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Jets must consider many options with Trouba

May 22, 2019, 9:17 PM ET [155 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I was going to write about Trouba, been thinking about him and the situation the Jets are in for awhile but I've been away and super busy with some professional stuff. So now I see everyone and their freaking dog has written about him. Next topic.

I wish.

The challenge for the Jets is that moving Trouba means other concessions have to be made unless they trade with some team that has similar assets. There seems to be some smoke around a Trouba trade to say the least but the return is probably a bit unpredictable because his trade could be one of several moves.

That being said there are probably two teams that would trade for Trouba and offer back a serviceable defense player in return, but would they be of equal value?

Where some smoke has started to come from is Philadelphia who have a considerable amount of young defenders in Provorov, Sanheim and Gostisbehre to start. When Chevy asks for either of the first two he will be redirected to the third who seems to have become out of favor with the Flyers organization. What Ghost brings is contract stability and an offense that needs to be re-ignited. He's also not a right handed player which becomes concerning.

There were 124 players in the NHL who as defence played 1000 5vs5 minutes, here's how Ghost vs Trouba looks at on-ice numbers

Trouba

CF% 50.02% 63rd
SF% 49.22% 77th
xGF% 48.87% 78th
HDCF% 48.10% 86th

Ghost

CF% 50.86% 48th
SF% 50.57 % 61st
xGF% 49.79% 70th
HDCF% 49.87% 69th

There's nothing earth shattering here at all but the one thing that favors Ghost over Trouba is his contract, something the Jets are very cautious with and the one thing that has been the hold up with Trouba for years. Ghost has 4 more years at 4.5 million while Trouba is set to make much more than that. One can go deeper into the stats but the picture that develops is similar to what the narrative is, two players who are competent and valuable but neither had a great season defensively yet offensively one had a career year while the other regressed a bit.

Trouba is a big ticket and right-handed and demand will be high for him but does his departure hurt the Jets so much if they can get a return like Ghost?

The answer of that question really depends because it's unclear what kind of hockey team the Jets are trying to build after last season, particularly the second half and the playoffs. Does Ghost fit the vision that Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has for his team?

The transition game from the back end was challenged this season and breakouts, passes and rushes became predictable and easy to defend against. Is that an area of concern for Chevy and would Ghost address that concern? Maybe.

Satus quo after a great 17-18 season was not good enough for the Jets and understanding weaknesses is going to be critical to fixing them. Trouba is not a weakness but he's a variable and if the Jets have to fix an area of their roster and Trouba is not in the plans then what? Do they use him to fix that part of the roster as part of a trade?

It's easier to try and value Trouba with a contract, figure out who could afford the contract and has the assets to pay a fair market value for him. However does that fit with Chevy's trade history?

When Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian were traded did anyone see the key pieces coming back in any form as to what they were? When Chevy traded for Frolik did he buy from a point of strength or weakness? When Andrew Ladd was moved did he look far or to where he and the player were familiar? The Stastny and Hayes deals were logical in hindsight but only the Hayes one was suspected before it happened.

Chevy has gone back to former colleagues before but he has also found surprising ideas to work with when trading and that seems to be his general tendency, if there is even one. He's not completely predictable so in the case of Trouba expecting a predictable deal might be the wrong way to look at the eventual solution.

It just seems improbable that Chevy can trade Trouba in a deal what brings back the same kind of player. Its swapping pieces and that trade partner has to also work to get Trouba a new deal as part of this negotiation. So unless some one steps up to grab him would it surprise anyone if a deal is made at the draft? Detroit, long believed to be a Trouba favored destination, holds the 6th pick and should a player they want go earlier would that trigger a deal where the Jets get Detroit's 6th and perhaps something else?

Could Chevy flip that pick and go lower in the first and add a player via that trade?

Without knowing a lick of what the Jets plan to do other than rumored interest in Trouba the final resolution to this saga seems to have just as much of a complex possibility as a simple one for a trade. Trading Trouba needs to help change this year's team into a team that moves towards being better. It simply might take more than one move to do that when it comes to changing the team and filling the void left by Trouba.

That's the point that I think has to be remembered when talking about Trouba- it's unlikely that moving his deal alone changes the trajectory of the Jets as he simply is not going to bring a return of similar player. Chevy has a lot of balls in the air and Trouba might be one that splits into smaller parts or bounces around a bit before it's pulled out of the juggling act. Yes some call this the summer of Chevy but perhaps getting through it is a success but the contract status of Trouba will be the most important of all as the ramifications could be huge.
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