There is a lot of playoff hype in Winnipeg but it's mostly coming from those who stand to make a profit from the post season. The Whiteout street party the videos from the Jets, the businesses advertising and so on. Theres nothing wrong with that but other than some of the more passionate fans the fanbase at large of the Winnipeg Jets enters this post season with a sense of cautiousness.

That's probably a fair position to take if you want a pragmatic look at the post season for the Jets. However, fans should also not be afraid of optimism as having home ice is important as what team doesn't want that?

For the Jets the task becomes very clear just as it does every other team in the post season- win 2 out every 3 games. Something they only did seven times in 43 games since January 1st. This though is a new season and a different one as if everything goes right, the Jets only play four different opponents but the difficulty level gets harder, at least in theory.

The Blues are the the first opponent and the Jets boasted a 3-1 regular season record over them including the 5-goal game from Patrik Laine in an 8-4 win. The other three games were the opening season game 1-0 win. A 5-4 OT win and a 0-1 loss in the last meeting on December 7th.

Since that last meeting the Blues and the Jets have gone in different directions. The Jets were 4th in the Central Division with 36 points just 3 behind Nashville while the Blues were third from the bottom with 24 points. By January 1st things had only become worse for the Blues as they were tied for dead last in the NHL at 34 points and Winnipeg was atop the Central and west with 52 points. A lead of 9 regulation or overtime wins is almost insurmountable but here we are the 2 and 3 seeds in the Central separate by 1 point.

The Blues went on a unprecedented run that had them earning 1.44 points every game they played compared to the Jets 1.09. The underlying numbers are even more impressive.

Oct-Dec 31at 5vs5 from Corsica

CF% Wpg-50.88 Stl- 49.43
CF/60 Wpg-58.07 Stl- 53.7
CA/60 Wpg-56.05 Stl- 55.12
xGF% Wpg 49.47 Stl-50.54
Sh% Wpg-7.89 Stl-8.1
Sv% Wpg-.916 Stl-.908

Jan-April 7th

CF% Wpg-47.2 Stl-53.15
CF/60 Wpg-54.11 Stl- 57.15
CA/60 Wpg 60.54 Stl-50.78
xGF% Wpg-46.18 Stl- 56.1
Sh% Wpg-8.83 Stl-8.15
Sv% Wpg-.926 Stl .934


The Jets managed to hold onto a position they had established (barely) and kept their pace up due to uptick in shooting percentage and save percentage while giving up far to many chances against and limiting their own probability for scoring.

The Blues, well they fixed the underlying issues and got good goaltending, as did the Jets, but the Blues took off like a bat out of hell. The Jets had their moments though, but for the most part muddled along playing generally uninspired hockey and when times were darkest the truth of internal strife began to spill out until the regular season finally ended. Now they sit staring at the hottest team in the NHL since January 1 not named Tampa Bay with only home ice as any real advantage.

Since the March first the Jets have gone 10-9 and have beaten playoff teams 6 times including Calgary, Boston, Carolina, Columbus and Nashville X2. The Blues have gone 11-8 with 4 wins over playoff teams: Avalanche, Lightning, Golden Knights, and Penguins.

Neither team has been spectacular down the stretch but what lies underneath that run? Much of the talk for both teams has been around goaltending, in particular Binnington. Down the stretch the Blues sensation went 9-3 since March first with a .916 average save % in wins and a .876 average in losses- this is all strengths. Connor Hellebuyck went 7-5 since March first and had an average save % of .948 in wins and a .894 in losses. The concerns with Hellebuyck seem to be being left behind in some degree while Binnington may be having some regression catching up.

Again it's a quick look and nothing definitive but hey- let's create a narrative. What can't be denied is that the Blues and Jets have some very different underlying numbers when it comes to possession and puck control. The Blues have it and the Jets are searching for it and based on the few games I have seen of the Blues this half the season there is a much bigger adherence to system and discipline with executing it.

That's the the underlying core issue for the Jets the execution of whatever it is Paul Maurice has created is a shell of it's former self when compared to last year. For any success in the playoffs this has to be sorted out as there's not a lot of room for error.

With all that being said the good news is Josh Morrissey is back practicing in a full jersey today and said he feels 100% ready. That means some tough decisions on the blue line and since it wa an optional skate today there's likely no clue to what decisions are coming on pairs and with forward combinations.

That's the next blog but let's leave with a couple of questions...

Has a bit or reality set in on Binnington?
Has Hellebuyck turned a corner?
Is there a line combination that could help the Jets with their shot volume while minimizing the volume they face?

As the old Dodge Hemi commercials used to say... "you're about to find out".

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