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Concern and optimism for Blues fans as they take on the Stars

April 25, 2019, 2:31 PM ET [29 Comments]
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT


Blues fans had to enjoy watching 1st two periods in their series clinching game 6 against the Jets. It was perhaps the Blues best 40 minutes of hockey of the entire season. The 3rd period made it a bit closer than desired but you often give up some goals when you go into the prevent style of play and the Blues were able to weather the storm and close the series out. The importance of this cannot be understated, just ask Vegas.

Jets coach Paul Maurice had some wonderful quotes both post game and during locker-room cleanout day. There is a lot of good stuff in these clips.





But enough about ancient history as the quest for the Cup continues tonight when the Blues host the Dallas Stars. It shouldn’t surprise anyone familiar with the Central division that any series from which a Central division team could emerge, a Central Division team did emerge. The Central got the maximum number of teams in and defeated the one non-Central opponent. Some people implied it was a down year for the Central by pointing to point totals but I firmly believe the lower points was only strength of schedule issue, or a lack of strength of schedule for the other divisions.

The Stars come in having dispatched of the Central Division champion Nashville Predators in six games. Of course, some might argue the Blues may be a better representation of the current best the Central has to offer given their status as the best team in the division in 2019 and the fact that they almost won the division even with their horrific start to the season.

The Stars won their series on the strength of Ben Bishop’s goaltending and of their special teams. The comparisons below should cause some concern and some optimism. Let’s look at a few in detail.

Scoring
While the Blues made a big deal about having 13 players with 10 or more goals, the Stars barely had more than half as many, 7. Both teams had three players with 20 or more goals. In looking on defense, both teams had three defensemen with 10 or more goals.

The Stars had the 4th worst shooting percentage in the league at 8.3%, compared to the Blues middle of the road 9.4%. They averaged a 3rd worst goals per game of 2.55 during the regular season. The Blues were 15th at 2.98.

In the playoffs, the Stars are generating 33 shots per game to the Blues 31 which has translated to a slight goals for advantage, 3.00 to 2.67. The Stars have converted on 18% of their power plays while the Blues have converted on 26%. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin only combined for 3 goals in their 6 1st round playoff games. The third meeting saw the Blues outshoot the Stars 45 to 25 only to lose 5-2. The last meeting the Blues outshoot the Stars 30-21 but lost 4-1.

The Stars picked up Mats Zuccarello late in the year. Zuccarello has 34 points in 66 career playoff games and only 7 points in 11 games against the Blues.

Will the Blues extra depth create line matchup issues and be key to scoring more? Will the Stars top line continue to be too hard for the Blues to contain? I think the majority would give the Blues the edge here though it is slight in my opinion.

History against each other
Stars are 3-1 this year but two of their victories came when the Blues were in the 2nd game of back to backs, both after traveling back from the east coast while the Stars had an off day before every game.

In the 1st game of the year, the Blues controlled play, outshooting the Stars 27 to 17 while losing 3-1. They won the next meeting 3-1 while controlling play again, outshooting the Stars 28 to 22.

Individually, if you look at career statistics against each other, the Stars have some very favorable players. Jamie Benn has 39 points in 39 games and Tyler Seguin has 25 points in 29 games while John Klingberg has 16 points in 20 games. When you look at just this season, it gets worse as Klingberg has 7 points in 4 games, Seguin has 6 points in 4 games and Benn has 5 goals in 4 games.

Vladimir Tarasenko has enjoyed success against the Stars with 3 goals in 4 games this season and 23 points in 27 games overall. Oskar Sundqvist has 3 points in 4 games this year whilel Tyler Bozak has 10 points in 13 games overall and Alex Pietrangelo has 28 points in 38 games.

Colton Parayko and Ryan O’Reilly have struggled against the Stars with Parayko only having 5 points in 18 games and O’Reilly having 16 points in 34 games.

How long can the Stars allow the Blues to control play before the Blues scoring regresses to more normal, higher levels? Can the Blues shutdown the Stars 3 key forwards? I see this as the likely key to the series.

Post All-star performance
The Blues and Stars were tied with a NHL’ Best 2.18 goals against average after the all-star game. This was in large part due to the Stars NHL best and Blues 6th best save percentage and 3rd best penalty kill, while the Jets were in the middle of the pack, 14th best, on the penalty kill.

The Blues were in the middle of the pack in goals per game after the all-star break at 3.24 while the Stars were 7th worst at 2.52. Winnipeg shot with the 7th least efficiency and was 10th best on the power play while the Blues were 8th in shooting percentage and 4th best on the power play.

Klingberg, Seguin, Benn and Alexander Radulov each all averaged a point a game in the 1st round. Only Pietrangelo average a point a game for the Blues in round one.

Goaltending
Former Blue Ben Bishop is 6-6-1 with a 2.12 goals against average and a 92.6% save percentage in his career against the Blues. Like many of the skaters, Bishop has been even better, going 2-1 with a 1.69 goals against average and a 94.1% save percentage.

Jordan Binnington is an x-factor in this series as he struggled against the Stars this year. The Stars were the only team he faced three times and he had a low 87.9% save percentage and a 2.76 goals against average. Allen was worse this year against the Stars, posting an 82.4% in his only game against the Stars.

Do the Stars have the book on Binnington? Remember, his numbers are poor after posting a 21 save, 95.5% game the 1st time against the Stars. The last two games were 83.3% and 85% save percentage results. I think this is a valid concern even if it is a very small sample size.

Will Binnington continue his Winnington ways in the playoffs or will the Stars continue to bury him like the two previous games? If the team is playing poorly or if Binnington falters a bit, as the team did in game 3 against the Jets, will Berube make the tough choice to make a goalie switch? If so, how will Binnington respond? Blues fans hope that is only a theoretical discussion but as the 1st round showed, Berube cannot be afraid of making adjustments.

Lineup notes
In the 1st round, Miro Heiskanen led the Stars with 26:32 average ice time, barely ahead of Esa Lindell at 26:17 and comfortably ahead of Klingberg at 23:48. The three defensemen took around 58% of the potential ice time. Compare that to Pietrangelo who had 24:58, Parayko with 22:10 and Bouwmeester who had 21:32 for about 54% of the potential ice time. Will fatigue for the rear guards in Dallas be an issue if there are a lot of overtime games or the series goes long?

Don’t expect the Blues lineup to change. It should start like this:
Perron-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Sundqvist
Maroon-Bozak-Thomas
Fabbri-Barbashev-Steen
Gunnarsson-Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester-Parayko
Dunn-Edmundson
Binngton

Of course, my heart wants to say the Blues in six but I think this series could be a coin flip and expect it to go six or seven games. If Jamie Benn, doesn’t score more than he did in the 1st round (1 goal), you have to like the Blues chances. If Ben Bishop continues to play like he did in the last two 1st round games, the Blues could be in big trouble. If Bishop’s save percentage regresses to normal NHL levels, the Stars will likely be in big trouble.

I expect he Blues power play to be better than Nashville’s (0% so it couldn’t be worse) and hope that their goaltending and penalty killing will be at least as good. If so, I think the Blues will prevail.

NHL Champions for Charity
Given that the Predators pulled out the division title, all be it not without some controversial officiating in the last couple of games, Best Buddies Tennessee https://www.bestbuddies.org/tennessee/ is the beneficiary. Best Buddies Tennessee is dedicated to establishing a volunteer movement that creates opportunities for one-to-one friendships, integrated employment, leadership development and inclusive living opportunities for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. As a side note, I recently got to experience a Best Buddies even in the St. Louis area that was led by the Eureka high school football team. It was a lot of fun and brought a lot of joy to those involved.

It’s a great day for hockey.
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