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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Washington Capitals:
1. A big 5v5 edge
The Capitals are not a good 5v5 team. At least they haven't been for *checks notes* 50 games now. It's not that they can't generate chances or score goals. They can. It's that they give up way too much at the other end. On the year, they rank 29th in shot attempts against/60, 28th in chances against/60, and 29th in high-danger chances against/60 at 5v5. They allow quality and quantity. Against a team with the firepower Calgary has, that's very dangerous – especially given their ability to dominate the shot share.
Throw Alex Ovechkin's absence into the mix and the Flames have the clear advantage at 5v5 heading into tonight's game. We'll see if it materializes.
2. Extra power play opportunities
The Flames are really good at drawing penalties. Only the Avalanche (4.38/60) create extra man opportunities at a higher rate than the Flames (4.25/60). That is hardly a surprise given the Flames a) play fast and; b) roster numerous players – led by Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and James Neal – who have a history of very positive differentials.
If the year to date is any indication, we should expect the Flames to continue drawing their share of calls against a physical, aggressive Capitals team that takes a lot of penalties. They've been given the gate 4.13 times per 60, which is the 2nd highest rate in the NHL. They're not particularly good at killing penalties, either, considering no team has allowed more power play markers this season.
If the two sides play to their norms, the Flames *should* get an extra chance or two on the PP. That'd make it very difficult for the Capitals to win the special teams battle, which may be necessary given Calgary's expected edge at 5v5.
3. Washington's big advantage
Braden Holtby is not having his best season. Still, he is – and has played – much better than Mike Smith, who will mend the crease for the Flames tonight.
On the year, Holtby owns a .918 SV% and .805 HD-SV% at 5v5. In comparison, Smith owns a .900 SV% and .796 HD-SV%. Again, Holtby hasn't been great – it's hard to blame him given Washington's defensive issues – and there is still a fairly sizeable gap between the two.
While Calgary is the better side in a lot of areas, and that's only aided by Ovechkin's suspension, Washington should be better between the pipes and goaltending is the great equalizer.
4. Michael Frolik heating up
Small sample size, etc, etc. but over the last 10 games, Frolik has recorded seven points at 5v5. That's more than Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, et all. His rate numbers are terrific over that span, too, as he sits 2nd in points/60 *and* shots/60. He is playing very well right now and taking full advantage of the opportunity he is getting alongside Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. Keep him there.
5. Musical chairs
Alex Ovechkin averages 2.58 points and 9.47 chances per 60 at 5v5. His replacement, Chandler Stephenson, averages 1.13 points and 3.39 chances per 60. If the Capitals fall behind in this game, don't be surprised if they shake up the lines and test out several different players in that spot. Andre Burakovsky (1.38 points, 8.4 chances/60) seems like a natural fit to move up, especially considering he is being shopped, but I wouldn't be surprised to see others tested there as well.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Washington (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Chandler Stephenson - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie
Jakub Vrana - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Tom Wilson
Brett Connolly - Lars Eller - Devante Smith-Pelly
Dmitrij Jaskin - Travis Boyd - Andre Burakovsky
Michal Kempny - John Carlson
Dmitri Orlov - Matt Niskanen
Brooks Orpik - Madison Bowey
Braden Holtby
Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and NBCSWA.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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