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G60 Calgary Flames vs New York Islanders: Five things to watch

February 20, 2019, 2:16 PM ET [48 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the New York Islanders:

1. Following up

The Flames have not played especially well at 5v5 of late. Up until last game, of course. They mustered up 14 high-danger chances during that game state, which was the most since January 7th against a putrid defensive team in the Chicago Blackhawks. The Flames not only generated plenty of quality looks, and converted four times, but gave up little to nothing on the defensive side of things.

The key now is following that up, which won't be easy against the Islanders. They are 18-5-2 over the last 25 games and rank top-5 in suppressing chances (4th), high-danger looks (3rd), and goals (1st) during that stretch. Defense is their M.O., so producing chances with any consistency will not be a walk in the park.

2. Little margin for error

As mentioned previously, the Islanders don't give up many shots or chances. Unsurprisingly, that leads to very few goals against. No team has allowed fewer goals than the Islanders, who have conceded *more* than three in a game just once since Christmas. They're extremely difficult to score on, which means you really can't give up much and still come out on top. Mike Smith must be near-perfect in this one. If he hands a soft goal or two to the Islanders, it'll be nearly impossible to make up for it.

3. Sparking Matthew Tkachuk

The gritty two-way winger has seemingly hit a wall. Over the last 12 games, he's managed just two points at 5v5. Two. For perspective, 17 other Flames have equaled or bettered those totals, including guys like Garnet Hathaway, Austin Czarnik (in three games), Derek Ryan, James Neal, and Oliver Kylington. Not exactly guys you expect to keep up with Tkachuk. He has generated some chances, but it's not like he's piling them up and just can't get anything to go. I thought he looked really good on the top line during the final 40 minutes of the Arizona game and I'm interested to see if he can keep trending upwards tonight. He has a great opportunity to do so alongside Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau.

4. Quick outlets

The Islanders like to dump the puck in. A lot. Obviously, they have some skill players who are more prone to going east-west (Mathew Barzal is the best example) but, as a team, they play a very north-south, heavy style of game. They like to put pucks in deep, grind, and pressure opponents into turnovers. The best way to prevent that from happening is to win those puck races and move it quickly. Luckily, the Flames have the defensive personnel that should allow them to do it. There are a lot of puck movers, and there are a lot of good skaters who can elude checks and buy an extra second or two to make a play. They just have to execute.

5. The Achilles heel

If the Islanders have one, it's their penalty kill. Oddly enough, a defensive-minded team that smothers opponents at 5v5 is horrible when shorthanded. They rank 30th in attempts against/60, 30th in chances against/60, 28th in high-danger chances against/60, and inside the bottom half of the league when it comes to preventing goals. They'll give up their share of chances, and the Flames certainly have the talent to take advantage when they arise.

Here are the projected lineups:

Calgary

Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Matthew Tkachuk
Michael Frolik - Mikael Backlund - Elias Lindholm
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway

Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson

Mike Smith

New York Islanders (via dailyfaceoff.com)

Anders Lee - Brock Nelson - Jordan Eberle
Tom Kuhnhackl - Mathew Barzal - Josh Bailey
Anthony Beauvillier - Valtteri Filppula - Leo Komarov
Matt Martin - Casey Cizikas - Cal Clutterbuck

Nick Leddy - Johnny Boychuk
Adam Pelech - Ryan Pulock
Devon Toews - Scott Mayfield

Robin Lehner

Puck drop is just after 9:30 eastern and can be seen on SN1 and MSG+.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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