After the New York Islanders re-signed Brock Nelson, some criticized the contract saying it was overpriced. Today, we’ll take a look at some comparable contracts to Nelson’s.
In order to look at comparable players, the comparable stats used are career goals per 82 games at the time of signing, career points per 82 games at the time of signing, goals in the season prior to signing and points in the season prior to signing.
For Nelson this is what it looks like:
Nelson: 28 years old- $6.00 x 6= 0.0723 of cap (projected $83M cap)
CAREER GOALS PER 82 : 21.2
CAREER POINTS PER 82: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: 25.0
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: 53.0
A good comparable is Artem Anisimov’s contract to establish a low point for what Nelson’s AAV should have been. Anisimov signed for $4.55M for five years starting in his 28-year-old season, which is the equivalent of about $5.17M for five years if it began this coming season.
Here are their stats compared:
Anisimov (28- $4.55 x 5)= 0.0623 of cap ($5.17 x 5 in 2019-20),
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 21.2 > Anisimov: 17.1
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 41.2 > Anisimov: 38.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 25.0 > Anisimov: 11.0
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 53.0 > Anisimov: 42.6
Nelson is ahead of Anisimov in every category by at least a bit. Anisimov’s deal is five years instead of six, so if it was a year longer, you can probably project that the AAV drops to somewhere between $4.75M to $5M per year instead of $5.17M. This is a good low point for Nelson’s AAV, while also noting that Nelson is clearly worth more based on their comparable stats.
A good comparable for a high point of the contract would be Kyle Turris. Turris was 29 for the start of his contract, a year older than Nelson and the AAV would work out to about $6.25 for 6 years if it started this year. That being said, if he's 28 the AAV is probably a bit higher, maybe around $6.5M per year, versus starting it at 29. For his contract year stats, we combined his 2016-17 and 2017-18 stats, as Turris had only played 11 games in 2017-18 before signing.
Turris (29- $6.00 x 6)= 0.0755 of cap ($6.25 x 6 in 2019-20)
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 21.2 > Turris: 20.5
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Turris: 48.2 > Nelson: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Turris: 27.6 > Nelson: 25.0
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Turris: 59.0 > Nelson: 53.0
Turris is ahead of Nelson in most categories by a solid but not significant amount. Due to Nelson being a year younger, the upper limit for comparables can be set around $6.5M on a six-year deal, though Turris outperformed Nelson.
The four best centre comparables around the range of $5M to $6.5M are Dave Bolland, Valtteri Filppula, Adam Henrique and Mikael Backlund. Here are how they compared to Nelson’s stats:
Bolland (28- $5.50 x 5)= 0.0797 of cap ($6.62 x 5 in 2019-20)
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 21.2 > Bolland: 17.3
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Bolland: 41.5 = Nelson: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Bolland: 28.5 > Nelson: 25.0
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 53.0 > Bolland: 42.8
Filppula (29- $5.00 x 5) = 0.0778 of cap ($6.45 x 5 in 2019-20)
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 21.2 > Filppula: 17.0
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Filppula: 41.7 > Nelson: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 25.0 > Filppula: 18.0
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 53.0 > Filppula: 34.0
Henrique (29- $5.83 x 5)
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Henrique: 22.7 > Nelson: 21.2
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Henrique: 46.9 > Nelson: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 25.0 > Henrique: 24.3
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 53.0 > Henrique: 50.6
Backlund (29- $5.35 x 5) = 0.0673 ($5.59 x 5 in 2019-20)
CAREER GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 21.2 > Backund: 16.9
CAREER POINTS PER 82: Backlund: 41.6 > Nelson: 41.2
CONTRACT YEAR GOALS PER 82: Nelson: 25.0 > Backlund: 14.1
CONTRACT YEAR POINTS PER 82: Nelson: 53.0 > Backlund: 48.1
Comparing Bolland and Filppula’s stats, Nelson probably edges both of them out. Bolland’s contract would be lower than $6.62M per year if it was six years, where it would likely sit around $6.25M per year instead and again, Nelson’s stats are slightly better than Bolland’s. With Filppula’s contract, it would likely be worth at least the $6.45M per year value for six years if not more, based on getting an extra year at age 28. Nelson’s stats are better than Filppula’s as well, so between the two, Nelson had comparables with equivalent AAVs on a six-year deal around $6.25M and $6.45M.
In terms of Henrique and Backlund, Nelson’s stats are slightly better than Backlund’s while measuring pretty similar to Henrique’s. Remember though, Nelson’s was also a six-year deal, with the extra year coming when he’s 28, which adds value. So Nelson’s stats warrant at least a $5.6M AAV on a six-year deal based on the Backlund deal, while Henrique’s stats are pretty comparable to Nelson’s. Henrique’s five-year deal at 29 would be the same if not higher on a six-year deal at 28, so statistically, Nelson should carry an AAV at least as high as Backlund’s but would also be fair at Henrique’s $5.83M.
So though the $6M AAV may look slightly high to some based on Nelson’s production, comparables show that overall this is a pretty reasonable contract. The lowest this contract should have been based on those comparables is probably slightly above the $5.5M mark but some comparables could actually project the contract up to $6.5M per year.
Simply using goals and points is a narrow approach and there are obviously other factors to draw in but in getting a rough estimate for the contract, it seems like Nelson's deal came in right around where it should have.
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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