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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Winnipeg Jets
1. An elite 5v5 matchup
Early in the season, the Flames dealt with some concerning defensive issues while the Jets were getting caved in at 5v5 even when the wins were there. To say both teams have sorted out their problems since would be an understatement.
The Flames rank 9th in chances for/60 and 1st in chances against/60 over the last 10 games. This while controlling nearly 57% of the 5v5 shot attempts. They've dominated teams.
The Jets rank 7th in chances for/60 and 9th in chances against/60 over that same period. Their possession numbers haven't been quite as impressive (51.5 CF%) but are still good nonetheless.
Both teams look like they're capable of making a deep playoff run so it'll be fun to watch them duke it out at 5v5.
2. Stay out of the box
If there is a team you want to be disciplined against, it is the Jets.
On a per 60 basis, they rank 1st in shot attempts (123.73), 1st in shots on goal (74.8), 1st in goals (11.88), 2nd in scoring chances (62.21), and 2nd in high-danger chances (30.76). They are as dynamic as anyone, which is hardly surprising given the personnel they can trot out. It'll be hard for the Flames to win this game if they take more than two or three penalties.
3. Another good spot for the top line
In my game preview, I talked about how Vegas' 2nd line is bad defensively and could be exploited. Calgary's top line spent more against that unit than any other and we saw how that worked out. Tonight they should see a good dose of Winnipeg's 2nd, which also looks to be a favorable matchup.
In ~75 minutes together, the Kyle Connor - Bryan Little - Patrik Laine trio has controlled just 41% of the shot attempts and 43% of the scoring chances. Since the beginning of last season, Connor and Laine are the two worst shot suppressing forwards on the roster.
If the shots are there, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm definitely have the talent to capitalize.
4. Offense from the defense
Travis Hamonic (5th), Mark Giordano (10th), Jacob Trouba (21st), Tyler Myers (33rd), Juuso Valimaki (46th) and Dustin Byfuglien (49th) all rank inside the top-50 in terms of shot attempts per 60 minutes. Both teams will need their forwards to backcheck hard and watch for trailers because there are a plethora of defenders who like to join the play and get involved offensively.
5. Big Save Dave
David Rittich is the story of the season for the Flames. Among 44 eligible goaltenders, he ranks 3rd with a remarkable .931 save percentage. He has been fantastic almost every night.
With that said, he hasn't faced the stiffest of competition yet. Buffalo and Montreal are the only opponents who've won more games than they've lost and neither is a legitimate Cup contender or overflowing with high-end talent.
Tonight's draw against Winnipeg is very clearly the most difficult game of the year. It'll be interesting to see how he responds.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett
Dillon Dube - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Winnipeg (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Nik Ehlers - Mark Scheifele - Blake Wheeler
Kyle Connor - Bryan Little - Patrik Laine
Andrew Copp - Adam Lowry - Brandon Tanev
Nic Petan - Jack Roslovic - Mathieu Perreault
Josh Morrissey - Jacob Trouba
Ben Chiarot - Dustin Byfuglien
Joe Morrow - Tyler Myers
Connor Hellebuyck
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on Sportsnet.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent posts:
Five observations from a dominant performance vs the Golden Knights
On strong 5v5 numbers, Czarnik's role, and Hanifin's penalty killing
On penalty killing prowess, Lindholm’s scoring, and goaltending
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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