As anyone who has read this column over the last few years has noticed, using comparables in gauging the expected salaries of players has most of the time been pretty accurate. Reading the landscape of other situations throughout the league is a good way of determining what the Toronto Maple Leafs will face going forward.
Nylander has expressed a desire to sign a long-term deal with Toronto, but the patient approach being adopted by GM Kyle Dubas likely means that they are trying to get the winger signed a number they think is a good value, otherwise the two sides could go the way of a bridge deal and push the decision on the 22-year-old’s long-term future off a couple years.
One way or another, the Nylander situation will be resolved in the next month or so, but bigger challenges lie ahead for Dubas in the form of extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and the impending free agent status of defenseman Jake Gardiner.
The Leafs are currently negotiating with Matthews on a long term deal and Marner seems comfortable with playing out his ELC and seeing what numbers he can put up next season playing on the wing with John Tavares.
Gardiner’s leverage on a new deal is increasing in spite of being the focal point of criticism for the Leafs Game 7 defensive collapse against Boston. The ballyhooed 2019 blueline free agent market has been whittled down considerably since July 1, with Ryan McDonagh, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Drew Doughty re-signing with their current clubs and the got smaller on Tuesday with the Nashville Predators signing of Ryan Ellis to an eight year, $50 Million contract.
Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson will be the prize of next summer’s market (even if he is traded by the Sens before or during next season), but with so many names now unavailable, Gardiner is likely to get a great deal of interest from team looking for a offensive defenseman.
Ellis will make $6.25 Million AAV on his new deal after scoring 32 points in 2016-17 and 32 points in 44 games last season.
With only Vegas blueliner Nate Schmidt as the only realistic option for teams looking for a puck rusher and after scoring 95 points the last two seasons, if Gardiner puts up another 50+ point, his price tag could reach $6.5 to 7 Million per season, something that Toronto will not be able to afford with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares on the books in 2019.
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