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The Senators have finished their first five games of the season with a record of 2-2-1. They don’t look like a particularly good team, but they’ve at least been showing signs of life. Five games is obviously an incredibly small sample, but I wanted to look at various individual and team stats from these games and see if they mean anything later on.
Some stats will be meaningless noise, but others will be more indicative of a players skill level or the team’s skill level. There are even more stats I could have talked about in this post, but here are 12 of the most interesting ones I could find:
PP%: 31.3%
The Senators powerplay was 27th in the league last year at an abysmal 16.6% rate. The Penguins had the best unit at 26.2%, so obviously Ottawa won’t be able to sustain anything above 30%. Nevertheless, it’s nice to see a powerplay that has actually been able to bury their chances. They haven’t always looked extremely efficient, but they’re scoring goals.
High-danger CF per 60 on the PP: 33.52
One reason why the powerplay has been so successful is that they have done a great job of getting high-danger shot attempts. All of their regular corsi, fenwick, and expected goals numbers on the man advantage are below-average, but they have made up for that by ranking 4th in high-danger attempts per 60. What does that mean though? It means that the Senators haven’t been peppering the opposing goaltenders with shots on the powerplay but when they are getting chances, they have been quality scoring chances. I’d still like to see more attempts overall, but it’s hard not to like all of the quality chances that they have been getting.
Max Lajoie shots: 15 (22 shot attempts)
Lajoie’s offensive game has been quite surprising. His 15 shots ranks tied for 12th amongst defensemen, and he has seven attempts that have missed the net as well. Pure shot numbers aren’t always indicative of how good a player is, but more often than not it is. Here are the top-20 defensemen from last season in shots (with Erik Karlsson being 21st):
It seems like with the exception of Justin Faulk, these are all top-pairing, elite defensemen. If Lajoie can keep it up, he’ll be in very good company.
Zack Smith CF%: 55.80%
This stat can be paired with Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone as well, as the three of them have been by far the Senators most dominant line. It’s not surprising since Stone and Tkachuk have always been good possession players. Smith’s corsi is funny to look at considering that he was on waivers just a few weeks ago and now he is part of a successful line. He isn’t a key part of the team moving forward, but I like that he has gotten off to a good start. He should just have to pay for Stone’s dinner every single night, that’s all.
Team CF%: 42.89%
This doesn’t surprise me at all because we knew the Senators weren’t going to be a good team this season. They lost their most impactful player in Erik Karlsson, and even with him, they were still a dreadful possession team. I feel like this will go up a bit into the 45-47% range, because even last years team was able to get to 47.20%.
Team xGF%: 45.53%
Their expected goal percentage looks a bit better than corsi does, but it’s still not great. As with their corsi, I’d be shocked if they ended up being anywhere close to league average, but that’s okay in a season like this.
Brady Tkachuk individual high-danger attempts: 9 (21st in the league)
I mentioned how Ottawa’s powerplay has been good at getting high-danger scoring chances, and Tkachuk is a big reason why. He’s played just three games and he has averaged three high-danger shot attempts per game. With nine of those attempts so far, he’s 21st in the league and if he had played in the first two games, he’d be on pace to be tied for second with 15. It’s hard to expect that kind of production to continue, but the underlying numbers for Tkachuk are very encouraging.
Alex Formenton CF%: 30.26%
It has only been four games for Formenton, but no player can play in the league with a 30% corsi. He’s on the IR now and we might not get to see him in game action for another few weeks, but once he's healthy he could be sent back to Junior anyway. He has tremendous speed, but he can’t be hemmed in his own zone like he has.
Team SV%: .871%
This is what happens when you roll with the current versions of Craig Anderson and Mike Condon. They will be better than what they have shown, but it’s certainly not pretty. I have almost no confidence in either of them.
Colin White SCF%: 22.73%
I noted on Saturday how White has four points through five games so far and that he might be able to contribute offensively for this team. I think he can, but man, his possession numbers are dreadful. The number above is his scoring chance for percentage, which means that the other team is getting almost four scoring chances for every one that the Senators are getting with him on the ice. I really hope that is noise and means nothing.
Dylan DeMelo CF% relative: +7.29%
DeMelo has been very impressive, and it obviously helps to play with Thomas Chabot. His underlying stats in San Jose were always impressive for a third pairing defenseman, and he’s risen to the occasion by seeing a bump in ice-time. On a poor possession team like Ottawa, it shouldn’t be hard for him to have a very high relative corsi.
Chris Tierney points: 7
Tierney’s career high in points came last year with 40. I don’t expect him to get more than 30-35, but perhaps he can actually set a new high again? He’s been quite involved in the offense, and on a bad team like this, he might end up being more relied upon than he ever was in San Jose.
There are lots of other things that are interesting too such as Thomas Chabot’s 8 points, but I have to cut it off at some point. I’ll have to keep an eye on these stats throughout the season to see if they stay on the same course or diverge.
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