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Rangers’ Karlsson Konundrum - third party for deal or acquirer?

July 8, 2018, 12:24 PM ET [132 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
In non Erik Karlsson news, one possible Rangers’ target re-signed in San Jose. Dylan DeMelo, who I had wanted New. York to sign, went back to the Sharks for two years at 900K per season. Personally, that’s a steal to a contract for a player who could have slid onto the right side of the blue line for New York. In addition, Colin Miller signed a four-year deal with a $3.875 million AAV to remain in Las Vegas. As we talk possible extension for Brady Skjei, look at Miller’a advanced metrics compared to Skjei and you will see Miller has outplayed Skjei, though their 2016-17 seasons’ are much closer.



Larry Brooks today laid out the Rangers’ Karlsson Conundrum, which is something we have discussed previously. Your view on which way New York should proceed depends on where you stand on what should be the extent of the rebuild and when that rebuild / retool should be accelerated. Karlsson may be the tipping point, despite the Rangers sitting in the early stages of a rebuild. Perhaps waiting for Artemi Panarin, who be 27 when he becomes a free agent after the season, is the wiser course of action. If really a long-term thinker, then maybe it's not until 2020-21, though that's the far minority opinion.

This is what Brooks wrote and my view after:

But here are one observation plus one question:

First, the observation. If a team approaches every transaction from a “We’re not ready to win,” perspective, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Second, the question: At what price would, could or should the Rangers consider trading for the 28-year-old, whose contract, once extended for eight years at an estimated $90 million, would bring Karlsson through his age 36 season?

When the Rangers and Bruins were engaged on Rick Nash (and, for a time, Ryan McDonagh) leading up to the deadline, Boston walled off its most highly regarded prospects. So you would expect Gorton to do the same in any conversation with his Ottawa counterpart, Pierre Dorion

Walled off: Chris Kreider, Brady Skjei, Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Vitali Kravtsov, Libor Hajek, Ryan Lindgren, Brett Howden and Igor Shestyorkin. Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal have no-moves; Kevin Shattenkirk has a modified no-trade that could include Ottawa.

Thus, among the available: Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes, Vlad Namestnikov, Pavel Buchnevich, Mats Zuccarello, Jimmy Vesey, Jesper Fast, Boo Nieves, Neal Pionk, Nils Lundkvist, K’Andre Miller, Tony DeAngelo, Yegor Rykov and Alex Georgiev.

Would you give the Senators three of the above plus next year’s first-rounder in exchange for Karlsson, believing that a year from now the Rangers could have a clear shot at adding on by signing prospective free agent winger Artemi Panarin?

Figure the Senators, on the lookout for young and inexpensive, would take Buchnevich, Georgiev and Pionk or Lundkvist plus the first-rounder they don’t have next June, sacrificed as a consequence of keeping this year’s fourth-overall in order to select Brady Tkachuk while sacrificing next year’s first to the Avalanche to complete the deal for Matt Duchene.

Would that be too much for the Rangers? Would the cost of the contract and nine-year commitment to a world-class athlete who has dealt with serious foot issues be too much in themselves? Or would Gorton be crazy to pass on this hypothetical deal?

These are questions that represent a mere philosophical exercise. Still, acquiring a singular difference-maker is perhaps the most difficult challenge confronting a GM whose team doesn’t bottom out or hit the lottery.

So what is too much for a rebuilding team to yield in exchange for that kind of player, especially when that player is 28 years old? One day, the question may be more than academic.


I understand both viewpoints. Acquiring Karlsson gives New York a difference maker in general but especially one from the blue line, who would be a first pair, right-handed defenseman. The Rangers currently have the cap room now and likely in the future to sign Karlsson to a long term extension. One main question has to be does that preclude New York from adding a stud top-line winger like Panarin, if and when he becomes available during or after the season.

The cons have been well documented. First, the cost to acquire. Who from that list are you willing to deal? For me, it’s Nam, Zucc, Vesey, Nieves and a pick for a player that as of now is a rental, with the hopes to turn him into a longer term asset. In addition, what if Ottawa wants one or two players from the “untouchable” list? Is that a deal breaker? Would it matter if Chytil or Andersson? Plus how long do you believe the rebuild should last and are you accelerating the process that just began last year?

I am pretty sure I have given my view in the past but here we go again. I love Karlsson, let me state that up front. He is an absolute dominant weapon offensively who has become a beast defensively, due his ability to control the game through puck possession but willingness to block shots and dish out hits. Those are just some of the pros to acquire him.

But the ankle surgery and how that might impact him in the future is a major concern. In essence half his ankle was removed and repaired, which should raise your antenna as to how that might be a concern down the road. Add in the minutes played and wear and tear since he went pro and that’s a second strike. Then pile on the cost to acquire and aspect of locking him up for eight years at $11 mil per, even though that’s less of a percentage of the cap that a few years ago when for example Lundqvist was given $8.5 mil per season, and you have two more notches on the right side of the pro/con ledger.

I think all of us are split on which view to follow. New York may be in the same boat, possibly explaining why the vacillate from playing the possible role of facilitating a deal as a third team in or main acquirer, as been rumored lately, in addition, for all those tired of hearing the name Karlsson, just think back to the Rick Nash talks and how long those took to come to fruition and you will see we may just be scratching the surface of the trade process.
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