Breaking Down Couturier's Season
Given his abbreviated training camp and preseason, it was not really a big surprise when Sean Couturier got out of the gates slowly this season. It wasn't just on the offensive side of the puck. The center, who was a Selke Trophy finalist last year and an offseason favorite to win it in 2018-19, also was uncharacteristically inconsistent in some of his own-zone play in the early weeks of the season.
Ever since the Flyers embarked on their California and Arizona four-game road trip around Halloween to early November, Couturier started to individually look more like himself. Unfortunately, the team as a whole went through lengthier prolonged down stretches (1-5-1 over the final six games of Ron Hextall's GM tenure and first post-Hexy game, 1-3-1 over the final road trip of Dave Hakstol's coaching tenure, 0-6-2 in the first eight post-Christmas games under Scott Gordon) than high points (5-0-1 stretch from Oct. 30 to Nov. 10, winning 3 of first 4 under Scott Gordon, current 4-1-0 stretch and three-game winning streak).
As for Couturier individually, he has gradually gotten back over his last 35 games to something more closely resembling the level play he showed last season. The games break down as such:
* At least one point in 24 of the 35 games.
* Overall production of 16 goals, 20 assists and 36 points.
* Currently active six-game point streak (4g, 6a, 10pts).
* First career regular season hat trick (2 playoff hat tricks) on Jan. 16 vs. Boston.
* From a puck possession metric, he leads all Flyers who played at least 10 games in that span with his overall 55.1 Corsi (52.1 Corsi/Close) and 57.0 Fenwick (54.8 Fenwick/Close).
* 85:53 penalty killing minutes, 2nd on the team (Scott Laughton leads with 86:53).
* Six shorthanded blocked shots (tops among Flyers forwards, fifth overall on team).
* Only one shorthanded giveaway charged to him.
* 11 shorthanded shots on goal (tops on team, Laughton 2nd with eight shots).
* 38-31 on shorthanded faceoffs (Claude Giroux leads team at 40-31).
* Four shorthanded takeaways (Laughton has six, Giroux has five).
Simmonds' Slow Start Not Unexpected
Wayne Simmonds is another Flyer who had an abbreviated preseason. In his case, it was due to his recovery timetable from offseason surgery to repair a midline pelvic tear. Right before the start of camp, former Flyers general manager Ron Hextall expressed confidence that the 30-year-old power forward would be able to avoid the struggles that quite often accompany players in their first half to three-quarters of a season after coming back from core muscle surgery.
I have to admit that I was skeptical of the notion that Simmonds would be just fine, without the usual struggles into the next calendar year. Hexy cited Jamie Benn's Art Ross Trophy season in 2014-15 as an example of a player who had few, if any issues, bouncing right back to form after undergoing a form of core muscle surgery during the offseason (Benn later needed another one after his Art Ross winning season).
By my recollection, Benn was not himself early that season but then came on strong in the second half and closed out like gangbusters. Now that the Flyers are in their bye week, I had opportunity to research Benn's progression in the season Hextall cited. Sure enough, Benn was actually an example of a player who DID need half of a season to get rolling after the surgery. This was his month-by-month breakdown.
Oct. 2014: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PTS
Nov. 2014: 14 GP, 3 G, 9 A, 12 PTS
Dec. 2014: 11 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 PTS
Jan. 2015: 12 GP, 5 G, 7 A, 12 PTS
Feb. 2015: 13 GP, 7 G, 8 A, 15 PTS
Mar. 2015: 15 GP, 5 G, 9 A, 14 PTS
Apr. 2015: 5 GP, 7 G, 6 A, 13 PTS
Getting back to Simmonds, last season he got off to a strong start on sheer adrenaline despite already knowing he'd need surgery at some point. Over the first seven games, he notched five goals and seven points including an opening night hat trick. Thereafter, much of the season was a struggle for Simmonds, especially at 5-on-5.
This season, after the surgery and shortened training camp, Simmonds had a similar rush of early season adrenaline with five goals (three power play) and six points through the first seven games of October. Then he really struggled pretty much in every facet of his game for the rest of the 2018 calendar year.
Over his next 30 games, Simmonds scratched out six goals (one power play) and 10 points while also struggling defensively and losing a large percentage of his puck battles. Forechecking effectiveness and battles in the trenches to me, are the number one indicator of whether Simmonds is on his game, above even his goal scoring. By the old-fashioned eye test, he's not all the way in those areas yet but over the last couple weeks has been moving in a positive direction.
Simmonds had only one point (a Jan. 3 power play goal in the third period of an ultimately unsuccessful comeback against Carolina) in the first four games of January. Gradually over the course of this month, he has started to play more effectively. The pucks have also gone in a bit more frequently. Presently, he has a three-game point streak and three goals (five points) over the last six games.
Wherever Simmonds' next contract will be (whether in Philly or elsewhere), his style of play and necessities for being effective -- battling for pucks on the walls, performing power play netfront duties, bringing some physical presence -- will be the same. He also brings a whole lot of intangibles that no stat chart can adequately quantify. That is why the Flyers have so many teams interested in acquiring him even if only as a rental.
If and when he moves on, Simmonds will be sorely missed in a variety of ways that those only look at numbers (who only see a "depreciating asset") often struggle to grasp. Any player in the NHL would love to have Simmonds as a teammate on the ice and in the room and as someone to whom they can turn off the ice whenever needed. No one enjoys lining up against him, not just because of his physical toughness but because he never stops competing as if his roster spot depends on it.
No one is irreplaceable in the long haul. The Flyers core group that has been together now for eight season -- Claude Giroux, Couturier, Jakub Voracek, and Simmonds -- is likely to see changes within it by the start of next season. Simmonds, as an impending UFA, could be the first to go from that group. Giroux and Couturier are almost certainly staying put for years to come. Voracek's situation is the hardest to predict.
I digress. Diving back into the statistical breakdown of his season, Simmonds has been credited with 20 hits over the last 10 games; January to date is tied for his highest per-game credited hits volume month of the season, although the monthly variation has actually been negligible. He's pretty much been at an average two-per-game all season. That's consistent with his every-game approach and no surprise to see such little variance.
In terms of Simmonds' on-ice shot attempt numbers, here's the month-to-month: he was 42.1% Corsi (41.9% Corsi/Close) and 41.7% Fenwick (42.9% Fenwick/Close) with a 26/41 ratio of offensive zone FO starts vs. defensive at 5-on-1, 53.3% Corsi (56.5% Corsi/Close) and 53.5% Fenwick (55.8% Fenwick/Close) with a 44/40 offensive/defensive faceoff start ratio in November, 48.51% Corsi (45.5% Corsi/Close) and 50.5% Fenwick (47.3% Fenwick/Close) with a 54/50 offensive/defensive zone 5-on-5 shift start ratio in December and, to date in January, 47.1% Corsi (44.8% Corsi/Close) and 45.8% Fenwick (43.1% Fenwick/Close) with 35/48 ratio of offensive zone starts vs. defensive zone starts at 5-on-5.
The 'Hart' Effect
To this day, I tend to worry much more about shot attempt stats -- especially in terms of location/quality -- on a teamwide basis than individually. It should be noted that the Flyers as a team have been upside down in their shot attempt numbers this season: the recent stretch of wins have had awful shot attempt disparities on the negative side yet when the team was previously in the top one-third of those areas, they couldn't buy a win.
Much of this, quite frankly, has been due to goaltending. With Carter Hart or Brian Elliott in goal, the Flyers had a chance to win most nights. With the other five goaltenders, to varying degrees and with a handful of individual game exceptions, even when the overall process has been pretty good, the goalie play has too often sunk the team.
Why I Disagree with 'Lose for Hughes'
Over on the Flyers' official website, broadcaster Jim Jackson has written his latest
View from the Booth column. It's a good read, with J.J. weighing in on topics ranging from "Lose for Hughes" to the play of Carter Hart and other young players on the team, the outlook one month ahead of the NHL trade deadline and candidates for NHL callup from the Phantoms over the rest of this season.
I am like-minded with Jim, as well as the Athletic's Charlie O'Connor, when it comes to disagreeing with the "lose for Hughes" argument. There is a difference, as I see it, between being sellers at the deadline -- which I think most of us agree is inevitable (it's already started to some degree) and understandable -- and actively trying to finish with the bottom record in the NHL.
To me, Flyers fans who beat the "lose for Hughes" drum haven't really thought through the risk vs. reward involved. First and foremost, you have to start with looking at WHY the Flyers' record is what it is this season and then exactly would it would entail for the team to sink back to the bottom and stay there.
* We'll start with goaltending stability. As mentioned earlier, the lack of goaltending stability, due to injuries and/or subpar performance, has sunk the team's fortunes this season. The fact that seven different goalies have made starts for this team says it all. But as long as Carter Hart is playing on the NHL roster, which scenario would be better for him and the team: a) the 20-year-old continues to consistently give his team a chance to win and provides bonafide hope in preparing for next year with him as a part of an upgraded tandem or b) he struggles after the All-Star break and/or is sent back to the Phantoms?
* Now let's look at the blueline. A second huge reason for the Flyers' drop from last year's 98-point season (and top-5 pace in the second half) to where they are now is that neither Ivan Provorov nor Shayne Gostisbehere -- the two players MOST counted on for all-around reliability (Provorov) and offensive push (Ghost) -- had had seasons to date that have come anywhere close to the team's expectations or the standards they set for themselves. Wouldn't it be preferable for the team's outlook heading into the offseason if one or both come out after the break and finish strong?
They'll still need more help, even beyond Travis Sanheim continuing his overall upward trend and Radko Gudas' strong bounceback season. The Flyers need a high-caliber veteran (but not too old of one) who can give them 20+ quality minutes a night against opposing top lines. Provorov's RFA re-sign could prove to be an arduous negotiation for Chuck Fletcher (things went nowhere last summer despite Hextall's efforts to at least get the ball rolling, and agent Mark Gandler is a notoriously tough in his negotiation tactics), but that is a topic for a later date.
For now, suffice it to say the 2018-19 Flyers season probably would have looked a lot different at the bye week if Provorov and Ghost had carried over their play from last season. This time would probably at least be on the playoff bubble and, combined with better goalie play, perhaps even in at least a wildcard spot. At bare minimum, the Flyers 5-on-5 goal differentials would look a hell of a lot better.
Moving forward the rest of this season and planning for next year, it would be a huge relief to get at least one of those players -- and preferably both -- back atop their games.
* From here, we'll go to the young forwards who were expected to take bigger bites of the apple in 2018-19: third-year right winger Travis Konecny, second-year center Nolan Patrick and still-a-rookie-this-season Oskar Lindblom. All three went varying degrees of offensive droughts this season, all three have recently shown signs of emerging under Scott Gordon as better and bigger-minute players than they were previously.
I will discuss Konecny and Lindblom in future blogs. I talked about Patrick's
comeback of confidence in working through his lengthy offensive drought.
Plain and simple, if Konecny and Patrick have strong offensive second halves and Lindblom consistently emerges as an effective penalty killing winger who can also chip in points while play on the second or third line, the Flyers' forward group suddenly starts to look much deeper and more potent than has all season. It won't have be Giroux, Couturier, JVR, Voracek, Simmonds carrying the entire load or else the team is in danger of a shutout loss or one-goal night.
* Combined between these homegrown forwards, defensemen Provorov, Sanheim, Gostisbehere, and Robert Hägg (with Sam Morin pushing for an NHL opportunity after the better part of a year-and-a-half lost due to core muscle and then ACL injuries plus Phil Myers getting close to his first NHL recall) plus goaltender Hart, there has been a whole lot of resources spent and long-term NHL hopes pinned on their collective and individual development.
For the Flyers to finish 30th or 31st in the NHL, it would mean that most or all of the youth influx struggles to find its footing after the break. Given the extent and prolonged stretches during the first half in which young players played with low confidence and effectiveness, the implications of that being a post-break reality, too, are rather unpleasant to consider.
If these struggles last all year and the recent upswings are a mirage, the implication is that
a) most of the kids aren't ready to be core pieces in next year's planning or b) they may not even be capable of doing so.
The first scenario would be discouraging and the second scenario would be downright terrifying. Thankfully, I don't think that's the case. I think most of these players are going through all the usual trials and tribulations of the learning curve as they figure out what does and does not work for them. Sometimes, a little step backward and simplifying things until the player gets rolling again makes a big difference going forward.
It would be great if every development path was a neat-and-tidy upwards arrow. That is rarely the case. However, there's a difference between a staccato path and a somewhat-below-expectations season and an outright disastrous campaign. The latter can a very difficult bounceback for a young player. There's rarely a next-year "magic switch" to flip.
A bit of continued inconsistency and streaky play from the Flyers players who are early in their NHL careers would not be a cause for concern moving forward. That's par for the course. The goal here is realistic progression by the end of the season.
On the flip side, if there's another wave of month-long to six-plus week dry spells for the young top-9 group forwards, it would be a concern. The Flyers don't need the kids to do the primary heavy lifting yet but they do need for Patrick and Lindblom to do significantly better than put up 35-game stretches with production like the latter-day equivalents of the 2006-07 Flyers performances of then-prospects Stefan Ruzicka and Ryan Potulny or that of Andreas Nödl a few years late. If and when defenseman Myers comes up, I'd personally like to see him succeed in Philly whereas someone like Alexandre Picard (people forget how high the Flyers were on him as a prospect ca. 2005 and 2006, especially after he held his own in the Calder Cup playoffs) struggled mightily in the NHL after his Flyers callup and wound up a journeyman depth D.
* Add the sum of these parts. If Hart continues to play well, the defense trends the right way, and the Flyers start showing signs of developing scoring depth irrespective of what happens with Simmonds and/or other moves, the team probably won't finish in the bottom three of the NHL. However, the club this season still buried itself too deep in the first half to be anything other than a lottery team.
Lottery luck will be whatever it will be. The current-day lottery system is designed to discourage tanking. Finish dead last in the regular season and there is a 50.6 percent chance of picking fourth and only an 18.5 percent chance of getting the first selection (16.5 percent to pick second and 14.4 percent to pick third).
If things work out that the Flyers win the lottery and are able to pick Jack Hughes first or select Kaapo Kakko second, that would be great. It would only add to top end of the farm system with another potential impact player -- nothing is ever a guarantee, but there is certainly a realistic possibility -- and create more flexibility for other moves made from strength rather than weakness. That's especially true with all of the other prospects currently playing below the NHL level, plus the salary cap room the organization currently holds.
If you are eager to see the Flyers sustain the sort of collateral damage the rest of this season that it would take for the club to have an 18.5 percent chance at drafting Hughes (or a 16.5 percent chance at Kakko), that's your prerogative. I think it's foolhardy. That's not a slight on Hughes or Kakko, both of whom are excellent prospects
Phantoms Update
The Phantoms are back in action on Wednesday, hosting the Hershey Bears. Alex Lyon is the probable starting goaltender for Lehigh Valley. Anthony Stolarz, who made two conditioning assignment starts for the Phantoms (including a 44-save effort on Monday), is apparently finished with the rehab stint. The next step may be a return to the Flyers, either in tandem with Hart or with veteran Mike McKenna remaining in a backup role in a three-goalie arrangement.
The team hopes that its day-to-day injured forwards -- veteran Greg Carey, second-year center Mikhail Vorobyev and winger Tyrell Goulbourne -- will start to return to the lineup. The other injuries that have beset the team are all longer-term issues.
2019 Quebec Pee Wee Tournament
Full training camp opened on Jan. 21 for the Flyers Pee Wee team. The team opens its tournament schedule on Feb. 16th against the Buffalo Jr. Sabres. Oddly enough, the last time the Jr. Sabres played the Flyers was in the 2013 quarterfinals. Back then, a young forward from New York State but with Bucks County, PA roots was a standout on the Buffalo side. His name: Joel Farabee.
Look for an upcoming article on the Flyers' official website about this year's tournament and the life experiences it provides -- off-ice as well as on the ice -- for the young players.
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