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2019 Western Conference Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions

April 10, 2019, 3:20 PM ET [548 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I have grouped the first-round match-ups by the divisional brackets, making it easier to show the conference semi-finals. The previews are at a high-level followed by a series prediction. My 2019 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions blog was posted on Monday. In addition, I have projected out the Conference Semi-finals, Finals and Stanley Cup Finals. That will hopefully get posted later in the week, either tomorrow or Friday.

WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS

Calgary vs. Colorado

The Flames rode the arrivals of Bill Peters, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin along with rise in production from Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk into leading the Western Conference in points. Calgary was on no one’s radar to win the Pacific coming into the season, yet nearly all their parts meshed seamlessly. Colorado made the playoffs last season and rode the Rocky Mountain Trio, especially earlier in the year, to a post-season berth. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, who missed the last eight games of the regular season with an upper-body injury but is in the lineup for Game 1, and Gabriel Landeskog all had solid years, though coach Jared Bednar did split the trio up late in the year to try and diversify the Colorado attack.

Gaudreau (99 points), Monahan (82), Lindholm (78) and Tkachuk (77) all had career-best campaigns. Those four drive the Calgary attack, though Mikael Backlund chipped in nicely with 21 goals and 26 assists. James Neal was a waste of a free agent signing, yet Calgary was able to make up for his lack of production. On defense, Mark Giordano had a Norris Trophy-like campaign out of nowhere with 17 goals and 57 assists. T.J. Brodie and Hanifin were solid enough support players, though each had far from the impact of Giordano. Between the pipes, Mike Smith opened the season as the starter, but faltered and ceded the role to David Rittich, who finished the season 27-9-5 with a 2.61 GAA and a .911 save percentage. Smith ended the year 23-16-2 with a 2.73 GAA and.898 save percentage, though he did play well the final six weeks of the season and could open the playoffs as the starter.

Once you get past the Rocky Mountain Trio, the next most productive members of the Avalanche were Carl Soderberg, with 23 goals and 26 assists, and Alexander Kerfoot, who added 15 goals and 27 assists in his sophomore campaign. One name to keep an eye on in the playoffs is Tyson Jost, as he closed the season fairly strong. On defense, it’s all about Tyson Barrie, who posted 14 goals and 45 assists. Samuel Girard is a nice complimentary piece and his future is bright while Erik Johnson had a few weeks of relevance before fading. Late word is that Cale Makar, Colorado’s top prospect might be in the lineup during the series, potentially by game 3. In net, Semyon Varlamov opened the year as the starter but was replaced late by Philipp Grubauer, who closed out the season by going 7-0-2 in his last nine starts to help Colorado earn a playoff berth. Grubauer looks to be the favorite to open the playoffs as the starter.

Series Notes
Calgary was third in the league in goals and ninth in goals against, while the Avalanche was 10th and 16th. The Flames were 18th in PP success and 21st on the PK at 79.7%, while the Avalanche were seventh and 25th, finishing with a 22.0% success rate on the man-advantage. Calgary notched 50 wins for the season time in their history while notching a plus-54 goal differential in the third period, best in the league. Calgary won the season series 3-0 against Colorado.

Pick
Flames in 5. Calgary has better overall talent than Colorado and look for Giordano to be on the ice as much as possible against the Rocky Mountain Trio, if Bednar keeps that group together. Grubauer could steal a game of two while Rittich might falter under the weight of starting and Smith is an unreliable entity at this point. Despite this, Calgary is the choice to advance fairly easily.

San Jose vs. Las Vegas

The Sharks and Golden Knights meet for the second straight season in the playoffs. Last year, Vegas defeated San Jose in six games in the second round. San Jose experienced a bit of the changing of the guard, as Tomas Hertl led the forwards in scoring with 35 goals and 39 assists followed by Logan Couture and Timo Meier. Brett Burns had another brilliant campaign with 16 goals and 67 assists. Vegas may have suffered from a hangover from their amazing debut season, but found their form as the year wore on. Balanced scoring was a hallmark of the Knights this season, as seven players topped 40 points. Marc-Andre Fleury won 35 games, helping carry Vegas to a second straight playoff berth.

San Jose also received solid production from many other regulars. Joe Pavelski missed seven games, yet scored 60+ points again while Kevin Labanc notched 17 goals and 39 assists, as he continued his rise. Evander Kane potted 30 goals in his first full season out West. Joe Thornton turned back the clock with 15 goals and 36 assists as the team’s third line center. For the Sharks, the health of Erik Karlsson may determine how far they go. After finally rounding into form, a groin injury sidelined EK65 for 17 straight games until he played in the final regular season game. He missed 27 of 33 games from January 19 with San Jose going 2-8-1 in their last 11 games without the Swedish blueliner leading to their regular-season finale. If healthy, one of Burns and Karlsson could be on the ice for nearly the entire game, driving possession and carrying play from the blue line. That would help Martin Jones, who despite 36 wins posted a 2.94 GAA and.896 save percentage in 62 games.

Vegas saw a decline in output across the board. Paul Stastny, brought in a big-money free agent, missed 32 games with an injury, but potted 42 points in 50 games. Max Pacioretty only had 22 goals in 66 games, yet could be a difference maker in the postseason. Alex Tuch took a step forward with 20 goals and 32 assists while Jonathan Marchessault dropped from 75 to 59 points and William Karlsson declined from 75 to 56 points, yet each closed the season strong. Mark Stone came over at the trade deadline, notching five goals and six assists in 18 games, giving Vegas another weapon up front. Last season, the blue line was a surprising strength. This year, other than Shea Theodore, the defense was nowhere near as good. Fleury covered up some of the warts from the blue line.

Series Notes
San Jose finished second in goals, 21st in goals-against, sixth in PP success at 23.6% and 15th in PK success in 80.8%. Vegas finished 13th in the league in goals for, down from fifth a year ago, and 10th in goals against. They were 25th in PP success at 16.8%, down from 11th a year ago, and 14th on the PK at 80.9%.

Pick
Vegas in 6. If Karlsson is truly healthy, this prediction could flip. Jones has shown he can take a team to the Stanley Cup Finals but Fleury has a Cup win and be on Cup champions but also carried Vegas to the Finals last season. The addition of Stone helps push Las Vegas over the top.

Nashville vs. Dallas

Nashville went from the eighth spot in the Western Conference in 2016-17 to the Cup finals. Last season, the Predators fell to the Jets in Game 7 of the second round, alternating wins and losses. Nashville clinched the Central Division on the last day of the season while Dallas made the playoffs during the final week of the year. Balanced scoring, an elite blue line and excellent goaltending allowed Nashville to hold off St. Louis and Winnipeg to win the Central Division. The same can be said of Dallas, especially when Ben Bishop is healthy.

Ryan Johansen broke the 60-point barrier again after falling short last year for the first time in five seasons. Filip Forsberg, despite missing 18 games with injuries, picked up the slack, notching 28 goals and 22 assists, down from his production of a year ago. Viktor Arvidsson fell from 61 to 48 points, but missed 24 games and still potted 34 goals. Craig Smith and Mikael Granlund, imported for Kevin Fiala at the trade deadline, are to provide secondary scoring. Maybe Kyle Turris, a healthy scratch several times during the year, is a surprise producer in the post-season. Where Nashville shines is on the blue line. Roman Josi upped his output slightly, potting 15 goals along with 41 assists, while Mattias Ekholm added eight and 36 from the back line. Add in P.K. Subban, who missed 19 games and fell off from 59 to 31 points, and Ryan Ellis, with seven goals and 34 points, and you have a stalwart top-four defense. Pekka Rinne finishes the regular season with a 30-19-4 record, 2.42 GAA and .918 save percentage in 56 games, numbers similar to 2016-17 when he carried the Predators to the Cup Finals, though down from his output a year ago. He is more than ably backed out by Juuse Saros.

Owner Jim Lites called out Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in December. Since that public flogging, Seguin raised his game, finishing the season with 33 goals and 47 assists, but Benn never rebounded, as his 52 points was lowest total since the 2010-11 campaign. Alexander Radulov more than made up the slack from Benn’s regression, potting 29 goals and 43 assists. Once you get past those three, as well as Mats Zuccarello, who meshed well in his very brief time with the Stars despite missing the majority of time south with a broken arm, Dallas’ forwards leave a lot to be desired. Where the Stars are vastly improved this season is on defense. John Klingberg is a scoring machine, but he was joined on the blue line by rookie Miro Heiskanen with 12 goals and 21 assists, and Esa Lindell, whose game took a step forward. Ben Bishop was limited to 46 games but went 27-15-2 with a 1.98 GAA and .934 save percentage. Anton Khudobin was one of the better back up netminders in the league, going 16-17-2 with a 2.57 GAA and .923 save percentage.

Series Notes
Nashville was 19th in the league in goals, falling from seventh last year, and fourth in goals against, while Dallas was 29th in goals and second in goals against. The Predators were last in PP success, down from 14th last year, and 26th on the PK, down from sixth and 81.9% last season while the Stars were 11th at 21.0 on the PP and fifth in PK, finishing with an 82.8% success rate shorthanded.

Pick
Predators in 6. Nashville’s blue line and top talent up front will make life tough for Dallas. Ben Bishop and the power play keeps the Stars in every game but it’s not enough to get past the Predators.

Winnipeg vs. St. Louis
The Jets made a run last year to the Western Conference Finals before falling to the Golden Knights due to the brilliant play of Marc-Andre Fleury. This season, they finished one point shy of Nashville for the Central Division crown. St. Louis looked left for dead before Jordan Binnington resurrected their season. He went 24-5-1 with five shutouts, a .930 save percentage and 1.83 goals-against average to carry the Blues to one point shy of the Central Division title.

Blake Wheeler was brilliant again, pacing Winnipeg with 91 points, including 71 assists, while Mark Scheifele added 38 goals and 46 assists. Kyle Connor took a step forward with 34 goals and 32 assists but Patrik Laine had a rough campaign, dropping from 44 to 30 goals with long stretches of no production. Kevin Hayes was imported at the deadline, and while he did add five goals and seven assists in 20 games, much of that came in a handful of contests. Bryan Little is now the third line center and Nikolaj Ehlers was on pace for possibly a 30-goal campaign before missing 21 games with an injury. On defense, Jacob Trouba notched a career-best 50 points, making up for the absence of Dustin Byfuglien, who missed 40 games with injuries, including from February 16 to March 30. Josh Morrissey, out since February 24 with an upper body injury, is expected back for the playoffs. His return will bolster the Winnipeg blueline. Connor Hellebuyck, who led the league in saves and shot attempts against this season, saw his production fall from his brilliant 2017-18 campaign, yet still notched 34 wins, albeit with a half-a-goal-per-game rise in his goals-against average from a year ago.

St. Louis rise also occurred when Brayden Schenn-Ryan O’Reilly-Vladimir Tarasenko were joined together. That trio spurred the Blues’ offense, which was aided by David Perron, who fell from 66 points in Vegas last season to 46 in St. Louis, but tallied 11 points the final 12 games of the season. Jaden Schwartz fell from 59 to 36 points while Alex Steen’s production dropped for the fourth straight season. Bolstering the offense was rookie Robert Thomas, who potted 33 points in 70 games, along with Oscar Sundqvist and Tyler Bozak. Alex Pietrangelo was a stalwart from the blueline, joined by Vince Dunn. Jay Bouwmeester eats up minutes, as does Colton Parayko. Binnington relieved an ineffective Jake Allen to carry the Blues to the playoffs, though Allen rebounded late in the season. .

Series Notes
Winnipeg finished seventh in the league is scoring, down from second last year, partially due to Laine’s struggles, 17th in goals-against, down from fifth last season, fourth on the PP and 23rd in PK success at 79.1%, down from ninth a year ago. St. Louis finished 10th in the league at 21.1 percent on the man advantage and ninth on the PK at 81.5%. In addition, they were 15th in goals per game and fifth in goals-against at 2.20 allowed per game.

Pick
Blues in 7. On paper, the Jets should win this series due to their depth up front. But the Blues’ top-four on D coupled with Binnington’s magic ride continuing prove to be just enough Helly is brilliant but Tarasenko gets the game-winner in overtime in game 7.

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