Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five observations from Game 4 of Calgary vs Colorado:
1. Same story, different day
The score indicates a close game with nothing really separating the two. That's not reality – at least it shouldn't have been. Once again, the Avalanche absolutely steamrolled the Flames at 5v5. It started early – they out-chanced the Flames 8-1 in the opening frame – and they were able to sustain their territorial edge throughout. It was nearly identical to what we saw in Game 3.
The Avalanche were sharp with their puck movement, seemingly came out on top of every key battle in dangerous areas at both ends of the ice, and once again were flying through the neutral zone and able to take advantage of the Flames' poor gap control. There were a *ton* of lengthy, dangerous shifts in Calgary's zone, and it felt like an achievement if the Flames could muster up more than a one-and-done perimeter shot at the other end. It was almost shocking to watch.
Add it all up and it's easy to see why the Avs controlled 59.35% of the attempts (73-50), 63.33% of the scoring chances (38-22), and 65.67% of the expected goals (3.69-1.93) in more than 58 minutes of 5v5 hockey.
2. Mike Smith was rock solid
He continues to play as well as you could possibly dream of. No, not for the standards of someone who posted a sub .900 save percentage over better than 40 regular season games. For anyone. If the Flames had John Gibson, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, Carey Price, or any other marquee goaltender, and they put forth these kind of performances, you'd still think they were playing over their heads. It's just not realistic to expect this level of play from anyone given the workload. Smith is coming up with big save after big save after big save and doing everything he possibly can to keep the Flames in this series. And they're throwing it away. I honestly feel bad for the guy. He couldn't possibly play any better and yet he finds himself down 3-1 in a series. There's no longer any margin whatsoever for anything less than a perfect performance, which is scary for a 37-year-old getting peppered with high-danger chances every single night.
3. The top line was invisible
The Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm line is nowhere to be found right now. They're getting all the ice time they can handle – they finished 1, 2, and 3 among Flames forwards – and doing nothing with it (at 5v5, anyway). In nearly 14 minutes together as a trio, the Flames controlled 31.03% of the attempts and 27.34% of the expected goals. This line was one of the league's best for the majority of the season, and they are a complete non-factor almost every single night against the NHL's No. 17 seed during the regular season. Forget about all the other issues the team has. If the top line doesn't step up, and fast, the Flames are going down in fewer than seven games.
4. The kids are alright
On a positive note, I really liked what I saw from the Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson pairing. They were the only players able to consistently tilt the ice in Calgary's favor (68 CF%, 61 xGF) and they looked legitimately good. Valimaki made a nice play to help create the Derek Ryan goal and Rasmus Andersson was involved in a *ton* of the offense, easily leading the defense in shot contributions. I think they earned another chance in Game 5.
5. Another poor showing
Can we not with the 3rd line? Goodness me. Each member posted a sub 33 xGF%, they combined for just one scoring chance and created almost no shots at 5v5. Not even trash ones from a distance.
To say they were awful would probably be an understatement. I think it was a three-man effort last night but Sam Bennett *has* put together some quality games, and Mark Jankowski isn't coming out as the center. That leaves *deadpans to James Neal* you know who as the odd man out. I will sacrifice a delicious Red Bull to get Austin Czarnik in the lineup for just one game. The results he garnered on the 3rd line were so, so, so much better and, even if they weren't, do we really think swapping Neal for Czarnik is going to make things any worse? The bar is an inch off the ground here.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com or tracked manually
Recent posts:
Five observations from a blowout loss in G3
Western Conference playoff picks
Predicting 1st round upsets
Five keys to Flames vs Avalanche
Flames sign Artyom Zagidulin
Flames among those targeting Joakim Nygard
On the Jason Zucker trade that almost was
Predicting the Pacific Division standings