Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five observations from Game 1 of Calgary vs Colorado:
1. 3M was exceptional
I thought Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik were the best trio on the ice last night. It wasn't particularly close.
Tasked with slowing down Nathan MacKinnon at 5v5, they did a stand-up job allowing the Avs to muster up just .45 expected goals (and zero actual goals) in more than 14 minutes head-to-head. That's less than 2 xG per 60 minutes, which the Flames would certainly be thrilled with against that kind of competition.
3M wasn't just great defensively. They threatened more offensively than anyone, combining for eight of 20 5v5 chances and 10 of 25 overall. The 5v5 shot contribution numbers for 3M – well, more so Backlund and Tkachuk – were through the roof as well.
Though their production came in other game states, they were certainly deserving of it.
2. Mike Smith was awesome
I didn't agree with the decision to start Smith in Game 1. It's not that I have anything against him, he simply garnered much lesser results than David Rittich over the course of the season (I know the gap closed down the stretch). Rittich clearly had the better year, thus, I thought he deserved to play. With that said, I have to tip my hat to Smith for making the most of the opportunity at hand. He was awesome. The Avalanche played the Flames very evenly, which I was a little surprised by, but it didn't matter because Smith was perfect. His night was far from a walk in the pack. He was tested with a handful of Grade As, and he was equal to the task. Credit where it's due. Smith never gave the Avalanche any life. Now how will he follow that performance up?
3. Flames dominated on special teams
I speculated special teams would be ultra important in my series preview. They always are, but especially so when you have a pair of teams who are elite at drawing penalties, and undisciplined in terms of taking them.
The two sides combined for nine minors last night. The Flames killed off the four they took, and converted twice on the man advantage.
It didn't shine through as much as I expected last night, however, the season data – both H2H and otherwise – suggests the Flames have a big edge at 5v5. If they're going to win the special teams battle, too, the Avalanche don't have much of a shot.
4. Rasmus Andersson was rock solid
He didn't pick up a primary contribution on any of the 13 attempts he was on the ice for at 5v5. Still, I thought he played a very strong game. He made smart decisions with the puck, continually kept plays alive with pinches and strong plays at Colorado's blueline, and he didn't spend much time chasing play in the defensive zone. A big reason for that was zone entry defense. His gaps were good, and on one occasion he picked a puck out of the air with his stick and quickly moved it up for the team to generate a good shot in transition.
He was my Western Conference breakout pick – someone that will open eyes in the playoffs – and last night was a good example of why. He is so steady already, and he's only going to get better.
5. The top line wasn't overly dangerous
Their on-ice shot numbers weren't bad. In fact, they were quite good. They just didn't generate much in terms of quality. Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau, and Sean Monahan combined for just one high-danger chance at 5v5, and the .24 expected goals they were out for at 5v5 were lower than every member of the team besides James Neal and Mark Jankowski. It didn't matter last night, and maybe it won't for the entirety of the series, but the top line needs to be a lot more dangerous for the Flames to get to where they want to go.
Data dump
The defense shot contribution numbers weren't that relevant in any of my notes above so I'm going to post them here for those interested. Mark Giordano led the way with six but there were no real stand-out performances.
Recent posts:
Western Conference playoff picks
Predicting 1st round upsets
Five keys to Flames vs Avalanche
Flames sign Artyom Zagidulin
Flames among those targeting Joakim Nygard
On the Jason Zucker trade that almost was
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»