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Skjei re-signs for six years, $31.5 million, news on Hayes not as positive
July 29, 2018, 1:56 AM ET [113 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSS • Archive • CONTACT
The Rangers locked up a core member of their blueline, for now and the future, inking Brady Skjei to a six-year,, $31.5 million contract Saturday. the signing avoids Tuesday's arbitration hearing, leaving Kevin Hayes (August 2 hearing) and Ryan Spooner (August 4) as the two remaining restricted free agents. Spooner likely will get a one year deal and the news on Hayes, at least per Larry Brooks (see below), is far from heading in the right direction. (Building the perfect Rangers' team from 1988 to present will resume Monday, barring a Hayes or Spooner signing or deal)

Official press release:






Contract breakdown:



Comparable deals (Skjei's contract more than stacks up with this list):



Advanced metrics look at Skjei:






I wrote extensively in Skjei and his possible contract the past month or so. New York is showing him a major commitment, avoiding a bridge deal and locking him up long-term. The belief has to be he will thrive in new coach David Quinn's system, serving as likely a first of second pair, left-handed d-man. While New York may be slightly overpaying now, if Skjei plays like he did as a rookie and grows from there, then the Rangers will be "underpaying" him in the future. In addition, @HockeyStatMiner tweeted earlier today another key aspect to consider. Ryan McDonagh signed for 7.31% of the cap ceiling on his 6-yr post-ELC deal back in 2013 when he was making $4.7 mil per year. Skjei's 6-yr post-ELC deal is 6.6% of the current cap. Looking at % of cap usage in addition to and many times in place of $ cap figure is the way to go. New York now has $15.5 mil in cap room with Hayes and Spooner unsigned.

This is what I had written about Skjei recently:

July 6:
Skjei is the challenging one. Is he the player that showed so much as a rookie or the one who took a major step back last year. As you have read from me, defensemen growth is not linear. Just because he struggled last season, that’s not an indication that his performance as a rookie was an aberration. Skjei struggles at both ends of the ice but I still believe his upside is tremendous. New York should still lock up Skjei long-term. I would prefer a six-year deal in the $4.5-5 mil range if the Rangers truly believe in him. If there are questions, then go with a four-year and not a bridge deal for the American born blueliner.


July 17:
Skjei is the tougher one. Is he the player we saw rise rapidly as a rookie or the one who struggled as a sophomore? Was he a victim of too much success too soon or fell back under the weight of too high expectations? In addition, I know some feel that the company he kept on the Rangers did him little favors and he would benefit from either living on his own or with different roommates.

Skjei is coming off his three-year, $2.775 million entry-level deal. As a rookie, the odds were very strong that New York would sign Skjei to a long-term deal. During his sophomore season, that view changed for many, believing that the risk was worth the possible reward if Skjei rebounds. The answer as to which direction to go depends on who you feel is the real Skjei and the reason for his decline. In addition, what is your risk/reward tolerance and quotient.

As Shayna Goldman pointed out, Flyers took that risk on Shayne Gostisbehere after a rough second season. Because they extended him long-term after his ELC, they now have a 25-year-old first pair defenseman under contract through 2023 for $4.5 million in cap space. However, the big difference there is that Ghost is much more of an offensive threat than Skjei, especially on the power play, which boosts his value.

Carolina went a similar route with both Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. With Slavin, the Canes' signed him to a seven-year, $37.1 million contract extension with the Hurricanes in July of 2017 that takes effect this year, the 2018-19 season. Pesce inked a a six-year, $24.15 million contract extension with the Hurricanes in August of 2017 following his second season. New York loves to bridge deal their players, but they wisely didn't go that route with Ryan McDonagh, signing their future captain to a six-year deal worth $4.7 mil per, which proved to be a smart signing.

If New York truly believes that Skjei will be their future #1 blueliner, then he should be locked up long-term. Cane's model predicts a one-year deal for Skjei, but if New York did ink him for six years, the AAV would be $4,582,657. To me, a deal in that range for six years is the direction I would go rather than a one- or two-year bridge contract which could cost the Rangers more down the road. Six years at anywhere under $4.85 million and I think New York comes out ahead down the road.


July 22 (comparisons to Matt Dumba after he signed and Brandon Montour based on his arbitration ask, snippets of the blog below)
Skjei is four-months older but has played two fewer full NHL seasons than Dumba. Offensively, Dumba is where we hope Skjei can reach, but the jury is out on that, at least as a goal-scorer. The advanced metrics are relatively close, but Dumba has an edge on Skjei pretty much across the board offensively but I believe Skjei, despite his regression last year, could end up as a better defensive defenseman.

A look at Montour and Skjei shows the Rangers' blueliner as slightly better offensive metrics while Montour has a mild edge defensively. With more experience, there is a fairly good chance he will surpass Skjei in the future. But Skjei's numbers are skewed by his regression last season, which partly could be explained by the defensive system used by the Rangers last season and overall issues the team had. Down the road, if Montour progresses as expected, a contract in line with what Dumba received is more than realistic and a good probabiliity.


This ends the good portion of the show. Brooks' comments today on Hayes and the Rangers , if accurate, are disconcerting on many levels. First and foremost, if New York and the player are still so far apart after the team knew the likely ask for a large portion of time, then GM Jeff Gorton should have made a deal to move him. Second, as Brooks notes, Hayes (if nothing changes), Mats Zuccarello and Spooner, when he signs, are all lame ducks, playing out their deals before unrestricted free agency and therefore likely gone by February 25, 2019. How then, as Brooks noted, is Quinn to allocated playing time. Plus, if Chytil or Andersson or Howden or all three aren't yet ready, then what?

Barring an unforeseen development, the Rangers and Kevin Hayes appear on their way to a one-year contract that will usher the 26-year-old center to unrestricted free agency a year from now … after he is dealt at the deadline for a presumed late first-round draft pick, that is.

Even if the Rangers’ best team has Hayes playing major minutes in the middle, it probably would make the most sense under this scenario to move him to the wing so both Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson get their shots at top-nine assignments at center behind Mika Zibanejad, don’t you think? Maybe that’s the way an opportunity in the middle is also created for Brett Howden


As I wrote in the past (see the July 6 and 17 blogs above referenced for Skjei as well as my blog July 3) on Hayes and as Brooks noted, Hayes' ask of between $5.5 million and $6 million per for five or six years is not too far-fetched and in line with recent signings. San Jose's signed Tomas Hertl for four years at $5.625. Elias Lindholm re-signed for six years and $28.1 million ($4.683 mil AAV) with Calgary while Adam Henrique re-upped for five years with a $5.825 AAV with Anaheim. Plus, I guess we can add in Tom Wilson at six years, $5.167 AAV per season to this list. Hayes' demands are relatively in line with what three three players received. I know he is a polarizing figure to the fan base and clearly the organization, but to just sign him for one year and then lose him to free agency, even with the hopes that he brings in an asset, maybe a late first rounder with a second piece at a minimum, seems a poor utilization of your second or at worst third line center. The adage of you don't know or miss what you have until it's gone applies very well to Hayes.

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