Quick Hits: October 12, 2018
1) After a Thursday off-day on the heels of a back-to-back home/road set of games, the Flyers (2-2-0) return to practice on Friday at the Skate Zone in Voorhees in preparation for a rematch with the defending Western Conference champion Vegas Golden Knights (1-4-0). Practice is slated for 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Saturday's matinee with Vegas, whom the Flyers beat 5-2 on the road on opening night, is a good opportunity for Philly to sweep the two-game season series. For one thing, Vegas will be playing for the third time in less than four evenings and for the fourth time in less than six evenings while the Flyers will have had two days and nights to recuperate from their back-to-back games and travel. Even if Vegas were playing well right now, Saturday's game would be tough sledding for them when looking at the schedule.
Last season at least, the Flyers usually took care of business when they had a major fatigue factor edge: a three-in-four, four-in-six with constant travel is a more significant disadvantage vs. a rested team than being on a back-to-back with rest on other side. Most notably, the Flyers dismantled the Washington Capitals (Philly home opener) and beat the Winnipeg Jets at the Wells Fargo Center under similar sets of conditions.
Fatigue factor edge or not, in order to win the game on Saturday, the Flyers will have to play a better 200-foot game than they have done in any of their last three games, including Wednesday's 7-4 win in Ottawa. The Flyers have struggled mightily on the defensive side of the puck thus far through four games.
According to the stats on
NaturalStatTrick.com, the Flyers have yielded an unacceptable 46 high-danger scoring chances (to generating 26 high-danger scoring chances of their own) through the first four games of the season. A more accurate reflection of the overall work that Brian Elliott (first three games) and Calvin Pickard (Ottawa game) have turned in than their pedestrian overall save percentages has been the Flyers goalies' collective .913 save percentage thus far on high-danger changes. By comparison, Vegas' Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban have a combined .844 save percentage thus far on high-danger chances.
During the opening-night game in Vegas, the Flyers got off to a poor start but eventually started to generate transitional chances on the Golden Knights. That same trend has continued through subsequent games for the Golden Knights.
On a leaguewide basis, goals, scoring chances and shooting percentages are way up early in the season. It's not just the Flyers and Golden Knights that are having issues keeping the puck of their net. Higher scoring rates are common in October, but the sheer volume of high-scoring games is more prevalent than normal. Eventually, it'll settle back down, even with the latest change in goalie equipment specifications.
2) A big part of the high rates of scoring leaguewide so far has been the volume of power play goals. The Flyers have started off at a robust 25 percent (5-for-20) -- a rate that would often lead the league if sustained for a full season -- but are only tied for 10th in power play conversion percentage over the first week-plus of the season. There are 17 teams thus far who have converted on 20 percent or more of their power plays. All of these numbers will inevitably drop and go back closer to their norms.
3) Penalty killing issues are no new problem for the Flyers, however. Statistically, after the Flyers started the season at 6-for-7 in the first two games, they've gone just 7-for-12 over the last two. Anecdotally, the Flyers seem to be doing an improved job at disrupting or denying entries into their zone. However, once the opposition is in the attack zone, the Flyers have continued many of their long-time struggles.
In the last two games, there have been three opposing PPGs that I would characterize as being caused by overly passive box play with soft coverage of the high-danger areas in front of the net, across the slots and out to the hash marks. That's not a new problem or an aberration: it's one of the root cause areas of why the Flyers' PK has been below 80 percent in three of the last four seasons (2014-15, 2016-17 and 2017-18).
That's not the only root cause, however. Execution failures are killers, too. The first Ottawa power play goal on Wednesday, apart from going off two Senators players' skates, would not have happened if the Flyers had not botched a clearing opportunity beforehand. In the San Jose game, there was a situation where a shot got partially blocked but was deflected right to Evander Kane. Flyers penalty killer Oskar Lindblom had the right idea to try to mute the shot, but the unpredictability of where the puck will go on a partial block/deflection is why it's vital to block the puck entirely or it could it could wind up doing more harm than good.
The final component is the PKers trying to make sure their goalie can see the puck and for the goalies themselves to track it even when there is some traffic in front. Thus far, the Flyers' goaltenders have done a pretty good job in that department on the PK. If they hadn't the numbers would be even worse than the current 13 for 19.
Taken on the whole, the Flyers can ill-afford another sub-80 percent season on the PK. Yes, I do think there will be a change in PK coach if the bottom line does not improve.
4) The Flyers announced on Thursday that Nolan Patrick would miss seven to 10 days with an upper-body injury sustained in the first period of the game in Ottawa. While it cannot be said for certain that Patrick did not suffer a concussion but has a different issue, the circumstantial evidence suggests that.
First of all, when players have concussions nowadays, NHL teams avoid putting specific timetables on a return; especially one day after it was incurred. Last season after Patrick hit his head on the boards in a home game against Anaheim, Patrick was listed as day-to-day for almost the entire duration of his absence; even when he went on back-dated IR.
Secondly, on his final shift after the stick he took to the face, the hit --really, more of a slight bump -- Patrick took seemed pretty innocuous in terms of likelihood of causing a concussion. His shoulder/ midsection took most of the impact. While it is still possible to sustain a whiplash-like concussion, Patrick didn't appear woozy as he skated back to his own zone and then off to the bench before leaving the game.
This is all speculation. But if he indeed misses only a week to 10 days, it could have been much worse. The biggest concern is that the lineup is already missing James van Riemsdyk. For the time being, Jordan Weal will go back to center on line 2 unless the Flyers make a recall from the Phantoms or if Corban Knight is imminently activated from injured reserve. If Knight is activated, however, I suspect that Jori Lehterä (who filled in at C2 after Patrick went down in Ottawa) may remain in Patrick's spot for another game. Friday's practice should give some indication of the immediate lineup plan in Patrick's absence.
5) The Phantoms (1-0-0) return to action tonight at the PPL Center in the front end of a home-and-home set with the Springfield Thunderbirds. The return match is in Springfield on Saturday.
6) Over on the Flyers' official website, I have written a roundup article on the Flyers prospects in the CHL and NCAA:
Click here.
7) Congratulations to longtime Flyers broadcaster Steve Coates for his induction into the Michigan Tech Sports Hall of Fame. With Coatesy heading out of town this weekend for his induction, Chris Therien will be filling in on radio analyst duties for Saturday's game. Bundy will actually being pulled down triple duty, since he's also doing pregame and postgame studio analysis on television. Chris and I will also soon record the new episode of "Bundy and Bill's Real Deal Hockey" for
FlyersRadio247.com.
8) 5th Annual AHA Showcase: At 7:30 p.m. tonight, the Flyers Alumni Team will be in fundraising action at Revolution Ice Gardens (1621 Mearns Road, Warminster, PA) in the annual Athletes Helping Athletes (AHA) Showcase. The mission of Athletes Helping Athletes is to connect local special needs athletes with mainstream student-athletes in a spirit of friendship for their mutual benefit and inspiration. Participating Flyers Alumni players include Nick Schultz (making his Alumni Team debut), Joe Watson, Bob "the Hound" Kelly, Riley Cote, Terry Carkner, Brad Marsh and Phantoms fan favorite Frank "the Animal" Bialowas.
9) October 12 Flyers Alumni birthdays: Dave Brown (1962), J.J. Daigneault (1965), Randy Robitaille (1975).
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