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Will you be ready to sit with 20,000 fans as soon the NHL starts? |
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An acquaintance of mine was recently contacted by an NHL team to ascertain his intention regarding his 2020-21 season ticket renewal.
He said he planned to renew, provided the team could answer one question: Who would be sitting next to him?
He was only half-kidding.
The NHL, and every other pro sports league, has to be concerned about how tickets will sell after the country reopens for business after the COVID-19 pandemic runs its course. It’s clear we look forward to the return of sports. But how much is the scare of this virus going to change how we live in general, and specifically, how we congregate?
Even if the government says we can be at ease, how willing are we going to be to slide into a church pew with strangers, or sit in a crowded theater, or be one of 20,000 screaming fans at an NHL game?
We’ve all missed sports. Television ratings will be strong when competition resumes. We all want to watch sports. But after watching the death toll rise from a contagious virus for too many weeks, we won’t be, or shouldn’t be, in a hurry to gather in large groups.
This won’t be like it was post-9/11, or even after the canceled NHL lockout season, when hockey fans were eager to return to arenas. This is a far different situation.
A meaningful percentage of fans will show up. We know that because some people have taken fewer precautions than others when it comes to dealing with this virus. Any hockey fan who partied on the beaches in Florida when millions were in lockdown probably won’t have reservations about sitting in the stands. Plenty of folks don’t consider risk factors in living their lives.
Presumably, young people, who often feel invincible, will show up when the NHL gates open. But initially a significant number of fans could hesitate to venture out to see a live hockey game. It will be challenging to shift from full contact worry to “all clear.”
Will the NHL have to reduce ticket prices to persuade fans to set aside their fears and return to their rinks? And if they lower prices, how long will it be before the ticket price return to this season’s levels?
All of this is impossible to predict because we don’t know how long this crisis will last. It’s also difficult to gauge how scared we really are. It doesn’t help that experts say that even if the virus is contained over the next couple of months, it may return this winter.
There’s always a chance that people, weary of sheltering in place, will overcome their fears in great numbers to watch hockey. But that seems unlikely, given how overwhelmed we are about the viciousness of this virus. The stories are heartbreaking.
More likely, this virus will impact the NHL even after it leaves the headlines.
Loss of ticket revenue could play havoc with the league’s salary cap. Based on history, general managers count on the salary cap remaining the same or rising slightly from season to season. If the salary cap falls significantly post-virus, multiple teams will have trouble being compliant.
Keep in mind that corporate sponsorship could also be down significantly because many businesses have been hurt badly by the virus.
Experts remind us regularly that we don’t decide when life returns to normal. The virus decides.
The recovery of the sports world, however, will also be dependent upon key players. We are not talking Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin and Connor McDavid. The key people are those working on a vaccine for the COVID-19. We won’t feel completely safe until their work is done.
Usually, a new vaccine requires an 18-month process because the vaccine has to be tested in trials. In this case, there's hope the process could be cut down to one year. That would mean people could start being vaccinated in January. But that's only if it all goes perfectly.
When you can receive a COVID-19 vaccination at your pharmacy, that’s when I think the NHL’s fan base returns to normal.
Blogger •HHOF Writer's column on the NHL • 
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