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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Detroit Red Wings:
1. A 5v5...edge?
New Jersey has been a horrible 5v5 team for quite some time. Even with some important bodies back, nothing really has changed. They've only managed to control 41.56% of the attempts and 41.22% of the chances over the last 10 games, which is remarkably bad. Yet somehow – some way – the Devils still enter this game playing the better 5v5 hockey. No, seriously. Over the same 10 game span, Detroit has managed a 39.68 Corsi For% and 37.64 Scoring Chance For%. They're playing treacherous hockey, and tonight they're in the latter half of a back-to-back. The Devils might not end up winning this game, but I think they're a decent bet to control the run of play.
2. Limited offense
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say no game this season will be played between two teams in such poor offensive form.
New Jersey has averaged 43.92 attempts/60 and 19.34 chances/60 at 5v5 over the last 10. Their yearly averages, which are abysmal, sit at 51.74 attempts/60 and 23.46 chances/60. So they're very noticeably heading south.
Detroit's dip has been similarly large. They've averaged 44.33 attempts/60 and 19.69 chances, compared to 52.3 attempts/60 and 23.99 chances/60 on the year.
With both teams banged up, playing for nothing, and struggling mightily to create offense, I wouldn't expect a high-event game tonight.
3. Mackenzie Blackwood
Earlier in the season, Blackwood provided the Devils with excellent goaltending while Cory Schneider struggled to find his way. Now the tables have turned completely. Schneider has been lights out of late, posting a .933 save percentage since February 15th. Blackwood's looked shaky at times and has managed just a .900 save percentage over that six-week span. With Detroit's offense playing the way it is, you would think this is a prime game for Blackwood to get back on track.
4. Signs of life
Pavel Zacha is really heating up offensively, having registered seven points and 12 chances over the last seven games. I don't know that I'd expect continued production going forward – at 5v5, his production rate is actually down from last season – but it's nice to see him playing with some confidence and getting rewarded. I still think he's pretty clearly a bottom-6er moving forward, though.
5. Competitive tanking
This game is extremely important to both sides as it's entirely possible – perhaps even likely – the winner finishes 28th while the loser finishes 29th. The difference in such is larger than you'd think. The team that slots 29th has a 33.9% of picking in the top-3 and an 84.8% of chance of picking in the top-5. The team that slots 28th has a 28.8% of winning a top-3 pick and just a 57.7% chance of picking in the top-5. The gap in chance of a top-3 pick isn't large, however, the difference in winning a top-5 pick is 27.1%. That's no small gap. Both coaches are signed beyond this season so losing benefits them just as much as it would anyone inside the front office. I can't help but wonder if some of their in-game decisions reflect that – such as giving, say, Joey Anderson more ice time than any other forward.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Kenny Agostino - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Stefan Noesen
Miles Wood - Pavel Zacha - Joey Anderson
Drew Stafford - Kevin Rooney - Michael McLeod
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Steven Santini
Mirco Mueller - Connor Carrick
Mackenzie Blackwood
Detroit (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Tyler Bertuzzi - Dylan Larkin - Anthony Mantha
Taro Hirose - Andreas Athanasiou - Luke Glendening
Darren Helm - Frans Nielsen** - Ryan Kuffner
Matt Puempel - Chris Ehn - Luke Witkowski
**Nielsen was banged up in last night's game. Martin Frk should draw in if he can't go.
Niklas Kronwall - Filip Hronek
Danny DeKeyser - Madison Bowey
Jake Chelios - Dylan McIlrath
Jonathan Bernier
Puck drop is just after 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG+ and FS-D.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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