The New York Islanders’ season came to an end with a Game 5 loss on Tuesday, falling in the first round of the playoffs to the Carolina Hurricanes once again.
The loss likely didn’t come as a huge surprise to many, with the Hurricanes being tagged as the heavy favourites heading into the series. The Islanders quickly fell into a 3-0 hole, and while a double-overtime Game 4 win extended the series, Carolina closed things out in Game 5.
Comparing the Islanders’ year to any pre-season expectations though, the outcome was always a fairly likely one. I put out an article in August touching on expectations for the season, and at that time, here’s where I stood:
'For the time being at least, we can probably only expect to see the Islanders competing for a playoff spot yet again, rather than joining the list of teams who’ve set themselves up as true contenders. They could maybe find their way to a Metropolitan Division spot if everything goes perfectly, but competing for a wildcard spot once again seems like the more likely scenario.
So we’ll see how things play out. There are worse spots to be in, and obviously, if a team can get into the playoffs, anything can happen – though I’d argue the early exit last season is a hit to the ‘built for the playoffs’ tag that seems to surround this group from their previous Conference Final appearances.
The team really didn’t improve this offseason (or at least hasn’t yet), focusing more on retaining its current pieces.'
The Islanders were up and down, with good stretches followed by inconsistencies, and blown leads being a terribly common theme throughout the year, not to mention a disastrous penalty kill. New York showed they could pull out to a lead, but rarely did they ever put together a full, 60-minute effort. Even after Lane Lambert was fired, while the team did look better under Patrick Roy, a lot of the same issues still persisted.
It’s been three years since the Islanders won a playoff series, despite positioning themselves as a team that’s trying to compete now rather than build for the future. So despite the team reaching the playoffs in back-to-back years, they’ve still felt a little directionless, where they aren’t good enough to really contend now, but also aren’t actively building for the future to get better. As other teams continue to improve now, or look towards the future, the Islanders are treading water.
So below, we take a look at what went right this season, what went wrong, and what comes next.
Which Players Performed?
On a team basis, things were pretty up-and-down – but on an individual basis, we saw some players put together a pretty good year.
In terms of the forward group, Mathew Barzal, while playing on the wing for the majority of the season, put together arguably the best season of his career (or at least his best since his Calder-winning 2017-18 season). He reached his highest goal total, at 23, and hit 80 points for the second time in his career.
Meanwhile, Bo Horvat, who was coming off a really underwhelming initial stretch with the Islanders after being acquired in 2023, fully adjusted to his new team. Horvat cooled off closer to the end of the season, but still scored 33 goals and 68 points, and built chemistry alongside Barzal. Between the two of them, the Islanders have two-thirds of an effective top line.
Brock Nelson continued to carry the second line as well, managing around 35 goals for the third season in a row, along with almost 70 points. Nelson was quiet at times in the first round, but he still certainly did his part in the regular season.
Kyle Palmieri, streaky as ever, also ended up putting together a really good year when all was said and done. He reached 30 goals and 54 points, which was a result of scoring at a pace of about 0.5 goals per game through the back half of the year.
Between the four of Barzal, Horvat, Nelson and Palmieri, the Islanders had a group of players at the top of the lineup who could be (mostly) counted on for offense. Of course, the team could absolutely use another high-end forward or two to really build a strong top-six, but the four forwards did their parts this season overall.
Casey Cizikas also proved to be versatile, shifting to the wing and playing up the lineup near the end of the year. Cizikas has a lot more talent than the traditional fourth-line forward, even if his production didn’t see a real increase.
Hudson Fasching didn’t always dress, but I think he too was about as good as you could’ve expected when he did play. He’s used too high in the lineup at times, but still remains a great option to use on the fourth line in the future (especially with potential changes coming in that department).
I’d also say Simon Holmstrom overall took a step this year, compared to where he was in 2022-23. He needs to continue developing and carving out a role for himself within the lineup, but he still saw major improvements from the prior year. His 15 goals – a third of which were scored shorthanded – build some optimism for what kind of value he could bring in a couple years.
Then lastly, Kyle MacLean was a really good fit from the time he first suited up for the Islanders. He brings a great work ethic, shows up every game, and is able to add some depth scoring. MacLean was so good centering the fourth line that he allowed the team to shift Cizikas up the lineup, and it looks like it’s a role he could take for the foreseeable future, if given the chance.
On the blue line, Noah Dobson’s huge year was obviously the story. Dobson’s production had spiked in the two prior years, but that was nothing compared to this season, where he reached the 70-point mark. It wasn’t just his production either, with the defenseman taking on a much, much larger role, seeing his ice time increase by well over three minutes per game, nearing the 25-minute per game mark.
Alexander Romanov deserves a ton of credit as well. His plus-minus stood at plus-23, which was wildly better than anyone else on the team, and he also took on a larger role than previous years.
Meanwhile, Mike Reilly ended up fitting in really well after being picked up by the Islanders on waivers. He’s a good skater who was able to add some offense, and it seems like it’s a good bet that he’ll be back next year. Robert Bortuzzo was also a decent depth add, though with Scott Mayfield healthy to start next season (after Mayfield played through a fractured ankle this year), there won’t be a role for Bortuzzo.
In net, it was Semyon Varlamov who really impressed towards the end of the year. Varlamov was good enough to take over the starting role down the stretch, and held a .918 save percentage by the end of the season. We’ve seen how important it is to invest into goaltending, and Varlamov gave the Islanders everything they needed to get into the postseason.
Which Players Didn’t Meet Expectations?
Unfortunately, the Islanders have a lot of money tied up in middle/bottom-six forwards who aren’t providing the impact the team would’ve hoped for.
Anders Lee saw a massive drop-off in scoring, managing only 20 goals and 37 points in 81 games. While Lee remains great in battles, and was arguably one of the team’s better playoff performers, the Islanders’ captain looks to be in decline.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau also saw reduced production, with only 11 goals and 33 points. He’s still a decent third-line center overall, but this was undoubtedly his worst season since joining the team.
Meanwhile, Pierre Engvall failed to show much in the first season of his seven-year extension. He has size and speed, but often fails to do much with either, and the team is really counting on him bouncing back to justify his long-term contract.
Considering the Islanders have $15 million per year invested in the three forwards, they aren’t getting adequate value.
The identity line has also seemingly run its course. With both Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck set to become free agents, there’s a good chance we see a fourth-line overhaul. Both players seemed interested in a return for next year, but some of Lou Lamoriello’s end-of-year quotes made it seem like the organization could go in a different direction.
Oliver Wahlstrom also failed to take any sort of a step, being held out of the lineup for much of the year. Especially factoring in Wahlstrom’s post-season interview, where he seemed noncommittal about his future in New York, this looks to be the end of the road for him with the organization.
On the blue line, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, who only years ago formed one of the league’s best defense pairs, have taken a step back. It’s great that Romanov and Dobson have stepped up, but you can only imagine how strong the Islanders top-four group could be if Pelech and Pulock had both sustained their impact from those two playoff runs.
Samuel Bolduc and Sebastian Aho also both failed to really take hold of a full-time playing role, leaving the door open for Reilly to have the success he did within the defense group.
Perhaps the most surprising down year though belonged to Ilya Sorokin. Only a season removed from finishing second in Vezina voting, Sorokin posted a .908 save percentage, losing the starting job to Varlamov by year’s end. Sorokin certainly has all the tools to return to form next season, but based on his playoff appearance it seems that he’s lost some of his confidence in goal. The time off should help him, but with the team relying on their goaltending as much as they do at times, Sorokin didn’t help the Islanders’ struggles.
What’s Next?
It seems like the organization may have a false sense of their own abilities after the back-to-back Conference Final appearances in 2020 and 2021. It almost feels as though those great playoff runs have instilled a confidence that if the team can get to the playoffs, they can contend.
But that was then, and this is now. They’ve had two straight playoff appearances where it should be clear that they aren’t strong enough. It’s almost seemed like just making the playoffs is enough for the organization at times, though again, I think it’s much more of a case of management being far too bullish on their own roster, rather than expectations actually being lowered.
Unfortunately though, there’s a decent chance that major changes won’t come this offseason. We know Lou Lamoriello will be back as General Manager, and while he’s done a lot of good for the franchise in his tenure, he’s also backed himself into a bit of a corner in terms of roster construction. A good chunk of the team’s core is built around players in their late 20s and early 30s, pointing to the fact the team is in its window to contend. However, the Islanders simply don’t have the cap space to continue building around them to improve, and outside of maybe Ruslan Iskhakov, the team has no help coming in the way of NHL-ready prospects.
Coming off a fairly uneventful 2023 offseason, I think there’s a good chance the Islanders’ 2024 offseason is…. also fairly uneventful.
The team will have a decision to make on their unrestricted free agents, including Clutterbuck, Martin and Reilly among others, along with new contracts needed for Holmstrom and MacLean. They’ll also need to start putting a plan in place for what to do with 2025 UFAs Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri.
But short of moving out contracts that nobody is likely to take (Lee, Pageau, Engvall, etc.), or possible buy-outs, the Islanders just don’t have a whole lot of cap space to work with, leaving them with very limited flexibility. They hold the 18th overall pick, but unless they look to move it for help now, using the pick won’t make the team better short-term.
Again, there are worse spots to be in – the Islanders have at least been a playoff team in back-to-back years, giving themselves a chance to do something just by way of getting into the postseason. With five playoff appearances in their last six years, they’ve still been more successful than a good chunk of the league. It'll also be interesting to see what Roy can do in a full season with the team.
Unfortunately, the Islanders are in a pretty stagnant spot now, without a clear way out. Lamoriello has shown no signs of looking towards a retool, and even if he were to go that direction, a huge chunk of the team remains under long-term contract anyways. But on the flip side, he also doesn’t have a clear path to improve the roster enough that he can put the team in a position to contend.
There’s a full summer to make some moves and we’ve seen Lamoriello get creative before. But pushing the Islanders into a clear direction won't be easy given their current situation, and Islanders' management faces a huge challenge in attempting to make meaningful changes.
In terms of what comes next for coverage here: for the month of May, I'll be putting out a weekly article every Sunday, looking towards a different topic involving the team (along with any articles to go over any major news).
Check back next Sunday for an article examining the Islanders' cap situation, and what areas they may realistically look to upgrade this summer.
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