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Sens Recap/DJ Smith continues to be his own worst enemy! |
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Where do we start after the Sens' 5-3 loss to Florida on Saturday?! Well, first and foremost this team lacks a physical presence on the blue line. The opposition needs to feel like someone on the back end will strike fear into any player when they cross that blue line. Instead, opposing teams skate into the Sens' defensive zone right down the middle of the ice as nobody forces the opposition wide with physicality. Teams can get on the forecheck much easier when you don't play the body much, which is why callup Dillon Heatherington should play in place of Nikita Zaitsev. In his limited games last year, Heatherington was very physical and at times a few local media members pointed out how he brought that edge to the Sens' defense core.
Playing Heatherington due to his physical presence is just one aspect as to why he should draw into the lineup for Zaitsev. Erik Brannstrom struggles with Zaitsev as his defense partner as does Chabot. To nobody's surprise, whoever is paired with him, they struggle as Zaitsev doesn't want to handle the puck. He puts his defense partner in awkward positions, creating endless chaos in the defensive zone, while never boxing out in from the net. Yet, DJ Smith gave Zaitsev the second most minutes on the blueline against Florida after being a healthy scratch for five of the first eight games. Go figure! What's more frustrating is that DJ told the media and fanbase the day before the regular season began in Buffalo that the best players would play each night. Unfortunately, he flat-out lied because if that was the case, Zaitsev wouldn't wear a Sens uniform again.
Instead, the fanbase is subjected to double standards set by DJ when it comes to how he uses his personnel. The fact that Zaitsev has seen an increase in TOI is absolutely mind blowing! Too bad DJ doesn't show the same confidence in players like Brannstrom or Holden, as he does with Zaitsev. No wonder players on this team feel like there are two sets of messages with the Sens, one for Zaitsev and one for the rest of the team. Don't think it wasn't a coincidence how the team came out flat in the first period of the Panthers game, getting outshot 24-4 and outplayed in every facet of the game, except in goal. Only to flip the switch for the final two periods. Many players on this team weren't impressed at all when DJ made Nick Holden a healthy scratch against Minnesota when he was coming off his best game of the season. It's one thing to make lineup changes due to injuries or during a losing streak, but to do that to one of the most liked/respected players in the locker room while on a four game winning streak, I can tell you that it didn't go over well at all in the room. As a coach, you need to have the pulse of your team, in DJ's case, he fails in this category more often than not. Players are extremely tired of the double standard with DJ when it comes to how he deploys his blue line and it has gone on for over three seasons here.
Let's take a look at how much Zaitsev has affected this lineup in various ways when he isn't a healthy scratch. The Sens' are 0-3 with him in the lineup. Thomas Chabot is a minus five in the 3 games in which Zaitsev has dressed while being a plus two in the other five games with the team having a record of 4-1. Chabot has to take on a bigger role when Zaitsev is in the lineup while trying to do too much, due to the endless chaos he brings to the ice when he plays. How many times did the Sens bail out Zaitsev for countless mistakes? Those types of stats don't show in the plus/minus category as Zaitsev was extremely lucky he wasn't more than a minus one against Florida. Sadly, the pairing created a team-low 0.12 xGF even though they had the most TOI of the entire defense. The Sens' were 4v5 xGF% is 9.9% per Evolving Hockey, so having Zaitsev on the ice is only slightly better than being on the PK. The Sens were outshot 17-3 over the course of the game when Zaitsev was on the ice in 5v5 situations.
Much of Ottawa's success during the first six games of the season was how few goals they gave up 5v5, but in the last two games, it has been awful allowing seven goals at even strength. Compare that to thirteen in the first six games of the season, it's no coincidence that Zaitsev has been in the lineup for the Sens' worst results during the early part of the season. It forces the coaching staff to play him with multiple partners, while when he isn't in the lineup there's far more consistency with the defense pairings. Here's a telling stat from @everydaysens on Twitter.
Chabot recorded a 12.25 xGF% when paired with Zaitsev (10:45). Chabot recorded a 51.51 xGF% when paired with anyone else (10:01).
I don't want to hear that management is showcasing Zaitsev as we've seen his body of work for over three years now. There's a large enough sample size from scouts and analytics for all GM's in the NHL to know what type of player Zaitsev is. In fact, playing him is only showing everyone that he truly isn't capable of playing at the NHL level anymore. That excuse is the biggest cop-out from Sens' apologists. Mind you, some of the blame has to go on Sens GM Pierre Dorion when it comes to this player. Dorion hasn't addressed the top four RHD issues in the last two off seasons. Plus, if Dorion seriously wants results with this team, then he would be placing Zaitsev on waivers now for the purpose of being sent down to Belleville of the AHL. Nobody can tell me that there aren't far better options in Belleville but DJ's refusal to listen to players and management when it comes to this player should be grounds for dismissal. As a head coach, it's your job to recognize your player's strengths and put them into the best situation possible for a win but that clearly isn't happening here yet again after three frustrating seasons with how he deploys his personnel.
If anything, DJ has helped the agent of Artem Zub with his decisions on defense. Many NHL experts say on the open market that Zub could get a 6-7 year deal as there aren't many quality RHD that can play in your top four. Dorion needs to realize this too as DJ continues to play Zaitsev, he's hurting the team long term when it comes to the salary cap for Ottawa as he's going to have a hard time getting a reasonable deal done with Zub now.
As an NHL personnel director told me on the phone yesterday, DJ only has himself to blame for all the negative attention he has brought on, plus he's putting Zaitsev into situations to fail by even dressing him. The puck doesn't move north enough with this defense, there's far too much east/west with the puck creating no flow, turnovers, and endless breakdowns with the defensive zone structure.
Sens' fans, what would you do if you were DJ Smith when it comes to who/how you would deploy the current defense to offset the loss of Zub?! What would your defense pairings be and who would you call up from Belleville? Thoughts, comments are welcomed.
Thanks for reading.
Kevin
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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