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The New York Islanders open the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs tonight, as they face the Carolina Hurricanes on the road for Game 1.
It marks the Islanders’ return to the postseason, after finishing ninth in the Eastern Conference last year. Just as it seemed like hope for the playoffs was lost once again this year though, the Islanders put together a great final third of the season and managed to just sneak into the playoffs. Despite being the seventh-place team in the conference, the Islanders come in with a good playoff track record over the last few seasons and a couple deep postseason runs under their belt.
For the Hurricanes, it’s their fifth straight postseason appearance and third straight division title. A steadily improving group, the Hurricanes just haven’t been able to get over the hump in the last few seasons, suffering premature playoff exits. Despite some key injuries, the hope for them is that this is the year.
As for how the teams match up, heading into the series:
For starters, the Hurricanes’ blue line remains one of the league’s best and as a team, Carolina allowed the fewest shots against per game this season. Jaccob Slavin leads the way as one of the top defensive defensemen in the NHL, while Brett Pesce and even Jalen Chatfield are extremely reliable as well. An incredibly well-rounded group though, Carolina’s defenders have been counted on to produce offensively too. Brent Burns, Brady Skjei and Shayne Gostisbehere alone have combined for 49 goals this season.
While New York’s defense group remains very solid, Carolina is one of a handful of teams who has a better blue line. With Alexander Romanov still out as well, the Islanders have two defensemen in Sebastian Aho and Samuel Bolduc who they really won’t want to force into too large of a role. As a result, we’ll see Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson and Scott Mayfield tasked with a heavy workload. The Islanders just don’t have as many defenders who can produce to a high level and the Hurricanes’ group is extremely well-rounded.
In net though, the Islanders have a distinct advantage. Ilya Sorokin was a key reason for the Islanders getting to the postseason and posted an excellent .924 save percentage across 62 games. We know even if the team stumbles, Sorokin is often there to help.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes do have three goalies who would all be capable of starting playoff games but none who you feel completely comfortable with. Of the Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta duo, there’s a good chance we end up seeing both goalies used. While Andersen and Raanta were excellent for Carolina last year on route to a Jennings Trophy, they weren’t able to repeat that success this year. Andersen can be wildly inconsistent, especially in the playoffs. Then while Raanta was rock solid in last year’s postseason and is getting the start for Game 1, he remains one of the most injury-prone goalies in the league. It’s a pretty drastic difference in terms of the goaltending matchup, and it’s arguably the one area that sways heavily in New York’s favour.
Perhaps the most important factor in this entire matchup though are the injuries to Carolina’s forward group. Without Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty for the playoffs, the Hurricanes are a very different team. They were already a group who’s often struggled to capitalize on chances for the last couple years and losing two of their best goal scorers is a gigantic blow. For reference, Carolina averaged the third-most shots per game this season, but only the 15th-most goals per game.
You will see that Carolina can get offense from their bottom six, but the issue remains a lack of true top forwards in their lineup right now. Aside from Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas, not a single player on the team who's currently available for the playoffs scored at a pace of even more than 45 points per 82 games this year.
On New York’s end, Mathew Barzal is set to play Game 1, and there’s a legitimate argument that the Islanders enter the series with the more capable forward group. Bo Horvat needs to provide more in the postseason than he managed following the trade, but we saw how good he looked in the limited time with Barzal in the lineup.
Special teams is another interesting factor as well. While the Islanders’ power play has been a nightmare, ranking 30th in the NHL this season, Carolina’s really hasn’t been great either. The Hurricanes have operated at 19.8 per cent on the man advantage, sitting 20th in the NHL. On the flip side, while the Islanders had the 9th-best penalty kill, the Hurricanes were top-tier, ranking second in the league. So while Carolina does have the edge in terms of special teams, it’s slight enough that you’ll probably see a fairly even battle, without a ton of power play goals exchanged.
I will say that unlike the Islanders, who can be inconsistent from game to game at times, the Hurricanes rarely have an off night. They play a high-intensity game, forcing turnovers with a threatening forecheck and they’re never going to be an easy team to beat.
However, factor in Carolina’s consistent play but inability to score, along with Ilya Sorokin in net, and we get a sense as to how some of these games may play out. I don’t think it’s a stretch to predict the Islanders could get outshot by a bit of a margin at times, but that the Hurricanes will have trouble beating Sorokin. I think we’re going to see a lot of close, low-scoring games between these teams. But of any team facing a division winner, the Islanders got the best matchup.
I think if the Islanders can put forward a consistent effort and get off to good starts, they’re going to be in a good position. Personally, I think the Islanders are the favourite in this series.
QuizMaker
OTHER ARTICLES FROM APRIL
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Islanders keep playoff fate in their own hands with big win over Lightning
Islanders’ playoff fate comes down to final two games after win over Flyers
Islanders’ playoff hopes take a huge hit with loss to Capitals
Islanders luck out with Penguins’ loss, can clinch playoff spot tonight
Islanders clinch final playoff spot with win over Canadiens
Islanders to face Hurricanes in first round of playoffs 
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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