Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Bruins in 7.
I really like the Blue Jackets' roster, and am happy the franchise has finally tasted some playoff success, but their series against the Lightning wasn't nearly as one-sided as the sweep would suggest. The Blue Jackets only controlled ~45% of the attempts and expected goals at 5v5. It's not like they skated the Lightning into the ground. A lot of things went their way.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, one of the league's best goaltenders, looked nothing like his usual self from the word go. Victor Hedman, a Norris Trophy finalist, missed a pair of games due to injury and was not fully healthy in the two he did play. Nikita Kucherov, a Hart Trophy finalist, let his temper get the best of him and got himself suspended. Though the Blue Jackets deserve credit for taking advantage of all that, we'd probably still expect a much different outcome if they could play again.
The Bruins posted better 5v5 numbers in the regular season (pre and post-deadline), they posted better 5v5 numbers in the 1st round, and I expect them to get the better of the Jackets in that game state now. That's big considering how much of every game is played at 5v5, especially in the playoffs when refs tend to put their whistles away.
Extra rest could help the Blue Jackets, and Sergei Bobrovsky is capable of stealing a series, but I think the Bruins will be able to take care of business.
New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6.
Carolina is a dominant 5v5 team. Dominant. During the regular season, they finished 1st or 2nd in CF%, SCF%, and xGF%.
That success continued in the opening round with the Hurricanes controlling 59% of the attempts and 58% of the expected goals at 5v5 against the defending Stanley Cup champs. This despite playing some games without two top-6 caliber forwards in Micheal Ferland and Andrei Svechnikov.
Time and time again they've proven they're legitimately as good as any team in terms of tilting the ice and generating quantity and quality shots offensively. Converting is sometimes a different story, but they have been much better in that regard since Nino Niederreiter joined the mix.
In any case, I expect they'll be able to control play territorially against the Islanders. I also don't expect their power play to be as much of an issue considering, as bad as it looked at times, they still scored 11 more PP goals (44-33) in almost the exact same amount of time on the man advantage.
The Islanders are more structured in-zone, and Robin Lehner has shown the ability to steal games, so I do think the Isles will put up a good fight. That said, I like the Hurricanes' story-book run to continue.
Recent Posts
Devils Q&A: On Hall, potential off-season targets, and more
Jack Hughes changes everything
Don't sleep on Jesper Boqvist
The Devils should target Jason Zucker
Which pending free agents should/will the Devils re-sign?
Devils interested in Jakob Lilja
The Kaapo Kakko blog™
The Jack Hughes blog™
Setting the table for the Devils' 2019 off-season
Zacha's recent output appears to be smoke and mirros
New Jersey Devils Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»