When NHL teams make their first round selections at the NHL draft in Montreal on July 7, they have a 70% chance of acquiring a player who plays 200 or more NHL games.
A review of 10 draft years from 2006 to 2015 showed 200 of the 300 players drafted in the first round have played 200 or more games. The most recent drafts were not analyzed because some players are technically still developing.
The data showed teams picking in the top 15 picks had an 89.3% chance of selecting a player who will play at least 200 games.
That supports the long-held belief that takes time to stock your team from the draft. The NHL had 30 teams in those years they drafted 2,100 players over that decade. Five hundred and five of the drafted players reached 200 NHL games-played. That works out to 50.5 players per draft.
That means teams found, on average, 1.68 players per draft year who played 200 or more games in the NHL. That's just over three players every two drafts. Obviously, teams had better odds when they had more than their allocation of seven picks.
The situation is a bit different now because there are 32 teams. That's 224 players per draft/
This week's Notebook:
2. Colorado Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper came out of his net and moved the puck quickly to earn a secondary assist on Nazem Kadri’s overtime winner in Game 4. He became the first goalie in NHL history to record an OT assist in a Stanley Cup Final game. He is only the fourth goalie, joining Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask and Dominik Hasek, to record an OT assist in any playoff game.
3. The best story going into the 2022 draft is that NHL teams are considering drafting Ivan Miroshnichenko in the first round. The Russian standout was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in March. Recently, doctors told him he can resume playing. The medical news has been good.
4. If you were in charge of the Florida Panthers, would you take Paul Maurice over Barry Trotz? The Panthers need to improve their defense. That sounds like a job for Trotz. Maurice is a quality choice, but Trotz seems like a better fit.
5. The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-for-14 on the power play during this Stanley Cup Final and the Colorado Avalanche are 6-for-13 with the man advantage. Sometimes there is a simple explanation why a team is winning a playoff series.
6. Colorado Avalanche player Mikko Rantanen has eight assists in the first four games of the Stanley Cup Final. That's one short of the NHL record for assists in a Stanley Cup Final. While four players share the official record for most assists in the Final (9), Wayne Gretzky compiled 10 assists in the 1988 championship series including two in the suspended game on May 24. A decision was made at the time to count player statistics as part of their career totals but not as part of official NHL records. Thus, Gretzky’s official count for that series is eight. The ruling on Gretzky's number defies logic.
7. If the Pittsburgh Penguins don’t re-sign Evgeni Malkin, he seems like a natural fit for the Washington Capitals, especially with Nicklas Backstrom’s future jeopardized by a chronic hip problem.
8. Speaking of problems, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has reported that Pierre-Luc Dubois
informed the Winnipeg Jets he doesn't want to sign a long-term deal with the team. He wants to get to his UFA date in 2024. Do you deal him now or in 2023? Aggravating the situation for Winnipeg: Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck also become UFAs in 2024.
9. Since the 2014 Olympics, hockey fans understand that if you need a shootout goal you want TJ Oshie to take it. In the NHL, he has scored on 48.97% of his shootout chances. He has 47 goals in 96 opportunities. But Jonathan Toews, Tyler Seguin, Mats Zuccarello and Mika Zibanejad are also quality choices. Toews holds the NHL record of 51 shootout goals. His scoring rate is 47.2%. Seguin's efficiency is 48.4%, Zuccarello is at 46% and Zibanejad at 44.2.
10. Wednesday was the 40th anniversary of Mike and Marian Ilitch buying the Detroit Red Wings. Since that date, the Red Wings have recorded 1,720 wins. That ranks second among NHL teams. Only the Boston Bruins (1,761) have won more Since 1995-96, the Red Wings rank first with 1,238 wins. The Pittsburgh Penguins (1,217) are second.
11. The San Jose Sharks should be feeling some urgency to hire a new general manager. They have player decisions to make. For example, the team might be able to move defenseman Brent Burns, especially if they are willing to retain some of the $8 million salary cap hit. He is 37, but is still an impact defenseman. It won't be easy because he had a modified no-trade clause. But maybe he would be willing to join a contender.
12. This is the 23rd consecutive season there wasn't a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final. In the World Series and NBA Finals, the longest stretch without a sweep is 12 years.
13. Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper apologized for answering only one question at his press conference following Game 4. He said emotions got the best of him after the overtime loss. His quote was a good one: "What's great about today is that it not yesterday," Cooper said.
14. The Avalanche have won eight road games during this playoff and they are still two short of the NHL record of 10, set by the New Jersey Devils in 1995.
15. A belated happy birthday to Bob Bourne. He was one of the unsung heroes of the New York Islanders’ four consecutive Stanley Cup championships from 1980-83. In those four postseason runs, Bourne scored 31 goals and posted 74 points. Bourne produced 28 points in 20 games in the fourth Cup run. He was +19. The Saskatchewan naive turned 68 two days ago.
16. The Lightning are trying to become the first team in NHL history to overcome a 2-0 series deficit to win in consecutive playoffs rounds.
17. The five teams to win a Stanley Cup by overcoming a 2-0 series deficit in a best-of-seven Final are the 2011 Bruins (4-3 win vs. Vancouver), 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins (4-3 win vs. Detroit), 1971 Montreal Canadiens (4-3 win vs. Chicago), 1966 Montreal Canadiens (4-2 win vs. Detroit) and 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs (4-3 win vs. Detroit). The 1942 Maple Leafs are the only club to claim a championship after rallying from a 3-0 series deficit in the Final.
18. Boston Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark has the NHL's highest shootout save percentage (.878) for a goalie with a minimum 40 saves. He has stopped 36 of 41 shootout attempts. Marc Denis (.854) is second, followed by Mikko Koskinen (.829) and Thatcher Demko (.810). All four of those players are just above the minimum requirement. The best shootout save percentage for a goalie with a significant amount of shootout attempts is Andrei Vasilevskiy's .785
19. Corey Perry is the first player in NHL history to score a goal in the Stanley Cup Final for four different teams (Anaheim Ducks, Dallas Stars, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning).
20. When Andrei Vasilevskiy earned his 10th career win in the Stanley Cup Final, he became the seventh goaltender in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) to record a double-digit win total in the championship series. The others: Ken Dryden (24), Patrick Roy (18), Martin Brodeur
(17), Billy Smith (17), Grant Fuhr (14) and Chris Osgood (11).
21. Montreal Hockey Now reports the Canadiens are receiving numerous trade inquiries about forward Josh Anderson. They are not seeking to deal him but are listening. They will only move him if they are bowled over by an offer that includes young players and draft picks.
22. Draft scuttlebutt I'm not buying: the Canadiens are considering not taking Shane Wright at No. 1 and the New Jersey Devils might trade the No. 2 pick. Shane Wright has been the presumptive No. 1 for a long time. It seems too risky not to take him. And the Devils didn't make the playoffs last season. They should keep the pick.
23. Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon has 104 shots on goal. That's 5.77 shots per game. That's 35 more than any other player has on the Avalanche or the Tampa Bay Lightning.
24. Six years ago yesterday the Vegas Golden Knights were born. They enjoyed instant success. They did everything right. Everyone around the NHL loved the Golden Knights. That's not the case today. The way they operate seems to tick off people around the league.
25. Twenty-one years ago today, on June 23, 2001, Jussi Jokinen was drafted by the Dallas Stars in the sixth round of the NHL draft. He ended up playing 951 NHL regular-season games and 54 playoff games for nine NHL teams. He had stops in Dallas, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Florida. Columbus, Los Angeles, Vancouver and Edmonton. He played more games for the Hurricanes (255) than any other team. He was a popular player in Carolina. At all of his stops, he was known as a clutch performer in the shootouts. He netted 37 shootout goals in 96 attempts. That’s a 38.54% efficiency. He left the NHL in 2018 and then played three seasons in Finland’s top league. He didn’t retire until 2022. Jokinen turned 39 on April 1.