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Corey Perry has not cracked 20 goals since the 2015-2016 season.
Before then, dating back to the 2007-2008 season, his lowest total was 27, aside from a lockout-shortened 44 game season in which he scored 15.
During the past two seasons he has also posted uncharacteristically low shooting percentages:
2016-2017: 8.8%
2017-2018: 10.1%
10 percent isn’t a terrible number, but what’s even more concerning about Perry is that last year he posted his lowest shot totals since his rookie season (minus the lockout year) at 168. He’s usually in the 220 to 250 range.
Yet, the numbers are not all bad for Perry.
During the 2017 - 2018 season he posted a 53.86 CF% (corsi for percentage) and a 56.83 GF% (goals for percentage). He was also fourth on the team in P/60 (points per 60 minutes) at 2.28. He also did all this playing 11 fewer games than the previous season, yet coming within four points of his 2016-2017 total.
Your view of Perry’s game going forward will depend on which angle you take.
I think a big part of Perry’s problem can be linked to the Ducks’ power play numbers.
Perry’s Potential and the Ducks Power Play
Even at this point in his career, it’s unfair to assume that 33 years old puts Perry beyond having another 30+ goal or 60+ point season. It could certainly happen, and I think it’s safe to assume that his ability to crack those numbers will depend heavily on how much Perry shoots, which - in turn - depends a lot on the Ducks power play situation in the coming season.
In 2017-2018, Anaheim’s power play numbers were absolutely abysmal.
Here’s just a sample:
214 Power Play opportunities: Anaheim ranked 30th in the league (only Edmonton had fewer)
38 Power Play Goals: Tied for 29th (again, only Edmonton had fewer)
Throughout his career, Perry has consistently been in or near the 20s in terms of PPP (power play points). In 2017-2018, he only had 11. Only one non-lockout season, since his first year in the league, yielded lower PPP totals for Perry.
If you put Anaheim near the middle of the league in power play opportunities, I think Perry gets to 60 points.
So, as the Anaheim power play goes, so goes Perry’s point totals.
Corey Perry Projections for 2018 - 2019
Based on this, I think Perry will shoot more and get more power play time this year. Assuming he plays at least 75 games, this is where I would project him:
Goals: 26 (goal totals come up)
Assists: 35 (assists stay roughly the same - the Rackell factor)
Points: 61
PPG: 7
PPP: 19
Shots: 199 (13% shooting)
To hedge my bets:
If Anaheim doesn’t get more power play opportunities (and who knows why they were so few last year), it’s hard for me to see Perry getting back to 60 points and even harder to see him getting back to 20+ goals.
A lot of it will depend on the Ducks’ style of play and how many penalties they’re able to draw. If they are indeed committed to a faster, more speed-focused gameplan, I’d expect them to have more chances to get Perry on the ice and into high-danger scoring areas.
Should the gameplan stay static (wouldn’t surprise me), Ducks fans have to hope the law of averages catches up with Perry’s point totals and Anaheim’s power play chances.
Those numbers have nowhere to go but up.
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