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Five observations from Calgary vs Tampa Bay:
1. The big guns were out-matched at 5v5
Calgary's top-6 has been nothing short of exceptional this season. Elias Lindholm's emergence alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan has given the Flames one of the league's best top lines, and Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund have anchored what is once again a very strong 2nd unit. Win or lose, that group of five has played very well almost every time out. Last night was one of the rare exceptions.
They spent a lot of time going toe-to-toe with Tampa Bay's top-6, which might be the best in the league, and it did not end well. Not just on the scoreboard, either.
At 5v5, the Big Five™ combined to record just two scoring chances (zero high-danger). They couldn't generate much of anything, which is not at all surprising considering how much time was spent in the defensive zone. The Lightning dominated on the shot clock when the top two lines were out there.
2. Andrei Vasilevskiy was not tested
An off-night for the top-6 was a big factor, of course, but as a whole, the Flames didn't make Vasilevskiy's life difficult enough – particularly at 5v5, where the Lightning defense has struggled mightily of late (they rank 28th in high-danger chances against/60 over the last 10). The Flames mustered up just four HD chances in that game state and looked toothless during large stretches of play. I mean, eight of their 17 shots came from defenders.
At 5v5, Vasilevskiy owns a .927 save percentage and has stopped 7.5 goals above average. He's kind of good. That means the chance volume *has* to be there in order to do some real damage. It wasn't, which just might be why the Flames beat Vasilevskiy once in 47 minutes of 5v5 play.
After an underwhelming performance last night, the Flames now sit 25th in chances/60 and 24th in HD chances/60 over the last 10 games. They really need to get their offense going again.
3. The 3rd line showed up
One positive was the play of the Sam Bennett, Mark Jankowski, James Neal line. They saw a lot of Tampa Bay's 3rd defense pairing and took advantage of that, spending plenty of time working them down low in the cycle game. They were able to get the Lightning running around a little bit and that resulted in a handful of good looks around the net, which can't be said of any other unit. Even though the chances were there – they accounted for seven of 16 at 5v5 (43.75%!) – the results were not. Maybe, just maybe, that speaks to why the Flames are looking for another top-9 forward.
4. It was another tough night for David Rittich
I'm not going to blame him for the six-spot. I'm not. The Lightning are the best offensive team in the league, a few of their goals were generated by pinpoint triangular passing (it reminded me a lot of the
infamous Barcelona passing networks), and there really wasn't a lot there that made you think 'wow, he's off tonight'. He was just beaten by an elite team featuring plenty of elite talents. It happens.
With all that said, Rittich posted a sub .900 save percentage for the fifth time in eight games. The three exceptions: two games against a volume shooting Carolina team that lacks finishers, and a horrible Edmonton team with three good forwards.
I think Rittich will be fine – that's all he has to be on many nights – but this recent stretch of play has his season save percentage down to .911 – only a hair over his career average of .909. If this is a sign the wheels are coming unhinged a bit, that's really bad news given the alternative (Mike Smith) simply can't be relied upon. Let's hope that's not the case.
5. Ending with a positive
Entering play, the Lightning had allowed just 26 power play goals in 56 games. They rank 2nd in goals against/60 while shorthanded and their underlying numbers (6.18 xGA/60 - 6th) suggest that's not really a fluke. Limiting chances + Vasilevskiy in net = a very strong penalty kill. If there's one thing the Flames as a team should feel good about, it's capitalizing twice on four power play opportunities against the Lightning PK.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
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