Marc-Andre Fleury (USA Today Sports)
Last night, the Vegas Golden Knights were beat at home by the Minnesota Wild who hold a 4-1-0 record against the Golden Knights dating back to the inaugural 2017-18 season. Vegas picked up a win in their first meeting of 2018, taking the 2-1 shootout win. Devan Dubnyk tended the net in both games for Minnesota and turned in two solid performances, allowing just three goals with 71 saves on 74 Golden Knight shots on goal. In both meetings, Vegas sustained offensive zone pressure and got plenty of pucks on net.
Vegas opened the scoring in this one, with Alex Tuch’s 16th goal of the season coming on the power play, just 3:37 into the game. Minnesota responded with two goals in 1:13 around the midway point of the second period. Marcus Foligno and Eric Staal recorded the Wild goals, taking a 2-1 lead. Max Pacioretty tied the game for Vegas 2:14 later, with his 14th of the season. Heading into the third period, the teams were tied at two goals apiece. The Wild made a strong push, backed by huge saves from Dubnyk, and eventually took the lead when Charlie Coyle beat Marc-Andre Fleury with 5:21 left in the game. Wild captain Mikko Koivu added an empty-netter, coming off a great individual effort for Zach Parise, sealing the 4-2 win for the Wild. Parise’s coach Bruce Boudreau described the final play by Parise as “determination at its finest” and I couldn’t find a better way to say it. Parise blocked a shot, outhustled everyone on the ice, and made a pass to Koivu while falling to the ice, drawing a penalty on Vegas. It was as impressive of a play as you can get on an empty net. With the win, Minnesota (25-21-3) rose to 3rd place in the Central Division. Some select Wild fans were able to enjoy the win in Vegas. When asked about the effect of the traveling Wild fans Dubnyk said, “When we scored, it was loud. It definitely makes it a lot more entertaining.”.
Devan Dubnyk (USA Today Sports)
Recently, there has been a trend of Vegas dominating play, yet failing to pick up the win. Even in losses, the Vegas Golden Knights turn in superior advanced metrics, which are the stats often used to tell the story behind the game (well, in most cases). Teams, writers, and fans can all use the advanced metrics to try to tell the story behind the game and the final outcome. This writer in particular prioritizes three advanced stats in particular: Corsi For %, Scoring Chances For %, and High Danger Chances For %. Corsi For % compares the percentage of shots generated and given up by each team. The stat is used to display Gameflow and sustained offensive pressure. If a team generates a high number of shots (on goal, blocked, missed) they were usually controlling the game. Scoring Chances For % and High Danger Chances For % are tallies of each time a team had a legitimate chance to score and, in more detail, chances to score from the high danger areas (the slot and the net front). Combined with a good shot chart (visual representation of the ice with marks where each shot was taken), a reasonable summary of the game in question could be gained.
Natural Stat Trick Heat Map (shot chart)
Vegas can be a bit of an anomaly when it comes to the metrics. With such overwhelming team speed and a fast, forechecking mentality, the Golden Knights tend to sparkle in most statistical categories. Where the knights begin to slip, is in their shot selection. On the season, the Vegas Golden Knights have the third highest Corsi For % at 54.76%, trailing only San Jose and Carolina, two other fast, high-output teams. This means that the Golden Knights are the third best team in the NHL of suppressing opponents shot attempts and generating their own. Overall, the Golden Knights only trail the Sharks in total shots generated with a Corsi For total of 3,257. Despite this revelation, Vegas has a habit of losing games that they have dominated territorially.
Does this phenomenon come down to something very simple, where advanced stats and metrics aren’t needed? Are the Vegas Golden Knights simply not good enough finishers? Is their shot selection too poor to beat the upper echelon goalies and defenses? Devan Dubnyk is certainly one of the best goaltenders in the league. Following the game, Max Pacioretty credited Dubnyk, “…their goalie definitely made some big saves. Flower made some great saves also……, but regardless of that, we did have opportunities to win the game at the end, but we just weren’t able to put it in.”
Below you will find a summary of every Golden Knights loss so far this season, along with the goaltender that bested them. Each loss is important in an attempt to find an answer to the following question: Can the Vegas Golden Knights beat good goaltending?
Vegas Golden Knight Losses and the Goalie That Beat Them:
Philadelphia
10/4/18: 5-2 Home Loss vs Brian Elliott (23 saves on 25 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Jon Marchessault (1), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (SH, 1)
(Beat Elliott nine days later, 20 saves on 21 shots)
Buffalo
10/8/18: 4-2 Road Loss vs Carter Hutton (35 saves on 37 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Erik Haula (1), Jonathan Marchessault (2)
(Beat Hutton eight days later)
Washington
10/10/18: 5-2 Road Loss vs Braden Holtby (29 saves on 31 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by: Cody Eakin (1), Reilly Smith (1)
(Beat Holtby 5-3 on 12/4/18 in Washington)
Pittsburgh
10/11/18: 4-2 Road Loss vs Casey DeSmith (35 saves on 37 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by: Tomas Nosek (1), Reilly Smith (2)
(Beat DeSmith 7-3 on 1/19/19, 28 saves on 34 shots, multiple breakaway saves)
Vancouver
10/24/18: 3-2 Shootout Loss vs Jacob Markstrom (33 saves on 35 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by: Max Pacioretty (2), Ryan Reaves (2)
(Beat Markstrom 4-3 in Vancover on 11/29/18, 27 saves on 31 shots)
Tampa Bay
10/26/18: 3-2 Home Loss vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves on 31 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by: Shea Theodore (1), William Karlsson (PP, 3)
Nashville
10/30/18: 4-1 Road Loss vs Juuse Saros (23 saves on 24 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by Reilly Smith (PP, 3)
St. Louis (2 losses)
11/1/18: 5-3 Road Loss vs Jake Allen (31 saves on 34 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (2nd of season), Erik Haula (2), and Alex Tuch (PPG, 3)
11/16/18: 4-1 Home Loss vs Jake Allen (32 saves on 33 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by William Carrier (3)
Toronto
11/6/18: 3-1 Road Loss vs Frederik Andersen (36 saves on 37 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by: Cody Eakin (4)
Montreal (2 Losses: 1 regulation, 1 overtime)
11/10/18: 5-4 Road Loss vs Antti Niemi (34 saves on 38 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Brad Hunt (PP, 2), Jon Marchessault (8), Alex Tuch (4), William Karlsson (PP, 4)
12/22/18: 4-3 Home OT Loss vs Carey Price (23 saves on 26 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Brandon Pirri - 2 (2,3), Jon Marchessault (13)
Boston
11/11/18: 4-1 Road Loss vs Jaroslav Halak (37 saves on 38 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by Cody Eakin (5)
Calgary
11/19/18: 7-2 Road Loss vs David Rittich (20 saves on 22 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Nick Holden (3), Max Pacioretty (PP, 4)
(Beat Rittich Four Days Later)
Edmonton
12/1/18: 2-1 Road Loss Vs Mikko Koskinen (31 saves on 32 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by William Karlsson (9)
(Beat Cam Talbot 6-3 on 11/18/18)
Los Angeles (2 Losses: 1 regulation, 1 overtime)
12/8/18: 5-1 Road Loss vs Jonathan Quick (29 saves on 30 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by Oscar Lindberg (1)
12/23/18: 4-3 OT Home Loss vs Calvin Peterson (22 saves on 25 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Tomas Nosek (4), Reilly Smith (8), and Ryan Reaves (PP, 7)
(Beat Quick on 12/29/18 and Jack Campbell on 1/1/19, one home and one road game)
Columbus
12/17/18: 1-0 Road Loss vs Sergei Bobrovsky (28 save shut out)
No VGK Goals
San Jose
1/10/19: 3-2 Home Loss vs Martin Jones (36 saves on 38 shots, was Jones’ birthday)
VGK Goals Scored by: Tomas Nosek (6), Jon Merrill (1)
(Beat Aaron Dell 6-0 on 11/24/18, 30 saves on 36 shots)
Winnipeg
1/15/19: 4-1 Road Loss vs Laurent Brossoit (43 saves on 44 shots)
VGK Goal Scored by: Brandon Pirri (8)
Minnesota
1/21/19: 4-2 Home Loss vs Devan Dubnyk (30 saves on 32 shots)
VGK Goals Scored by Alex Tuch (PP, 16), Max Pacioretty (14)
(Beat Dubnyk 2-1 on 10/6/18, 41 saves on 42 shots)
Upon a review of their losses and the opposition, it is easy to see the long list of solid goaltending that has been successful against the Golden Knights. Good goaltenders will take games over and singlehandedly win games for their respective teams. On the list, the top goaltenders are Jonathan Quick, Braden Holtby, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Carey Price. In the next tier are goalies that were hot coming into their games(s) against Vegas in Jake Allen, Laurent Brossoit, Frederik Anderson, and David Rittich. On multiple occasions, the Golden Knights have either already beaten or avenged a loss against the quality goaltenders that have beaten them. Additionally, in their wins, the Golden Knights have defeated the following upper echelon goaltenders: John Gibson (2019 Anaheim Ducks All-Star), Corey Crawford (Multi-Stanley Cup Winner for Chicago), and Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers future Hall-of-Famer).
Vegas’ losses are impossible to nail down to one diagnosis. In one game, there could be defensive lapses that allow goals at an inopportune time. Their next loss could be due to being outworked on the forecheck. A few losses later could be chalked up to a bad night in goal for Vegas. Another loss could have come due to bad shot selection or a poor power play. Essentially, the Vegas Golden Knights are a good hockey team, more accurately put, one of the elite in the Western Conference. Battling through injuries to their current record of 29-18-4 and third place in the Pacific shows the strength of the Golden Knights. The NHL is a league of parity, where teams are closer in skill than most other sports. In the NHL there are no super teams, no Golden State Warriors. Night in, night out, it is a battle between two (usually) talented teams in a game that could feasibly go either way. Vegas ends up on the better end of the majority of their games, while pushing the play. Looking deeper into their games, it is easy to see that quality of play. Some games won’t go your way over the course of an 82-game season. For the Vegas Golden Knights, it is imperative to learn from a loss, clean up the mistakes, and come back the strong team that finished their first season a mere three wins from a Stanley Cup Championship.
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(Stats and advanced metrics provided by hockey-reference.com and Natural Stat Trick)
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