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The New York Islanders entered this off-season with a handful of notable pending unrestricted free agents.
They already re-signed one in Brock Nelson, while captain Anders Lee and 2018-19 Vezina finalist Robin Lehner are justifiably next up on Lou Lamoriello's priority list.
The other name of note – Jordan Eberle – looks to be the odd-man out.
Many believe Eberle to be an ideal fit with the Devils. He's close friends with their star player in need of a new deal (Taylor Hall), the team could use some help on the right side, and Eberle has averaged ~25 goals per 82 games throughout his career. It makes sense on the surface.
When you dig a little deeper, handing a long-term contract to Eberle doesn't seem like a great idea.
Simply put, the 29-year-old's best days are behind him. His play is going to start heading south. It looks like it already has.
When comparing Eberle's shot and chance generation numbers to what they were even a year or two ago, it doesn't seem to be a coincidence he just produced the fewest 5v5 points in his career (yes, even including the lockout-shortened season).
His on-ice numbers have dipped as well. He posted a +2.39 Rel CF% this past season. That's the lowest its been since 2011-12. His -3.27 Rel GF% and +.87 Rel SCF% both stand as the worst totals of his career.
It's also worth noting Eberle's 2018-19 GAR was 4.4 goals worse than his previous lowest output over the last six seasons (this stat doesn't go back any further).
While he surely has some useful years left in the tank, the Devils (or any other suitor) would clearly be investing in an already depreciating asset.
He might not be worth the money in Year 1, and he almost certainly won't be towards the end of a long-term deal.
Considering the kind of commitment it'd take to get Eberle's signature, I'd stay away. Let's hope Ray Shero is on the same page.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com.
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