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Game Day! A Canuck Wanders Into Brooklyn... What to Expect. By Eklund

November 13, 2018, 10:50 AM ET [27 Comments]
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A week ago, the Islanders and Canucks were both sitting atop their divisions much to the surprise of well…everyone… Today, the Canucks are still clinging to a small lead in the Pacific, but the Isles find themselves a point out of a playoff spot after dropping both games of a recent Florida trip…In the NHL’s East a few wins or a few losses and the world looks very different.

Tonight the Isles are back facing the Canucks at home where NY has lost only a single game in regulation all season.

Some Ek’s Factors for NYI v. VAN.

You might want to get the first goal tonight…
The Canucks are 5-1-1 when scoring first this season and the Isles are 7-1-2.
But in case you don’t score first…
The Canucks are 5-6-1 not so bad……HOWEVER, the Isles are 1-5-0.

At least be leading after two….
When trailing after two periods the Islanders are 0-5-0

But those stats make some sense right?…this next one, not so much…

It is ALWAYS better to outshoot your opponent right?

The Canucks are 4-0-1 when outshooting their foe, however Islanders are 8-2-2 when they are OUT SHOT by their opponents and 0-3-0 when they outshoot their opponents….as they did in the Florida games…

So the Isles should just let the other teams take as many shots as they want to, right? Maybe not.

Actually…

It isn’t all that uncommon for teams to have better records when they are outshot…What this tells you about the Islanders is A LOT.. and maybe a bit of a trend that needs to be looked at before things get out of hand… In the first 14 games the Islanders only outshot their opponents once, but went 8-4-2 with a +10 goal differential.

Outshooting an opponent can sometimes mean you are taking to many chances to try and create goals. And your shot selection isn’t the greatest and bad shots with you or your team out of position can lead to high quality breaks against you…which can lead to high quality shots…and goals.

The Islanders early success was due in large part to great goaltending and as good as both keepers were playing the Isles were limiting the high quality chances by playing a more sound overall game.

I fully expect that Trotz is all over this one, because again this reminds me so much of covering the early 2000’s Predators teams…Those teams always looked out-matched, and they would get beaten…but barely more than twice-in-a-row. Avoiding extended streaks is the key to being in the race..

Speaking of goal differential…
The Canucks are actually a -3 and leading the Pacific…

“Not so” Special Teams…
Neither team is very special here at all…All the power plays and short handed stats for both sides are middle of the pack, and since these teams are playing out-of-conference and they are 25th and 26th in taking penalties I wouldn’t expect much animosity…so tonight won’t likely be decided on the power play….The only slight advantage I could find here is the Isles are second in the NHL with 4 shorthanded goals and first in the NHL having given up no shorties themselves.


In goal…release the Greiss!

I have yet to hear who is going for the Isles tonight, but against the Canucks, who have some very skilled and fast young players, this is prime Greiss time.. I see Greiss as the guy when you need quick side to side movement and Lehner as the guy when you need strong positional play…a HUGE over-simplification, but there it is… I would play Lehner on Thursday when the Rangers cross the Brooklyn Bridge..

Final Thoughts...for now.

This will be an entertaining game to say the least and if you are thinking of heading to the Barclay I would seriously consider it because Elias Pettersson is coming to NY for the first time. Pettersson is almost a gimme for rookie of the year and easily the most talented Swedish forward since Peter Forsberg. He is worth the price of admission on his own and even worth battling the Long Island Expressway traffic in my opinion…He is going to be up there with McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon in a very short period of time.

My Pick… The Isles catch a Canucks team after playing in MSG last night and being 3,000 miles from home.(although they would probably calculate that as 25 Million Kilometers...) I think the Isles win this one, but goals will be scored...5-3
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