Last night, the Vegas Golden Knights experienced the elite of the Eastern Conference. For one night, Vegas turned into little Toronto as the Maple Leafs (and their passionate fans) made their way to the T-Mobile Arena and took the game to the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite the 6-3 score, there is no need to panic, as Toronto is the definition of an elite hockey club.
Auston Matthews (USA Today Sports)
Last season, the Vegas Golden Knights were one of those elite hockey clubs. Upon Nate Schmidt's return from suspension this season, they again were an elite hockey club. Yet, on February 14th it became very clear to all in attendance, the Golden Knights are no longer an elite hockey club.
This is not a declaration that the Golden Knights are up a creek without a paddle. There is hope. There is potential. Fans, stop burning your jerseys! Ok, well nobody is doing that yet, but you know what I mean. While they were thoroughly outplayed at 5-on-5 by the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights' previous losses haven't been those of a low-level team being outplayed night-in, night-out. Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant had nothing but praise for the opposing Maple Leafs following the loss on Thursday night. When asked about losing a fifth straight game at home, Gallant said, "We've had a great record here, this year we have a great record here. We are playing some good teams. I thought we pissed away a couple at home, but for the most part we played some good teams and they beat us."
Looking back on their past 13 games, the Vegas Golden Knights have indeed played some good teams. In those thirteen games, the Golden Knights are 4-9-0 including a five-game home skid. The first loss in that 13-game stretch was to the San Jose Sharks, who went out and made big moves to become the powerhouse they are today. Vegas then beat the formerly-elite Chicago Blackhawks in overtime, in a back-and-forth battle that they probably should have lost. Next came a 4-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets, an elite team having consistency issues with their talented sniper, Patrick Laine. VGK followed that loss with their most-recent home win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, on January 19th. The last home win for Vegas was on January 19th, almost a whole month ago.
Vegas then lost their next two home games against a solid Minnesota Wild team and the Western Conference number one seed, the Nashville Predators who seem to have their number, with goalie 1B Juuse Saros in net. Saros is racking up wins against the Golden Knights. Vegas went on the road after the Nashville loss for a strange four-game stretch. Losses in Carolina and Florida, two average teams, were followed up with wins in Tampa (of all places) and Detroit. If we did a survey before the trip and asked which team Vegas would most likely lose to on the trip, over 95% would choose Tampa. Maybe the challenge got the guys going? Maybe they wanted to prove they can hang with the cream of the crop? Whatever it was, a Tampa road win is huge and shows what the team can be.
In the last three games, Vegas has dropped home decisions to the good Columbus Blue Jackets, the up-and-coming Arizona Coyotes, and the powerful Toronto Maple Leafs. Two of those three, Vegas could be expected to win. When it comes to Toronto, Vegas was chasing them around, all night, at even strength. With such a deep, dynamic forward group, the Maple Leafs dominated puck possession and shot generation out of the gate. As a whole, Toronto seemed more decisive with the puck and comfortable with it on their stick. Toronto's speed, quickness, and flat out talent forced Vegas into the penalty box a staggering six times, three coming in the opening period. Toronto was able to connect on two of the man advantages, while Vegas scored a shorthanded goal of their own, courtesy of Reilly Smith, just 2:46 into the second period.
Reilly Smith with Paul Stastny (USA Today Sports)
Vegas seemed to have more chances shorthanded than during 5-on-5 play. Smith and William Karlsson played great when down a man, while Cody Eakin and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare forced turnovers and transition chances, as usual, just as a duo with Tomas Nosek (healthy scratch) and Ryan Carpenter (head) out of the lineup. Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny also mixed in on the PK, but Pacioretty seems out of place, down a man. Looking deeper into the metrics, Vegas finished the game with a Corsi For % of 43.02% at 5-on-5 play and 30.43% on the PK. To put the PK total into perspective, Toronto only managed a 7.69%, facing a mediocre Vegas power play unit. Seven shots were generated by the Golden Knights on the PK, from multiple 2-on-1 rushes and a few breakaways. Natural Stat Trick's Gameflow Chart is below (5-on-5) along with the breakdown of shots generated for each team (Corsi).
Vegas' best lines at even strength were the two bottom-six units. A line that has some real growth potential is the third line, now featuring Brandon Pirri and Oscar Lindberg flanking Eakin. Aside from a few defensemen, the bottom sixers led the way in Corsi For % (shot generation versus shot attempts allowed). Some of that can come due to the opposition they faced, but for example, alleged defensive liability , Brandon Pirri spent plenty of even strength time against both of Toronto's elite centers, John Tavares (5:01) and Auston Matthews (3:16). That accounts for 8:17 of five-on-five play against top-level centers, while managing some of the best Corsi numbers on the team. Yes, Matthews scored two goals, including the 100th of his career, but he is a top-10 player in all of the NHL. He put a clinic on multiple Golden Knights players, creating chances and drawing penalties at will. Simply put, he took over the game. Toronto defenseman Morgan Rielly credited that ability saying, "I thought Zach Hyman was outstanding, Auston Matthews was really good too, drawing penalties which leads to our offense on the power play. I thought that was a big part of our game."
Oscar Lindberg (USA Today Sports)
As a group, the bottom-six forwards are very important for Vegas moving forward and last night, Lindberg cashed in on a goal, assisted by Eakin. Lindberg found some room in the slot and banged home a one-time feed from Eakin. With added production from the third line, Vegas can become more off a well-rounded threat, since they aren't being carried by the top line to the extent they were last season. Vegas' two other goals on the night came from Paul Stastny (SH) and William Karlsson.
At practice the following morning, the middle six was mixed up with Eakin and Lindberg skating with Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch skating with Stastny and Pirri (with Nosek as the extra man/scratch). Splitting up Tuch and Pacioretty could be extremely beneficial for the Golden Knights and would allow both men to act as the gunner on their line. When I asked if the changes in practice were permanent, Coach Gallant said that he's not sure as of now, but that when you're losing, you have to change some things up. Oscar Lindberg said of the line with Eakin and Pirri, "We're starting to learn each other's patterns a little bit. I thought we played decent, but overall it was a tough, tough loss for us, for sure." Expanding on partnering with Eakin and Pirri, "we had some good chances last night and didn't capitalize on too much of them, but it was nice to get that goal last night."
Marc-Andre Fleury(USA Today Sports)
Essentially, Vegas needs to figure some things out. In a previous piece, I mentioned that Marc-Andre Fleury looks like a shell of himself. Some of the saves he normally comes up with, that he seems to have no chance on, are not being made anymore. His ability to bail out Vegas' defensive breakdowns has been a godsend for the Golden Knights, and with some rest, he may get back to making them again. On top of freshening up their goalie, the Golden Knights need more identity in the offensive zone. They struggle when teams can keep up with their transition game and at times, they get the puck deep and don't generate many dangerous looks with it. For a team as skilled as Vegas, playing in this forecheck-heavy system seems to be taking away from that talent. On the second line, Alex Tuch seemed to be too passive, playing with guys he presumably watched on TV growing up. Another swap with Reilly Smith may have been better suited, in order to get the top two units rolling a little more consistently, but the change in practice may end up working out for the Golden Knights.
Although it seems like the Golden Knights are in big trouble, they still hold a playoff spot in the last quarter of the season. They have been scoring goals and simply need to make minor changes. Part of the change could be utilizing Jon Merrill more, who has played great defensively of late and made a dazzling pass to Karlsson last night, for Vegas' third goal of the game. Team-leader Deryk Engelland led all players in ice time at the end of the second period, against a fast Toronto team, and that just can't happen. While he is a great locker room guy, Engelland can't be your most-used defenseman with the likes of Nate Schmidt and Brayden McNabb who can play in all situations.
Maple Leaf Fans, Post-Game
Last night's environment felt like a playoff game, with the fanatical Toronto Maple Leaf fans in attendance. Each "Go Knights Go" chant quickly turned into a "Go Leafs Go" chant. Toronto's fans came in as strong and as aggressively as their team which made for a great game. Vegas would have hoped for a better outcome, but games like this happen and with small adjustments, the Golden Knights can be back to the team that VGK fans have become accustomed to watching. As of right now, the Golden Knights are no longer elite, but that can and most likely will, change.
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