adding Dadonov to the forwards would give the Sabres a massive upgrade offensively but to avoid turning every one of his shifts into an end to end track meet, they’d likely have to keep him away from Jack Eichel’s line. That’s not a slight to Eichel’s defensively abilities, which saw major improvement in the 2019-20 season, but a centre like Johan Larsson can keep up with Dadonov while shouldering the responsibilities defensively, much like he did in his brief time with Jeff Skinner before Krueger broke that line up.
Like most free agents, age is a concern here and we may already have seen it affect Dadonov’s shooting abilities. He’s seen a decline in 5v5 shooting percentage for the third straight season, going from 13.79% to 9.02% while his shots/60 has increased and individual expected goals for has remained relatively consistent. In other words, he’s taking more shots at about the same quality he usually does, but they’re just not going in like they used to.
While his 5v5 play has seen some decline, the power play impacts remain strong and would give the Sabres another weapon on the first unit and make them far less predictable than they are now.
The Panthers took many of their powerplay shots on the right side (Mike Hoffman’s wheelhouse) but there’s also a decent amount of shots coming from the slot, that’s Dadonov. Watching their power play highlights, you get a real appreciation for his quick release, like this one here.
Scheme Fit:
This is where things get interesting because on the surface a player like Dadonov might actually fit in well with a low event set up. With the volume of shots turned all the way down, shooting talents tend to do the most damage here given their ability to beat their expected goals for (like Eichel this year). However, Dadonov’s declining shooting percentage could indicate a further dip in production in a defensive scheme. If his shooting does continue to decline, he may be better off playing in a set up that involves much more shooting, given that his underlying numbers are still pretty good.
Contract Numbers:
Even if his numbers are declining, Dadonov is still a top six forward and would make the Sabres better but by how much and for how long is the real question. If it takes a five- or six-year deal to add Dadonov to the top six, how many of those seasons are you actually receiving top six production? Given the dip in shooting percentage we’ve already seen, he may only provide top six value for two, maybe three seasons at most. Best case you are getting a top six talent for half the length of his contract, not exactly an ideal way to spend your cap space.
The closest comparable here may be Alexander Radulov, who signed a 5 year/35 million-dollar deal with the Dallas Stars back in 2017 at the age of 30. Dadonov is older, and with no cap growth expected it’s possible he’ll have to bring down his ask on one or both contract length and AAV. On the other hand, the supply of goal scoreres is limited and if one or more of say Tyler Toffoli, Taylor Hall and Mike Hoffman re-sign with their respective clubs, Dadonov would be the top UFA forward by a mile and that demand alone may get him his original asking price.
I would think given their needs up front, the expiring contracts and the desperation to ice a competitive team, the Sabres will be involved here but this is a deal they should walk away from if the term is anything more than four years, and even that is already fairly risky. This is NHL free agency we’re talking about so odds are some team is going to be quick with the long term offer and if you’re going to overpay, it probably shouldn’t be for a scoring winger the wrong side of thirty.
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