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G74 Calgary Flames vs Ottawa Senators: Five things to watch

March 21, 2019, 1:09 PM ET [44 Comments]
Todd Cordell
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Ottawa Senators:

1. A massive 5v5 advantage

Staying out of the box has been a struggle for the Flames at times. If they avoid taking a handful of minors in this game, it should not be close because their edge at 5v5 is massive.

The Senators were always a bad 5v5 team. Without Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Thomas Chabot (injured), among others, they're even worse. Over the last 10 games, they've controlled a putrid 44% of the chances and have given up 31.84 per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That total only bests Detroit.

During the same span, the Flames have controlled 56.15% of the chances and generated 30.9 chances per 60 at 5v5. Just Vegas and Toronto have averaged more.

With a healthy lineup, a lot to play for (winning the division is extremely important), and Ottawa in a road back-to-back, there is no reason why the Flames shouldn't run away with this one.

2. Making an impression

James Neal will not play tonight, but he is expected to return to the lineup in the very near future. Though he has struggled mightily this season, I have no doubt the Flames will play him as soon as he's able and give him every opportunity to get back on track. In order to do so, somebody will have to come out of the lineup. Garnet Hathaway stands out as someone who *should* be replaced but I have my doubts that will actually happen. If true, Michael Frolik, Austin Czarnik, and Andrew Mangiapane are the three most in the cross hairs. One game will not make Bill Peters' decision – at least it shouldn't – but with Neal on the mend, these guys will be very closely monitored every night. They need to be at their best and make it impossible to remove them from the lineup.

3. Leveling the playing field

Old age + horrible defensive play have resulted in some really poor numbers for Craig Anderson. The 37-year-old sits 45th – below the likes of Cam Ward, James Reimer, Joonas Korpisalo and Louis Domingue – with a .909 SV% at 5v5. Not great!

Had the Flames gone with David Rittich, who owns a .929 save percentage in that game state, they'd have another big edge. Unfortunately, they're throwing it away starting Mike Smith instead. Though his form over the last few weeks has been better than it was earlier in the year, he has somehow still posted worse 5v5 numbers (.905 SV%) than Anderson despite facing significantly fewer dangerous shots.

If the Flames play down to competition, and the two sides somehow come close to even in chances, I think the Senators have a better chance of stealing a win than they would have if Rittich started.

4. Will the trend continue?

The Flames have had equal or fewer power play opportunities than their opponents in eight consecutive games. They've taken plenty of blatant penalties, which hasn't helped the cause, but there have also been plenty missed – on Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, in particular. Though the Senators are a fairly disciplined team, one would think it'll be tough to stay out of the box tonight when they're chasing play for the majority of the game. Could this be the night the streak ends? One can hope.

5. A scoring chance machine

Brady Tkachuk doesn't have the same clout as Matthew Tkachuk but I think it's coming. He is quietly having a spectacular rookie season for the Senators. He's averaging more than 2.0 points per 60 at 5v5, which is 1st line production. Tkachuk's also already established himself as one of the league's best chance generators ranking 10th – just behind Vladimir Tarasenko – in chances/60, and 3rd in high-danger chances per 60. Expect him to be in the middle of everything offensively for the Senators.

Here are the projected lineups:

Calgary

Johnny Gaudreau -Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway

Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson

Mike Smith

Ottawa (via DailyFaceoff.com)

**has hearing with the league, Filip Chlapik could draw in

Brady Tkachuk - J.G. Pageau** - Max Veronneau
Rudolfs Balcers - Chris Tierney - Magnus Paajarvi
Zack Smith - Oscar Lindberg - Bobby Ryan
Anthony Duclair - Brian Gibbons - Mikkel Boedker

Christian Wolanin - Cody Ceci
Ben Harpur - Dylan DeMelo
Mark Borowiecki - Christian Jaros

Craig Anderson

Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW, TSN5, and RDS.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

Recent posts:

Rittich, opportunistic scoring help Flames in key win over Blue Jackets

Where should James Neal play when he returns to the lineup?

On the Jason Zucker trade that almost was

Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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