Nate Schmidt, 12/29/18 (USA Today Sports)
Currently, the Vegas Golden Knights are facing some definite adversity. Following their fourth-straight home loss, at the paws of the Coyotes, the Golden Knights find themselves losers of six of their last eight games and seven of their last ten. Despite how truly grim that sounds, Vegas remains in third place in the Pacific Division with a nine point lead over the fourth place Vancouver Canucks. While it feels like the sky is falling in Vegas, rest assured, everything will be alright.
"This team sucks."
"Trade everybody."
"How can they be this bad?"
"Why do the other goalies have their best games ever against us?"
Leaving the T-Mobile Arena, following a 5-2 loss to the Arizona Coyotes, you could hear the fans' ire throughout Toshiba Plaza. A normally fanatically excited and upbeat group showed their frustration with the current state of the Vegas Golden Knights. While the games have been entertaining and the team seems to pass the eye test, the results just aren't there at the moment. Vegas' own head coach, Gerard Gallant, may have shown more frustration than the fans in his post-game press conference, going as far as telling reporters that his message to the team following the loss was "none of your business". In a fragile time for an ultimately good hockey club, this is a troubling sign. The Golden Knights need to right the ship and need level-headed coaching in order to do so. Gallant and his crew need to get back to work, looking for a way to break out of their current slump.
So what exactly is wrong with the Golden Knights right now? Why can't they win games? Why are they struggling against the Panthers, Hurricanes, and Coyotes of the NHL? Why do they make opposing goalies look like Vezina award winners at times? Can this even be turned around? I'm glad "you" asked because I have some thoughts....
* Vegas has trouble with teams that can skate with them.
The Vegas Golden Knights live and die by Gallant's emphasis on skating fast and forechecking. On the surface, these are things a team needs to do to win. Pressure the opponent, get the puck, and outwork them. From there, you need a little more purpose and a little more direction. It is becoming more and more apparent, that tbe Golden Knights simply skate hard, forecheck, and then don't have an identity with the puck. Sure, they rack up huge shot totals, evidenced by their Corsi For (total shots generated, not just on goal) which sits at fourth in the entire NHL.
Shot generation is a good indicator of which teams push play and control the puck, but it clearky doesn't tell the whole story. Vegas consistently wins the Corsi For/Against battle in wins and in losses. Usually, their team speed gives them numerous looks and opportunities, due to their unrelenting forecheck and tenacity. Last night against the Coyotes, the Golden Knights had 54 shot attempts to the 44 of the Coyotes, yet Arizona scored two more goals (with a goalie in net).
Natural Stat Trick's Gameflow(Corsi) Chart
Arizona capitalized using their speed, something the Golden Knights try to center their attack around. Arizona had a number of odd-man rushes and had success around the edges of the Vegas defense. Their play through the neutral zone was fairly crisp with the puck and their defensemen jumped a bunch of Golden Knight outlet passes. These observations may be why Gallant feels his team, "played a soft game", "didn't battle hard enough", and ultimately "didn't like the way we played". The Vegas coach was very critical of his team following a game in which they outshot, out chanced, and out hit the opposition. Simply put, when a team can skate as well and as hard as Vegas, they are able to generate odd-man rushes and take advantage of Vegas' emphasis on head-down, hard forechecking. Sometimes the problem is just effort or speed related for Vegas. They need to do a better job knowing which teams they can run and gun with and which teams they should play a cleaner, more strategic game against. Effort wasn't the problem on Tuesday, as much as the team would like to say it was.
* Marc-Andre Fleury needs a break.
Marc-Andre Fleury (USA Today Sports)
While no goalie is perfect, Fleury has been about as close as you can get. He leads the league in shutouts with six, two more than Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa. Flower, as he is affectionately referred to by his teammates and fans, can steal games on his ability alone. Right now, Fleury isn't always making the routine saves he's accustomed to.
Last season, Fleury started just 46 games for the Golden Knights, missing time mid-season, due to injury. Last night, Fleury made his 50th start of the season, with 24 games remaining in the season. Backup Malcolm Subban just recently returned from an undisclosed illness, so it's unlikely we see him in the next handful of games. AHL starter, Maxime Lagace got a start while sitting in for Subban, a loss against the Carolina Hurricanes on February 1st. Subban's last starts came on December 29th and January 6th. Going back to Subban's start on the 29th, Fleury has started 15 games, with Subban and Lagace playing one game intermittently between.
The Golden Knights have been riding Fleury all season. On top of his overwhelming game time, Fleury is tasked with being the face of the team, a role he revels in, but also comes with some added pressure. It has to wear on a guy, whether he would acknowledge it or not, handling such an on-ice and off-ice workload. While they're still securely in third place, a playoff position, Vegas needs to give their main man a break, to get the real Marc-Andre Fleury back. Has he been bad, no, but he certainly isn't operating at 100% which Vegas clearly needs in their push to the playoffs.
* Vegas needs to convert on their high danger chances.
For a team that falls into stretches of an overabundance of perimeter play, the Vegas Golden Knights compile a high amount of high danger chances each game. On the year, the Golden Knights rank third in the NHL with 580 High Danger Chances For (HDCF) at 5-on-5 play. Despite their abundance of HDCF, Vegas ranks 13th in Goals For at 5-on-5 play with 115. These numbers translate into approximately one goal per five High Danger Chances. Leading the NHL in Goals For at 5-on-5 play, the Toronto Maple Leafs average one goal for every 3.88 HDCF, showing the visible difference in finishing rate.
At the trade deadline, it would be beneficial for the Vegas Golden Knights' General Manager, George McPhee, to look into adding a proven scorer to this current roster. Regardless of how good he feels his club is, they need a true finisher on offense. As of today's story, the Golden Knights are led by Jonathan Marchessault with 19 goals on the season. Out of all 31 NHL teams, Vegas' goal-scoring leader only ranks higher than the highest scorer on four other teams. Of those four, only one currently possesses a playoff spot and that is the New York Islanders, led by Anders Lee's 18 goals.
But wait, didn't George McPhee try to do this last season, at the trade deadline and again in the offseason? Glad "you" asked again. You're full of good questions today.
Tomas Tatar with Vegas (USA Today Sports)
Yes, McPhee went out and acquired Tomas Tatar at the trade deadline last season. Prior to becoming a Golden Knight, Tatar compiled at least 19 goals each season, since 2013-14, with the not-especially-good Detroit Red Wings. Last season, pre-trade, Tatar had 16 goals in 62 games. With Vegas, Tatar scored four goals in 20 games, but never seemed to fit in, appearing as a healthy scratch multiple times. He simply did not fit into Gallant's system that centers around being fast and physical. His struggle is similar to that of current Golden Knight, Oscar Lindberg who is extremely skilled, but more of a slow-it-down, half wall possession player. Some guys fit in better than others, depending on the system and coaching. This season, Tatar has 17 goals and 40 points, in 55 games with the Canadiens, a closer pace to what he produced in Detroit.
In an attempt to right his "wrong", McPhee dealt Tatar to the Montreal Canadiens for another perennial goal scorer in Max Pacioretty. Patches amassed 30 or more goals, five times since 2011-12. His lowest goal total in that span was 15 goals during the 2012-13 season in only 44 games, due to the NHL labor dispute lockout. Pacioretty, like Tatar, is the shoot-first type of player Vegas seemed to need. So far, Pacioretty has 16 goals in 45 games, a good pace, but it doesn't seem to be doing the trick.
Max Pacioretty (USA Today Sports)
Pacioretty has missed time due to injury twice this season, hence the numbers. Despite Pacioretty's production, Vegas still lacks enough finish. Alex Tuch's emergence as a scoring threat has helped, but he currently plays on the same line as Pacioretty, the only true sniper on the roster, sans Brandon Pirri. Would a "demotion" to the third line be wise for Tuch or Pacioretty in order to support Cody Eakin and provide more depth scoring? It probably couldn't hurt. Paul Stastny and either Pacioretty or Tuch could keep line two rolling, while losing the other winger. Line two could still be effective taking on a player like Pirri or Lindberg. Pirri even lit the league on fire in Pacioretty's place, while he was on the IR.
All-in-all, the Vegas Golden Knights are struggling, but can make very small changes to both roster construction and philosophy, to get more out of their team. Despite their struggles, this Vegas team can be as good as the inaugural edition. A little more emphasis on execution and offensive scheme, with a little less emphasis on the jam and forechecking could go a long way for the Golden Knights. Whether or not Gerard Gallant the man to do it, has yet to be seen, but the moral of the story is to relax and give it time.
The Vegas Golden Knights are not a team in a perminant state of dispair and disrepair. With minor adjustments and a possible trade or two, they can bounce out of this rut, charging into the playoffs with the confidence and momentum Golden Knights fans were spoiled with last season. Right now, something has to give, but don't light the fires and burn the jerseys just yet because this team has the potential to be great; let's see if they can do it.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@VGK_Buzz) for your Golden Knights news, analysis, and updates.
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