By Tom T
n my last post I briefly discussed Matt Duchene. Hot dog, he is now a Blue Jacket. Needless to say, I am super excited. I don’t expect to see him in the lineup tonight in OTT as that would be a quick turnaround and a bit awkward. Look for his debut in Union Blue on Saturday night at home vs. SJS.
What in the world does this mean for the Russians? My guess is two scenarios:
1. CBJ is going for it this year. They keep everyone and make their run. This week I mentioned that Jarmo has been building this team for the past 5 years and now it is time to see what it can do. Go for broke, let ‘em play. Hold on to Bob and Bread and see where it takes them. Huge risk, potentially HUGE reward. If that was the only move C-Bus makes there is an expectation to win the 1st round and compete in the 2nd round.
2. Trade away the Russians. Maybe two 1st round picks were traded away because they know that two 1st round picks are coming back? This would not surprise me at all. Think back to trading for Panarin. He was brought in once David Clarkson was off the books.
The rest of the trade
Duchene is a Jacket, that much we know. But what else happened in this trade? Here is the full trade:
Sens get:
· CBJ 1st Round Pick in 2019
· Vitali Abramov
· Jonathan Davidsson
· Conditional CBJ 1st Round Pick in 2020*
Jackets get:
· Matt Duchene
· Julius Bergman
*condition: If CBJ re-sign Duchene a Sens get CBJ 1st Round Pick in 2020
At this point none of the prospects are of huge significance. Bergaman has been in the AHL since 2014 when he was drafted by SJS. He is a big defenseman standing 6’1” around 200 lbs. Trevor Shackles over on the OTT blog is reporting that he is headed back to the Swedish league.
Abramov is a younger player with potential. That hurts an already struggling CBJ farm system. Davidsson has an above average chance of making the Sens next season on the 3rd or 4th line.
Teams top prospects were not moved in this deal.
I stated that the CBJ is thin in the farm system. Trading prospects doesn’t help that, but also potentially not having a 1st round and 2nd round in 2019 and without a 1st round in 2020 further restricts development at the lower levels. Why is the C-Bus farm system lacking so badly? Look at the current roster to help answer that questions. Ryan Murry (1st 2012), Joonas Korpisalo (3rd 2012), Josh Anderson (4th 2012), Alex Wennberg (1st 2013), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3rd 2013), Zach Werenski (1st 2015), Markus Nutivaara (7th 2015) and P-L Dubois (1st 2016) are all on the NHL roster. That is 8 players drafted that have made their way to the NHL roster that could be ‘in-the-system’.
Here are the real questions that have yet to be answered about this trade:
Q1. Was Duchene worth a first round draft pick as a rental?
Q2. Was Duchene worth two 1st round draft picks if he re-signs?
A1. I cannot say yes to this for several reasons. We don’t know if CBJ are getting any 1st round picks back for assets they could be moving. And we don’t know if this will push them over the top to win in the playoffs. If Columbus gets 1st rounders back for Bob and Bread, yes, I’m okay with this. If they keep the Russians and win in the playoffs (1st round victory and compete in the 2nd round) I believe it was worth it.
A2. Does Duchene want/get an 8-year contract in C-Bus? That would make him 36 years old at the end of the contract. It would also pay $8M per year give or take a mill. For the first 4 years of that contract I would say that it was totally worth it. The second half of that contract I would wonder how the Jackets escape Salary Cap Purgatory. Honestly, believe he would end up as the #2 center on this team if he re-signs.
Putting on my GM cap
This was a put-butts-in-seats move. Make a splash and get fans attention. I also believe it was very calculated. There is more to come. I still believe Panarin is gone. They can get at least a 1st rounder for him. If not, he leaves at the end of the season. As GM of the CBJ, Jarmo is now in the driver’s seat. He set the price for top level talent and now has a chance to cash in on it.
Bob’s record is less than desirable in the playoffs. I believe he has run his course in Columbus. He moves for a 2nd round pick or better and C-Bus takes a swing at Jimmy Howard.
Ends up being my UFAs for your UFAs with a greater chance for the receiving teams to sign all of them in the off season.
Put on your GM cap and let’s debate in the comments. If you haven’t picked up my screen name is GeriHattric7.
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