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Last Think Tank before the trade deadline:
Confusion with Duchene
It all started with this news from Darren Dreger:
It seemed like the sensible move considering Ottawa does not want to risk Duchene getting injured, but then the next day apparently Duchene hadn’t been told anything directly by the team:
In fact, even Guy Boucher was in the dark (at least as of yesterday morning):
Neither of these two have any reason to lie, so I guess they haven’t been told anything about Duchene not playing. I’m sure once you are reading this, news about if he is playing or not will be out, so this will become dated pretty quickly. However, I do think it would be strange if he plays, mainly because everybody knows that he is going to be traded, so there is literally no upside to keeping him in the lineup. Perhaps Duchene and Boucher legitimately hadn’t been told anything about the situation but something from the front office or from Duchene’s agent had leaked, and that’s why the media knew about it.
It’s an odd situation overall, and I tend to believe everyone just because there is no benefit to lying in this instance. Furthermore, it’s not exactly shocking news to hear that he isn’t going to play because that makes the most sense for the team.
Clock is ticking
The trade deadline is just four days away. Pierre Dorion has a little over a day to deal with each of the big UFAs, and that’s assuming that he isn’t even going to be able to trade Cody Ceci, Magnus Paajarvi, or anybody else. Although he has a lot of suitors for Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel, make no mistake: all the pressure is on him, because the success of the rebuild depends on how well he does in the coming days. With some legitimately good pieces coming back, perhaps the rebuild doesn’t have to be as long as people think.
I thought that at least one of the big three would be moved by now, and I’m going to get worried if at least one or two haven’t been traded by Sunday night, as Dorion might even run out of time. I’m sure he won’t be sleeping at all in the next 96 hours.
Blue chippers
If the deadline is to be considered somewhat of a “success” (as successful as it can be given the circumstances), Ottawa has to acquire at least one blue-chip prospect---someone who has a high ceiling and can be a real difference maker. Teams that could potentially trade for one of the big three include Winnipeg, Nashville, Vegas, Calgary, New York Islanders, Boston, Columbus, and perhaps a few other mystery teams. Out of those teams, there are a few names that stand out.
Winger Kristian Vesalainen (WPG), RW Eeli Tolvanen (NSH), D Dante Fabbro (NSH), D Erik Brannstrom (VGK), D Juuso Valimaki (CGY), C Dillon Dube (CGY), D Bode Wilde (NYI), C Liam Foudy (CBJ), and winger Vitaly Abramov (CBJ) would all be fantastic additions if possible. Now, some of those are less likely returns than others, and there are some names such as Cody Glass, Urho Vaakanainen, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson, and Ilya Sorokin that I did not include because it seems extremely unlikely that those players would be moved. Furthermore, there are some on the edge of this tier that would still be a bit exciting such as Kieffer Bellows or Sami Niku, although it wouldn’t be quite the same.
At the end of the day, Ottawa couldn’t even get a legitimate blue-chip prospect (Norris and Balcers are a level below) for the best defenseman in the game, so they might find it difficult to acquire any of the aforementioned names for Stone or Duchene. I’m not saying I expect the Senators to acquire one of these blue-chippers, but it would be a huge win if they could convince a team that they desperately need another offensive weapon.
Charlie Coyle trade
Charlie Coyle was traded to the Boston Bruins for Ryan Donato and a 5th round pick yesterday, which is a decent return for a top-nine winger. Coyle still has one year remaining on his contract, so this isn’t a perfect comparison, but this trade is decent news for the Senators regarding Ryan Dzingel. Dzingel is at worst just as good offensively, and has been much better this season (16 more points in 3 fewer games), so perhaps a deal with him could be something similar---a good prospect+a late round pick, or conversely, a first round pick+another mid-round pick or a first round pick+an average prospect. Donato’s stock has fallen a bit this season, but he has been great in the NCAA and AHL, so there’s a good chance that he will be an NHL regular. For what it’s worth, I think I would have done that exact same deal if it was Dzingel instead of Coyle.
The interesting thing about this too is that apparently the trade does not preclude the Bruins from pursuing Mark Stone:
More suitors certainly can’t hurt.
Can’t afford to not move 3 UFAs
Pierre Dorion has four days to move three players, unless they magically complete a Hail Mary with Mark Stone. Matt Duchene isn’t re-signing. It doesn’t look like Ryan Dzingel is either. There will be a concrete answer very soon if Stone is willing to stay or not as well. Knowing all that, it would be absolutely inexcusable to not have all three of these players either traded or signed to an extension by 3pm on Monday.
I have this awful feeling in my gut that one of these three will not be dealt at the deadline so that the team can try to convince him over the next few months to stay with the Senators long-term. They did a similar thing with Erik Karlsson last year by not dealing him at last years deadline, although that was different because they at least had the summer to trade him as well. Dorion cannot afford to have any one of these three in no man’s land for the next few months, because why would any of their minds change in that time frame?
Just rip the band-aid off, and get these deals done. Nobody is going to buy the “we’re trying hard to re-sign him” narratives after the deadline, because it’s not happening. Unless Stone has a new contract extension or is 100% committed to staying, even he has to be shipped out.
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