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The entire season for the Ottawa Senators has been pretty meaningless with zero playoff aspirations, and with a mass exodus of their best players at the trade deadline, the last month of the season is going to be pretty uninspiring hockey. That’s not to say that there is nothing good to come of this season, as the progression of players like Thomas Chabot and Colin White are two much-needed developments. Furthermore, while the rest of the season will not be fun to watch, there still is one interesting aspect to follow: the players who are auditioning for a job next season.
There really aren’t that many locks for next seasons roster, and those auditioning include free agents and prospects looking to cement their place in the lineup. So who would I include in this group? For free agents, Oscar Lindberg, Brian Gibbons, Anders Nilsson, and Anthony Duclair would fit the description. In addition, prospects Rudolfs Balcers, Christian Wolanin, plus any others that get called up such as Logan Brown, Drake Batherson, and Filip Chlapik are playing for jobs. I don’t include impending UFA Magnus Paajarvi in here just because he has already been with the team for over a year, and the team knows exactly what they are getting with him. So right now, that’s six players on the NHL roster who are under some pressure.
But who is worth keeping for next season? And for the prospects, who should be on the team in October?
Oscar Lindberg: Pierre Dorion was talking him up last Monday when he acquired him, so there’s a good chance that he’s on the team in 2019-20. The 27-year-old is making just $1.7M, so he won’t be breaking the bank, plus Ottawa has way more cap room than is necessary. He has 13 points in 39 games this season and posted a career high of 28 points in 2015-16, so he’s nothing more than a fourth line player. He actually ranked 9th amongst forwards on Vegas in GAR, so it’s not as if he’s completely useless, and it isn’t the worst thing in the world to have a player like him on the team while Ottawa is in transition.
Brian Gibbons: Gibbons is a bit older at 31, and is making just $1M this season. The 5’8” winger has played just 173 career games in the NHL, and he had a career year last year with 26 points in 59 games for New Jersey. He struggled mightily with just 5 points in 44 games as a Duck, but he already has 3 points in 4 games as a Senator. Just like with Lindberg, I wouldn’t mind having him on the team as a mentor for some younger players, especially because he should be even cheaper than $1M.
He ranked 3rd on the Devils in GAR and WAR last season, although that is probably more of an anomaly than anything. He has been a consistent 30+ point AHL player, so I wonder if he will be able to take a two-way deal considering his dreadful stint in Anaheim. Signing both Lindberg and Gibbons wouldn’t be ideal due to taking up too many spots instead of prospects, meaning Gibbons might be the odd man out.
Anders Nilsson: A few weeks ago, a lot of people wanted to re-sign him for perhaps even more than one year. However, these past few weeks have shown why you need to wait for a larger sample size with goalies in order to make decisions. Nilsson’s SV% has dropped all the way down to .910% in 17 games, and his career SV% is only at .906%, which is still not good enough for a backup. His GSAA (goals saved above average) this season is at -0.06, which is almost exactly replacement level, and in five seasons in his career, he was above 0 just once. Marcus Hogberg has been killing it in Belleville recently with a .918 SV% in 24 games, and at the age of 25 (in November), he could take the backup role, with Mike Condon lurking in the background somewhere.
Filip Gustavsson and Joey Daccord should then be the AHL goalies, so it’s not as if there is ample room to keep Nilsson. If Anderson is moved, then perhaps they could keep Nilsson, but I don’t see the point when he has proven to be a sub-par backup. I just hope Dorion has learned to not give out multi-year contracts to backup goalies of this calibre.
Anthony Duclair: Duclair has impressed so far, with two goals in five games and numerous chances in those games. He is still an RFA in the summer due to his age (24 in August), so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be re-signed. He is making a measly $650k this season, so even if a raise pushes him to around $1.5M, Ottawa can easily afford that. Out of the four players acquired this season via trade, Duclair has the highest ceiling by far, and a rebuild is the perfect time to see what he can do.
Rudolfs Balcers: Balcers scored again yesterday, bringing his point total up to seven points in 21 games. With 28 points in 38 games in Belleville this year and a team-leading 48 points in 67 games the previous season with the Barracuda, I think Balcers is ready to be in the NHL full-time. Now that Ryan Dzingel is gone, he has a path to a spot in the top-six along with Brady Tkachuk, and it should be his job to lose come October. He doesn’t need to be re-signed in the summer, but this stretch of games until the end of the season is certainly an audition for next season.
Christian Wolanin: It’s baffling as to why Wolanin was ever out of the lineup (and even in the AHL) the past few months, because when he plays, it’s pretty clear that he is the team’s second best defenseman. He has 6 points in 15 games, and has 26 in 35 games in the AHL, which is a fantastic sign of something the Senators defense corps needs: offense. Losing Erik Karlsson and Chris Wideman sapped a lot of offense out of the group, and Wolanin has already proven that he can be a top-four defenseman, if not a top-pairing one. He is an RFA this summer, and considering he has only played 25 career games, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets with the Senators.
He’s technically in an audition the rest of the way, but it’s ridiculous to group him in with the other youngsters like Max Lajoie, Christian Jaros, and Ben Harpur at this point.
The rest: Drake Batherson, Logan Brown, and Filip Chlapik should all be in the NHL for most of the season next year, as the three of them have been fantastic in Belleville. Batherson was hit-and-miss in Ottawa, but considering he has 51 points in 43 games in the AHL, he needs to begin next season in the NHL. Brown has put it all together the past few months and has amassed 35 points in 41 games, showcasing the ceiling he has when he stays healthy. I’m not confident there will be a spot for him right out of camp though due to not enough spots being available. The same can be said for Chlapik, as he doesn’t have too much else to prove at the AHL level, but he only has 3 NHL games this season and might be the continuous victim of a numbers game.
Verdict: I would let Gibbons and Nilsson walk via free agency, unless Gibbons would be willing to sign a two-way contract. Duclair is easily worth keeping, and I think I would be fine with re-signing Lindberg to a one or two-year deal as well, as long Paajarvi is not re-signed. As for the prospects, I would like to have Balcers, Wolanin, and Batherson in the NHL immediately. Perhaps the lineup could look something like this in October:
Tkachuk-White-Batherson
Balcers-Tierney-Ryan
Formenton-Pageau-Duclair
Smith-Lindberg-Boedker
Chabot-DeMelo
Wolanin-Ceci
Lajoie-Jaros
Borowiecki
Anderson
Hogberg
The good news is that there would be plenty of players that would be able to be called up throughout the season, as most of the Senators best prospects are close to NHL-ready. Furthermore, it’s entirely plausible that instead of Alex Formenton, Chlapik takes that spot on the third line. This lineup is far from exciting, but different call-ups would add some intrigue in 2019-2020.
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