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Here are my predictions for the Western Conference matchups in the opening round of the 2019 playoffs:
Series: Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Flames in six.
The Flames were one of the better 5v5 teams all season long and somehow they're trending upwards in that regard. They controlled 55.24% of the shot attempts and 58.05% of the expected goals over the last 10 despite resting key pieces while playing for nothing in some of those games. If they stay out of the box, they should be able to take care of business quickly.
That's a big if, though. The Flames take plenty of penalties, and no team spent more time on the man advantage than the Avalanche. They're excellent at drawing calls. If they get more opportunities to go to work, that'll help make up for the 5v5 edge the Flames figure to have.
The Avs also have the advantage between the pipes. Philipp Grubauer posted a .917 save percentage on the year and enters the playoffs on a high note, having recorded a .955 SV% over his last 16. Mike Smith finished the season with a sub .900 SV% while appearing in more than 40 games. Though his play improved a fair bit of late (he posted a .916 SV% over his final 15 appearances), Grubauer was still better.
I think the Flames have enough talent to overcome those potential problem spots, but I still expect a competitive series.
Series: Nashville Predators vs Dallas Stars
Prediction: Stars in seven.
I'm sure I'll take some heat for this one but I think the Predators are paper tigers. All year long their underlying numbers failed to match what you'd expect from a team expected to contend. They've had issues scoring, too, and their pre-deadline moves didn't move the needle much. Brian Boyle put up five points in 26 games, Mikael Granlund managed five in 16, and Wayne Simmonds recorded three in 17 games – he finds himself on the 4th line as a result.
Dallas isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut but Nashville's discipline issues could help spot them some needed goals. While the Predators' defensive personnel is far better on paper, the Stars actually garnered better 5v5 results in terms of limiting chances, goals, and expected goals.
I think this series will be very close either way. I'll go with the big underdogs who don't seem to be getting any respect.
Series: San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights
Prediction: Golden Knights in seven.
This is going to be a fantastic series – perhaps the best of the 1st round. Both teams play very fast, are elite at generating shots and chances, and elite at suppressing them. The difference, to me, is between the pipes. Marc-Andre Fleury is an above average goaltender, and Martin Jones might be the worst starter in the league (there's a reason the Sharks finished last in team save percentage). I think that will prove costly for them.
Series: Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Jets in seven.
All the numbers suggest I should go with the Blues. I just can't bring myself to do it. I know the Jets underwhelmed while limping to the finish line but I think lengthy absences of Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey played a big part in their struggles. Those are perhaps the team's two best defenders at driving play up ice, and there's no replacing them. Both should be good to go for this series, which is huge. I think the Jets have more high-end forwards – if Patrik Laine wakes up, anyway – and I'll still take Connor Hellebuyck over Jordan Binnington, as well as the latter has played. Home ice is a nice little bonus as well.
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