You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS
The 2019 NHL Draft is just five days away, which is always a fun day for every fanbase that at least has a first round selection. Ottawa will be selecting 19th overall with Columbus’ initial pick, and the rest of the first round looks like this:
There’s usually less trade action than is anticipated every year, but there are always at least a few picks being swapped amongst teams. Some will want to move up to ensure they get a player they love, and some will move down because they don’t care about getting one specific player. Could Ottawa be in a situation where they would want to move either up or down? It’s certainly a possibility.
With no 2nd or 3rd round picks last year, Pierre Dorion made the smart move by trading down in the 1st round in order to get an additional 2nd round pick, which turned into a free Jonny Tychonick. Ottawa is in a bit of a different situation this year, as I can see them wanting to move up as well.
They currently hold seven picks this draft (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th), which is obviously the average amount, although having three picks in the top 44 is better than most teams. The Senators could have had the 4th overall pick as well and made it four in the top 44, but they will still be leaving the draft with some quality prospects nonetheless. With Ottawa not having that high end pick, it’s worth wondering whether or not Dorion would want to move some assets to acquire a true high-end prospect in the top 10 or 12.
They are loaded with picks in 2020 and 2021, as they have 12 in 2020 (13 if Matt Duchene re-signs in Columbus) with two 1st rounders, three 2nd rounders, and two 3rd rounders, and they have 8 in 2021 (9 if Erik Karlsson re-signs in San Jose) with two 2nd rounders. I would love to keep as many of those picks as possible, but the sense from many people who follow this team is that they might try to use some of those assets in order to make the team better right away or move up in the first round of the draft.
I’m generally more open to moving
down in the draft because getting an extra pick just a round or two later is usually worth it, although in some circumstances, moving up can work. Just ask the Senators how that worked out with trading up in order to take Erik Karlsson. There are a few players who are probably out of Ottawa’s reach at 19th overall, and if they are still available in the mid-teens, then I would not be totally opposed to moving up. Players such as Alex Newhook, Victor Soderstrom, Cam York, and Philip Broberg could all be fantastic picks in the middle of the first round (especially the centre Newhook). Furthermore, perhaps Dorion is looking even higher, although top-10 picks are usually way too pricey.
It takes two to tango, and a team a few spots up from the Senators might not be willing to give up the chance to take one of those aforementioned players. Ottawa might want to target a team that is looking to get more quantity this draft, just like they were doing in 2018. Of the 18 teams drafting in front of Ottawa, only two have fewer than seven picks in the draft (Edmonton and Dallas), and it’s highly unlikely that they will be able to move up all the way to 9th overall with the Oilers pick. The Stars only pick one spot ahead at 18th, so that won’t really do very much, although a trade would not cost nearly as much if they desperately wanted the next best player.
Other teams from 10-17 might be willing to make a deal with the Senators, but it might be a lot tougher because they could easily have their sights set on somebody. And when that’s the case, the asking price becomes exorbitantly high. If Ottawa wanted to move up to, say, 14th and trade with Arizona, they would probably have the give up the 19th overall, 32nd overall, and probably another piece as well. For a team that needs to be adding to their prospect pool, a jump in just five spots does not seem worth it whatsoever.
There is a small chance that Dorion looks to move the 44th overall pick and another asset in order to acquire a younger NHL forward or defenseman, and that would be a smart move as long as this player is not a placeholder.
It depends how the draft plays out, but I would be interested in seeing Ottawa move down a few spots just because it does seem like there are plenty of options available between 15-40. Furthermore, there is not much difference between the value in second round picks,
as values drop off quite hard after the first few picks anyway:
Nevertheless, Newhook is the kind of blue-chip prospect that the Senators need, so if he is somehow still there at #19, I would not want them to move down. It’s irrelevant what fans want anyway, and I can’t see Dorion moving down after he’s already accumulated a vast amount of picks over the next three drafts.
If anything, he will want to make a splash in order to get the prospect he really wants. They’ve already done it in the first two rounds with Karlsson, Logan Brown, Matt Puempel, and Gabriel Gagne, so another move up is definitely an option on the table on Friday.
Do I think a trade up or down will ultimately happen? No, probably not, because there are so many moving parts, but at least be on the lookout during the draft.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»