The Rangers head into Monday night's phase II of the Alexis Lafrenière draft lottery, held at 6 p.m. on NBCSN and the NHL Network, with a 1 in 8 shot at the first overall pick. Joining New York in waiting to see which ping-pong balls are drawn will be Edmonton, Florida, Minnesota, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Winnipeg. If the Blueshirts fail to win the lottery, they will pick 10th (if WPG/MIN wins), or 11th (if one of the other 5 teams win) based on point percentage (see below).
With the lottery teams set after Toronto's Game 5 loss to Columbus on Sunday, Lafrenière has a chance to play with Malkin/Crosby, Scheifele/Laine, Zibanejad/Panarin, McDavid/Draisaitl, Matthews/ Tavares/Marner and Barkov/Huberdeau. Add in your favorite Nashville (Forsberg and Josi?) and Minnesota (Fiala and Suter) stars to that list. Just like the NHL drew it up.
Here is how the draft lottery teams rank in terms of points percentages: 1. Minnesota Wild (.558); 2. Winnipeg Jets (.563); 3. New York Rangers (.564); 4t. Florida Panthers (.565); 4t. Nashville Predators (.565); 6. Toronto Maple Leafs (.579); 7. Edmonton Oilers (.585); and 8. Pittsburgh Penguins (.623). You can see why those that were in the first round of the lottery - comprised of the seven teams that failed to be part of the play-in round or round robin tourney - would be displeased that one the eight above have a chance at the first overall pick. As seen below, the bottom three teams in terms of points percentage (Arizona, Chicago and Montreal) are moving on.
If one of the teams with elite stars wins the lottery, the hand wringing and consternation will hit epic proportions. Florida, Nashville or Minnesota getting the first pick likely won't tip the needle too much. Maybe even the same can be said about Winnipeg. But if Pittsburgh or Edmonton or Toronto wins, that din you will hear is the screaming from the mountain tops. The same probably if New York, who has never had the first overall pick, has their pick pong numbers come up. The Rangers moved up to #2 last season, when they selected Kaapo Kakko, but that was in a normal, somewhat traditional season.
I know some have tossed about the idea that if New York wins the pick, they should trade down from one, maybe to Ottawa, in a package deal for their third and fifth pick. To provide more context to what I wrote originally, the Rangers have assets, meaning mainly picks, to trade with the first pick to try and make a deal happen, if they wanted. Part of that may depend on where the Carolina pick is and they also have picks 75, 84, 106, 137, 168, 199, 203 and 204, some of which could be in play. New York could try a package to get both. But, I agree highly unlikely, though it does depend on how Ottawa rates Lafrienere compared to the other prospects at the top of the draft
In addition, others have said since the Rangers need a 2C, maybe Quinton Byfield is the way to go at first overall. In my view, this is where you don't overthink the pick. Take the best available player on the board, then figure it out from there.
Vince Mercogliano gave a nice quick snapshot view of Lafrenière"
The 18-year-old Canadian forward lit it up for Rimouski Oceanic this season, leading the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League with 112 points (35 goals and 77 assists) in 52 games. Lafrenière, a 6-foot-1, 192-pound left winger, also had 10 points (four goals and six assists) in five games for the gold-winning Canadian team in the 2020 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships.
He's noted for his playmaking ability — no surprise considering his lofty stat totals — with strong hockey IQ, skating ability and a highly competitive attitude. Those skills, coupled with his size and willingness to use his physicality, lead scouts to believe he can step into a middle-six role right away. Although, as with most young prospects, he'll have to prove he can hold up defensively.
If the Rangers were to have the good fortune of getting Lafrenière, it's easy to envision him plugging in on their third line behind their top-two left wingers, Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider.
Carolina owns the rights to Toronto's pick, unless the Leafs win the lottery for No. 1. The Hurricanes agreed to send the Rangers whichever is the later of the two picks — and if they lose Toronto's - they will just send the Rangers their own and be left without a first-rounder. We know that the pick will be higher than #16, since seven teams failed to make the postseason while eight more are in the second lottery.
New York needs to root for Carolina to be knocked out as early as possible to get the highest pick possible. In addition, the Rangers have to hope that divisional finals are composed of teams that are 'lower-seeded' than Carolina (ARZ, CBJ, CHI, CGY, DAL, MTL, NYI, VAN), resulting in the 'Canes pick being higher in the draft, even if they do advance a round. The only certainty is that the Rangers will have a second pick in the first round, the where is the undetermined component.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»