Vegas dropped a 5-3 pre-season decision to Colorado, but nobody was talking about that after it was announced Shea Theodore inked a seven-year, $36.4 million dollar contract ($5.2 million AAV). The defenseman was also given a five-team No Trade Clause in the sixth and seventh years of the contract.
Theodore's agreement is in line with other recent long-term contracts for top-four defensemen coming off entry-level deals.
• Damon Severson, coming off a 31-point, 20:21 ATOI season, signed a six-year, $25 million dollar contract ($4.17 million Annual Average Value) in September 2017.
• Brett Pesce, coming off a 20-point, 21:12 ATOI season, signed a six-year, $24.15 million dollar contract ($4.025 million AAV) in August 2017.
• Colton Parayko, coming off a 35-point, 21:12 ATOI season, signed a five-year, $27.5 million dollar contract ($5.5 million AAV) in July 2017.
• Michael Matheson, coming off a 17-point, 21:03 ATOI season, signed an eight-year, $39 million dollar contract ($4.875 million AAV) in October 2017.
• Brady Skjei, coming off a 25-point, 21:02 ATOI season, signed a six-year, $31.5 million dollar contract ($5.25 million AAV) in July 2018.
• Noah Hanifin, coming off a 32-point, 18:52 season, signed a six-year, $29.7 million dollar contract ($4.95 million AAV) in August 2018.
Theodore registered 29 points and averaged 20:21 a game last year. If anything, with so many examples to follow, it's a wonder why this deal took so long to finalize.
This contract also leaves Vegas plenty of flexibility next summer to sign UFA Nate Schmidt and RFAs William Karlsson and Alex Tuch. There's also space for KHL star Nikita Gusev.
Right now, the Golden Knights have committed $56.3 million dollars to eight forwards (not counting David Clarkson), five defensemen, and one goalie. Assuming a $4.5 million dollar bump in the salary cap -- mirroring the increase from 2017-18 to 2018-19 -- Vegas will have $27.7 million dollars to add five forwards, three defensemen, and a back-up netminder.
Here's a projected 2019-20 salary outlay:
View post on imgur.com
I wrote about how I arrived at Karlsson, Tuch, Gusev, and Schmidt's possible dollar figures
here:
Let's say [William Karlsson] follows his breakout 43-goal campaign last season with another 30+. He will be a UFA after 2019-20, so there will be some pressure to lock him up. Combining a now-proven goalscoring prowess with his defensive acumen, positional value, and age, and we're talking about an $8-10 million AAV first-line center. As a comp, let's use Evgeny Kuznetsov, who signed an eight-year, $62.4 million dollar extension ($7.8 million AAV) in July 2017. Like Karlsson, Kuznetsov was coming off a bridge contract and was a RFA. Let's give Karlsson a six-year, $51 million dollar extension ($8.5 million AAV).
Now Nate Schmidt. Let's assume that the 27-year-old comes back from his suspension without missing a beat and continues to play a well-rounded, top-pairing game. He's now a UFA. The underrated Dmitry Orlov -- before his UFA campaign, he signed a six-year, $30.6 million dollar contract ($5.1 million AAV) in June 2017 -- may present a best-case scenario comp for Vegas. Let's give Schmidt a five-year, $25 million dollar extension ($5 million AAV).
How about Nikita Gusev? If the sought-after KHL winger wants to skate in Las Vegas, Evgeni Dadonov's three-year, $12 million dollar ($4 million AAV) and Vadim Shipachyov's two-year, $9 million dollar ($4.5 million AAV) agreements from the summer of 2017 provide, ironically, a solid template. Let's give Gusev a three-year, $15 million dollar contract ($5 million AAV).
Finally, Tuch. Coming off his entry-level deal, the winger won't be arbitration-eligible, but he'll still be in line for a significant raise. If he scores 20+ in 2018-19, Ondrej Kase's three-year, $7.8 million dollar agreement ($2.6 million AAV) from August 2018 will probably be raised in negotiations. Let's give Tuch a three-year, $9 million dollar bridge deal ($3 million AAV).
Bischoff is also an RFA after this season, coming off his entry-level contract. In his case, I'm projecting that he establishes himself as a viable bottom-pairing defenseman. I used Robert Hagg's two-year, $2.3 million dollar contract ($1.15 million AAV), signed this past summer, as a comp.
Speaking of Bischoff, in George McPhee's post-Theodore signing press conference, the general manager confirmed that the organization still plans on rolling with eight defensemen to start the season.
Currently, seven defensemen (Theodore, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Deryk Engelland, Nick Holden, Jon Merrill, and Brad Hunt) are assured roster spots.
"Someone will have to go," said McPhee, referring to Bischoff or Erik Brannstrom.
Both sides of the Bischoff/Brannstrom coin deserve a look.
On one hand, Bischoff hasn't hurt the Golden Knights defensively in the pre-season like Brannstrom has at times. Besides being safer defensively, Bischoff has shown plenty of puck-moving acumen too. He may not be able to take over a shift like Brannstrom can, but he promises to be a plus on both sides of the puck.
Also, Brannstrom, in his first year in North America, could benefit from AHL seasoning. At 24, Bischoff wouldn't necessarily gain much from playing once again for the Wolves.
Remember also that we're talking about the eighth defenseman slot. Bischoff sitting isn't as much of a negative as wasting the still-developing Swede on the pine.
In addition, Bischoff is in the last season of his entry-level contract, whereas Brannstrom has three years to go. So there's more of an impetus to see what Bischoff can offer at the highest level.
Finally, Bischoff, frankly, has outperformed Brannstrom this pre-season. He hasn't enjoyed Brannstrom's highs, but he hasn't suffered the 19-year-old's lows either. On pure merit, up to this point, I think Bischoff has earned a spot on the opening night roster.
On pure potential, however, Brannstrom is still intriguing.
Before the Theodore signing, I spoke with a scout who told me he'd start the season with Brannstrom over Bischoff, if he had to choose. He cited the team's lack of offense from the blueline in the absence of Schmidt and Theodore. He thought Brannstrom's high-end offensive ability would outweigh the defensive miscues.
Obviously, the Theodore signing changes the team's needs, but Brannstrom could still fill Schmidt's quarterback role on the power play. Schmidt's power play unit this year should see Erik Haula net front, Max Pacioretty in the high slot, Paul Stastny along the wall, and Colin Miller as the triggerman. If not Brannstrom, Hunt is probably the most qualified to take on these minutes.
I think we can agree that if Brannstrom is destined to sit in Vegas, he's better served getting professional seasoning in Chicago. But if Brannstrom can carve out a regular role on the big club, his ceiling is higher than Bischoff, Hunt, or Merrill's.
The Golden Knights, however, will be careful about eating into the first year of Brannstrom's entry-level contract. The 19-year-old's agreement
can still slide -- meaning the first year of his entry-level contract can officially start next year -- unless he plays 10+ NHL games. If he plays 10+ NHL contests, then the clock on his deal will start ticking.
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