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The LA Kings’ third line is a weirdly complex prediction, primarily for two reasons.
First, Adrian Kempe took a huge step forward in 2017-2018, putting up 37 points in 81 games. The former first-round draft pick benefited significantly from the absence of Jeff Carter, which meant Kempe played most of last season as the second line center with Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson. With Carter in the lineup, he’ll get bumped to the third line center position, where his production is harder to predict.
The second issue is who he will skate with.
Daily Faceoff projects Ilya Kovalchuk to slot in at the top left wing spot on the first line, which bumps Iafallo to the left on Kempe's third line. This leaves Trevor Lewis on the right wing, who I believe will, at some point in the season, lose his spot to Gabe Vilardi.
Third Forward Line
That gives us the following third “scoring” line:
Iafallo - Kempe - Vilardi
We can only speculate about Kempe’s production without Pearson and Toffoli, but he’s a former first-round pick, playing with one of the Kings’ top prospects in Vilardi (also a former first-round pick). The only reason I dislike Kempe’s chances to get back to 37 points is that he’ll have to carry along Iafallo for most of the season.
I still think Kempe cracks 30 points, along with a promising 50-60 game showing from Vilardi.
Kempe: 11 - 21 - 32 points
Vilardi: 16 - 14 - 30 points
Iafallo: 5 - 15 - 20 points
If Vilardi gets some time on the top line (which I’d love to see), I think we could see him steal some of Kovalchuk's point totals. Assuming the third line holds for most of the season, I think Vilardi at least leads that line in goals.
Third Defensive Pairing
First, the third defensive pairing for LA is highly subject to change. Right now it looks like some amalgamation of Derek Forbort, Paul LaDue and perhaps Daniel Brickley.
Forbort: 1 - 12 - 13 points
LaDue: 3 - 7 - 10 points
Brickley: 4 - 2 - 8 points
The only thing that intrigues me about LA’s third pairing is Brickley’s impact. The former Hobey Baker award candidate
has top-four potential, though is likely going to split time between the Reign and Kings if he plays in LA at all this year.
As it stands, our stat prediction has filled out as follows:
Kopitar: 24 - 52 - 76 pts
Brown: 19 - 39 - 58 pts
Doughty 11 - 45 - 56 pts
Carter: 26 - 29 - 55 pts
Kovalchuk: 24 - 29 - 53 pts
Toffoli: 25 - 18 - 43 pts
Pearson: 19 - 23 - 42 pts
Muzzin: 3 - 33 - 36 pts
Kempe: 11 - 21 - 32 pts
Vilardi: 16 - 14 - 30 pts
Martinez: 5 - 20 - 25 pts
Iafallo: 5 - 15 - 20 pts
Phaneuf: 4 - 17 - 21 pts
Forbort: 1 - 12 - 13 pts
LaDue: 3 - 7 - 10 pts
Brickley: 4 - 2 - 8 pts
To summarize, I think the Kings’ offense will come from a lot of different places as the team could easily have five or more 20-goal scorers. Kopitar won’t need to have another 90-point season because of the support he’ll get from the second and third line. It’s a lineup that should have the luxury of short shifts and plenty of secondary scoring, which should reduce the need for this type of thing:
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