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Avalanche 6, Flames 2: MacKinnon continues to steal the show

April 16, 2019, 10:48 AM ET [48 Comments]
Todd Cordell
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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Five observations from Game 3 of Calgary vs Colorado:

1. 5v5 struggles continued

Remember when the Flames were steamrolled at 5v5 in Game 2? Well, it happened again. The Avalanche started like they were shot out of a cannon and were able to dictate the pace and dominate territorially. They were winning tons of battles, absolutely flying through the neutral zone (looking at you, Nathan MacKinnon), and executing with a level of crispness that was so far beyond where the Flames were at, particularly over the first 40 minutes.

During that time, the Avs won the 5v5 chance battle 23-12 (8-2 in terms of high-danger) and out-scored the Flames by a pair. With all the quality looks they generated, it could have been much worse.

The only period the Flames played fairly even was the 3rd and, by that point, the end result was not remotely in question. Each side was more concerned with settling the score than trying to score.

If the Flames don't figure it out, and fast, one of the best seasons in franchise history will be remembered for all the wrong reasons.

2. Quantity there, quality not for top line

Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm played a little better in Game 3. They were the team's best line in terms of possession and, led by Gaudreau, they finally managed to create a decent chunk of shots.



Unfortunately, not many of them had substance. Beyond one goal-mouth scramble, they didn't really threaten. A lot of their shots came from the outside and they just didn't feel dangerous.

It was a step in the right direction but, again, the Flames need a lot more than that from their big-ticket players if they're going to slip by the Avalanche.

3. Mike Smith gets a pass

Goaltending was reason No. 534 why the Flames lost, which feels strange to say given Smith allowed six goals and posted a .893 save percentage. Really, though, he had absolutely no help from ~five minutes in until the final whistle. The Flames conceded 56 shots on goal and 45 scoring chances (20 high-danger). In a playoff game. Against an 8-seed. No, not in an overtime game that went 4.5 periods. In just 60 minutes. Yes, the same Flames that dominated at 5v5 all year long, and was elite at suppressing shots/chances, gave up 56 shots and 45 chances. It doesn't matter which goaltender starts if the Flames defend like that.

4. Nathan MacKinnon looks unstoppable

The Flames have a lot of problems. Their biggest, unquestionably, is stopping MacKinnon. Or at least slowing him down. In a hair over 20 minutes of ice, MacKinnon contributed two goals, an assist, nine shot attempts, six scoring chances, and what felt like 300 controlled zone entries. He did whatever he wanted shift after shift after shift, and that's been the case for the majority of the series. The Flames need to do a better job of slowing him up through the neutral zone and forcing him to defer to teammates more. Right now, he's just blowing by defenders and getting shots off any time he wants to.

5. Time for change

One way the Flames can help mitigate the 5v5 edge the Avalanche seemingly have right now is to, well, dress their optimal lineup. Said lineup features Austin Czarnik. Spare me all the nonsense about James Neal's playoff experience and such. The guy has a 33.94 on-ice expected goals for% and one high-danger chance through three games. Beyond a couple of loud hits, he really isn't bringing anything to the table.

Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have played their best hockey with Czarnik. In ~100 minutes as a trio, they controlled 62% of the attempts and 63% of the goals while caving in opposing team's depth players on a nightly basis. Give them a chance to do so now. It's clear what the Flames are doing isn't working.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com or tracked manually

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