The Winnipeg Jets play their first preseason game tonight at Bell MTS Centre against the Minnesota Wild. As for the roster, we'll find out later today what it looks like and give some thoughts on what we see after the game. Right now though, it's time to go through projected opening day roster, line by line and pair by pair.

The Top Line

Connor Scheifele and Wheeler combined for 30 goals at 5 vs 5 play last year. As a PP unit they had 15 goals and only allowed 3 against them. In total they had 48 goals as a unit and only allowed 27 against them in total of 725 minutes over 54 games last season.

They had a bit of a PDO bump at 102.18 total in all situations but as a top line on the second best team by points one would expect to see that. The fact is at a total of nearly 13 million in total salary their production is a bargain by NHL standards.

Want to get a bit deeper?

When the trio is on the ice in all situations they are expected to outscore their opposition 63.11% of the time. At 5vs5 that number is 54.73% it's over 80% on the PP.

I'll spare you anything else because goals are fun and everyone wants moar goals.

Individually though who is pushing that play?

At 5 vs 5 Scheifele and Wheeler are leaders both above 54% while Wheeler and Connor are at 52% for xGF%. When the criteria is set to any type of game situation the gap between the three changes, and significantly.

Connor 60.91% xGF
Scheifele 58.62% xGF
Wheeler 56.85% xGF

So where does this switch happen? The Power Play has a big effect with Connor leading the trio in xGF% and thus boosting him above.

Now Wheeler's points on the PP are well known due to some great investigative work after his recent contract extension by Tyler Dellow. He's at 9.25 pts/60 while Scheifele and Connor are at 5.18 and 3.27 respectively. Comparatively the three looked like this in 2016-17:

Wheeler 7.26
Scheifele 4.12
Connor 3.39

So what is to come this season?

Well first thing to consider is the PP is likely not going to take jump from 18.2% and 18th overall to 23.4% and 5th overall. Jumping 5% again is not likely as that would put the Jets 28.4% and ahead of last year's leader the Penguins who had a 26.2% PP.

The points will come for the trio but expecting more on the PP from Wheeler seems insane but with Scheifele missing 22 games he is due for a rise in production if he stays healthy. This is not unlikely but could an increase in production happen for Connor too? Is he more than his 31 goals and 26 assists? He could be but that would depend on his usage and the health of Scheifele as they are two of a trio that has to produce for the Jets.

For most it's not a question of production for them as much as who produces and where the points come from? Scheifele missed 6 weeks of hockey form December 28th to February 8th and that certainly affected the roster's output but he had 8 of his 23 goals after his return and his production in the playoffs was phenomenal. At his prime age this could be the year that 55 leads in many categories for the Jets but for this line to be as dangerous as it was last year Wheeler and Connor need to contribute too.

They will but is Wheeler at 91 points again? Is Connor a 31 goal scorer again or is he better than that?

Last year the trio combined for 77 goals and 131 assists for a total of 208 points. Basically prime Gretzky and a big jump from the 161 of 2016-17. They may not increase on the total by much but they might move the numbers around between them. Should the PP stay top 5 in the league and Wheeler does not regress much off his production there last season and Scheifele stays healthy for the season they could add another 20 points to that total, maybe more.

That's what needs to happen as with the depth the Jets have they are no longer a one trick pony of offense and that's what matters most to playing them, at least from the Jets perspective. Spread the opposition thin and make them have to share your depth. It starts with the top line and then need to lead the team in points and by example.

Let's set the total points over/under line at 212 and where do you go?

This line is an easy one to look at because there's no reason to break it apart or change it- it works. It only gets more complicated as you move down the roster but for good reasons not bad ones and that's a great statement on where the depth of this team is right now.

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