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Jets vs Preds Round 2

January 17, 2019, 11:08 AM ET [15 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Tonight the Jets and the Predators face off against each other in Nashville in their second meeting of the season. In the first meeting the Predators came out with a vengeance beating the Jets 3-0 in a make-up like game for the game 7 the two played last spring. In that game the Jets won in Nashville to move on to the Western Conference final but were far too beat up to withstand the pace and tenacity of the Vegas Golden Knights.

It's no secret that the Jets weathered the pace and tenacity of the Golden Knights on Tuesday for a 4-1 win despite being outshot and and in some aspects outplayed in several key areas of the ice. It's a guess as to what team shows up in the Jets uniforms tonight as it is most nights for them when they play the NHL's top talent. In this case they not only do the Jets play a top team and Stanley Cup contender but their fiercest division rival.

The Jets are currently 2 points ahead of the Preds with 62 in two less games played 46-48. They have scored 8 more goals than Nashville with 160 but have allowed 5 more goals against at 129. The Jets are 6-4 in their last 10 games while Nashville is 6-2-2. It does not have to be emphasized how important this game will mean to the teams and the fans. Some would liken it to a statement game.

If the Jets feel that way, that this game makes a statement, then what are they going to say against the Preds or try to say?

Where the real disparity is coming between the two, using the great data that Sean Tierney provides is in shot rates and pace. The Preds are playing a more well-rounded game compared to the Jets and while the recent trends seem to be similar between the two teams it's the rolling cross differential that seems to be hurting Winnipeg right now. The are on a bit of a nose dive and with both Ehlers and Byfuglien out for an extended period that's probably not a surprise.


Team WPG NASH

PDO Dull Lucky
Shot Share good good+
Corsi Share 1.43 3.54
Pace 98.53 98.02
xG Pace 4.44 4.38

Expectations
GF% vsxGF% Over-performing(moderately) vs Good (but above the over perform line)

So what does this all mean? Nashville is playing a more complete game all around and they are a damn good team that went through a bit of malaise while the Jets had a decent run. Without looking at schedules I would suspect Nashville had a bit of a run against some better competition while the Jets have not had to play too many top teams. I'm likely wrong here but that's what my old memory says.

The Preds of put Josi and Subban together recently and the pairing seems to have taken off and with the skill of that unit plus the others on defense this is a game, like Vegas, that the Jets are going to have to watch the transition attack and counter attack. It's something they have struggled with and at times been caught on too long or shifting at in opportune times.

The Jets will continue to roll with their top pair of Morrissey Trouba while Morrow and Niku fill the spots of insured Byfuglien and day-to-day Chiarot. Schilling has been called up from the Moose in the event of another injury on the blue line. Anyone want to discuss the forwards?

This is a game where Paul Maurice likely bets the level of physicality will be similar to the last meeting. Don't expect Nic Petan to enter the fray when Brendan Lemieux can be there. For the Jets though this game is about managing the penalty box after the parade they had to it vs Vegas. Keep the advantage away from them and control the offensive zone longer.

One concern is how the Jets manage adversity in their own zone. Too often they will simply try to get the puck out anyway they can but the smarter teams will simply regroup and counter attack. The Jets have a process to exit that seems to be prey to a good checking system and if the pass is not excited all hell breaks loose. They need to support the puck carrier and not watch the play hoping it gets out being static. By my eye-test watching games it appears an aggressively skating team can really make a mess of things for certain forwards exiting the zone and I'm betting the Preds try this tactic on home ice.

This one matters not only for the player but the psyche of the fan base as there's some bragging rights here and the next two games against Nashville are in Winnipeg. Furthermore a win would give the Jets a 4 point lead, two games in hand and top spot in the West. Not bad for a team that really hasn't shown a stretch of dominant play like they did last year.

It's believe Hellebuyck starts tonight and he probably should.
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