Hello!

With a 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins, the Capitals concluded somewhat of roller coaster round-robin series. There are obviously some things the Caps need to work on but also a lot of really positive parts of the game that Caps fans should be incredibly excited about heading into the first-round matchup against the New York Islanders.

Why Caps Fans Have Reason to Be Excited:

Braden Holtby – He was hands-down the Capitals MVP during the round-robin. He played amazing! Heading into the NHL pause, Holtby’s performance during the regular season could be characterized as average at best. There is no other way to put it other than he was just not himself. In a contract year with a rookie sensation playing well behind him, Holtby struggled to provide his consistent Vezina-caliber goaltending that so many Capitals fans are used to. There were 57 goalies who played 20 or more games during the regular season. Of those 57 goalies, Holtby ranked 52nd with a .897 SV% and 47th with a 3.11 GAA. These are not stellar numbers for the former Vezina Trophy winner. Moving forward, it is clear the NHL pause helped Holtby reset something because WOW he looked so freaking solid in the three round-robin games. Of the 35 goalies who have started this postseason, Holtby was ranked 16th with a .925 SV% and 14th with a 1.98 GAA. If Holtby was giving up a goal, it was usually the defense putting him in a tough spot. Had it not been for Holtby, Philly would have put up seven goals on the Caps. Goalies can steal a series and if for any reason the Caps struggle against the Islanders, it may be Holtby who we are talking about as the savior of the series.

Penalty Kill – The Penalty kill went a perfect 8 for 8 in the three round-robin games. The Capitals were the 6th ranked PK in the league during the regular season at 82.6%. It is reassuring to know they have maintained this level of penalty kill after such a long layoff. While the sample size is small, it should be noted they killed off all six penalties against arguably the best team in the league right now, the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers had the 9th best Power Play in the league from February 1st and on. During the regular season, the Islanders had the 24th ranked PP at 17.4%. On paper, the Caps PK has the sizeable advantage here. During the playoffs against Florida, the Islanders did convert 4 of their 16 PP chances for a 25% PP average. It is an impressive improvement from the regular season against the 20th ranked Florida Panther PK. It will be interesting to see if the NYI can continue that production against a stingy Caps PK.

Why Caps Fans Have Reason for Concern:

John Carlson’s Health – Carlson was injured in the exhibition game against Carolina and has not played in a game since. He has been in and out of practice which is encouraging. Coach Reirden is “hopeful” Carlson can suit up, but I would not be surprised if he misses game a game or two. I really hope I am wrong. Carlson is having his best season yet and is the odds favorite to win the Norris Trophy with a 15-60-75 stat line, 10 points ahead of Roman Josi at 16-49-65. In addition, Carlson is the quarterback of the Power Play. He is usually the guy feeding Ovi for the one-timer from his office. Without Carlson at the point, it further damages an already struggling power play. After going 1 for 10 on the PP during the round-robin, the Capitals could use Carlson back in the lineup among other reasons. Get well soon, Johnny!!!

Cold Offense vs Elite Defense: The Caps really struggled to generate offense in the three round-robin games. The collective effort just did not appear evident on a consistent basis. Of 24 teams during the qualifying round, the Caps ranked 20th at 1.67 goals/game and 23rd at 25 shots/game. These aren’t the type of offensive numbers you want heading into a matchup against one of the best defensively coached teams in the league. The Islanders do not give up a lot of chances. The Islanders ranked 2nd best in Shots Against per game at 25.8 and ranked 5th best in GA/Game at 1.75 goal/game. With these trends, expect a majority of these games to be very low scoring. Take the UNDER!!!

Thanks for reading! More on the matchup against the Islanders here shortly!

GO CAPS!!!

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