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Finding the Right Linemate for Stamkos and Kucherov

September 27, 2018, 8:36 AM ET [5 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Chemistry in hockey comes in various forms. Player chemistry can be instantaneous, like an electric shock. It can crackle and then burst, like popcorn in a microwave. Or it can thud, like a bad comedy or overwrought writing. A hockey line can appear, thrive, and have a fulfilling run. And then it can die.

When the Lightning traded Vladislav Namestikov to the Rangers, they dealt a player who comported himself well as the third wheel in the Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos marriage. That line played over 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time together, and was prolific in that span, registering 29 goals. It also excelled in controlling possession, posting a +62 Corsi plus/minus during that time.

Obtaining J.T. Miller was the object of that trade, and when coach Jon Cooper replaced Namestikov with Miller on the first line, the chemistry was immediate. Miller scored 10 goals in 19 games. The best aspects of Miller’s game were on display: his finishing ability in tight spaces, his brute physicality, and his command when transporting the puck and attacking the net. Miller’s shooting percentage was 22.2 percent in this stretch of time. He was living a charmed life.

Then the postseason arrived and things soured. Miller’s worst qualities appeared, leaving his partners helpless. Miller stopped scoring and flubbed important opportunities. He took stupid penalties and was not effective on defense. He seemed apathetic in board battles. The first line stalled, and ultimately Miller was relegated to the third line. Before Steve Yzerman stepped down as GM, he gave Miller the thing the Rangers were terrified to provide him: price and term.

Miller is not going anywhere, and was a roaring success with Stamkos and Kucherov in his first stint—but is he the right fit for their line? Miller teases us with glimpses of a power forward who can dominate a sequence. But I think the Lightning’s goal is to find a third player who can complement Kucherov and Stamkos and still keep their line humming in the playoffs. Miller’s track record suggests he is consistently undependable come postseason. The Lightning need a Plan B if Miller’s efficacy dwindles like it did last year. Below are three suggestions.

Yanni Gourde: Gourde might not be as skilled as Miller, but I like this choice because Gourde is quick and always gives maximum effort. On a line with Kucherov and Stamkos, the third player needs to be comfortable letting the other two lead entries and dominate the puck. Goude is comfortable retrieving shot attempts and zipping back in transition defense. He also has shown an aptitude for finishing chances around the paint. Ultimately, Gourde’s speed stretches the defense on the rush and gives Kucherov and Stamkos a better chance at retaining possession on retrievals after the initial shot attempt. More versatility is an unalloyed good.

Tyler Johnson: What if Kucherov and Stamkos never had to do any heavy lifting? Could Johnson just fulfill the job of a logistics company? He carries the puck from Point A to Point B, which shrinks the responsibilities for Kucherov and Stamkos to find a quiet space and a nice shooting lane while working off the puck.

Kucherov excels at beating defensemen one-on-one on transition opportunities, but Johnson would allow Stamkos, whose puck-handling skills have eroded, to become a spot-up shooter. Last year, Stamkos tried to refashion himself as more of a playmaker, but with Johnson in charge of puck conveyance, maybe Stamkos belts more shots at net this season because he is unbound.

Johnson’s scoring ability is diminishing. He is still a capable playmaker, and for the Lightning to access his value as he ages past his prime, his passing and speed are his strengths that will sustain. Johnson can rocket past opponents on the outside and easily scramble opponents’ transition defense by pushing them on their heels. If he has Kucherov and Stamkos diving into pockets in the seams, Johnson can drop the puck onto their blades.

Ondrej Palat: When Miller was demoted in the playoffs, Palat replaced him with Stamkos and Kucherov. The three spent 40 minutes of 5v5 ice time together, and the numbers are more muted than one might think (and Palat had only played a measly 10 minutes with those two in the regular season). When Kucherov and Stamkos played with Miller, they finished with a +11 Corsi plus/minus. With Palat it was a -2. With Palat on their wing, Kucherov and Stamkos scored two goals together and allowed one.

Granted, when Palat joined Kucherov and Stamkos it was against the Capitals, and the amount of games he played on the line is relatively small—but still, they may indicate that Palat is not truly the best fit for this line anyway. Brayden Point, Palat, and Johnson were Tampa Bay’s most productive trio in the playoffs and had the best goal plus/minus during the regular season. With Point and Johnson, Palat wields influence by staying over the top and beneath the attacking points. With Kucherov and Stamkos, Palat’s function is different because his linemates are slower.

The Lightning have a band of talented complementary forwards who can enhance the first line. But hockey chemistry is trial and error, and Tampa Bay has a full season of games to put their subjects to the test.
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