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15th: Aaron Luchuk, C/LW, Belleville, 21
Luchuk is an interesting case, because a lot of fans are overrating how good of a prospect he is, but at the same time, the Senators did a great job to take a gamble on this guy. I can’t wait to see how he does in his first professional season, but at the same time I also know that a lot of over-agers in the CHL who come out of nowhere in their final season have flamed out pretty quickly afterwards.
He was phenomenal last year as he lead the OHL in scoring with 115 points in 68 games split between Windsor and Barrie. His previous two seasons before that were alright but nothing spectacular, as he posted 60 and 53 points respectively in 68 games each year. It’s important to think of the context too, because those two seasons were after he was eligible to be drafted, so it’s only his overage season that stands out.
Looking back at previous OHL point leaders, there are some stars, but also some busts as well:
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Macoy Erkamps wasn’t quite as good as Luchuk was in his overage season, but he was sort of in a similar situation by being unspectacular for most of his junior career, then amazing in his final season. Erkamps hasn’t really established himself as a legitimate prospect, but I’m hoping that Luchuk will be able to build on his success. No, he isn’t going to be making the Senators roster and probably won’t be playing in the NHL next year, but he’s a compelling test case.
14th: Jonathan Gruden, C, Miami University, 18
Like I said at the time, I was quite pleased with the Gruden pick in the draft. He actually compared quite well to Colin White in his draft year, yet the Senators were able to snag him in the 4th round. Obviously he was playing on a team with some elite talent and his ceiling doesn’t seem to be at the same level as someone like White, but I can’t help but be intrigued by his point production in the USHL and USDP.
His possession and zone entry/exit numbers from last season (in a small sample) are quite encouraging, and he seems like fantastic value for a 4th rounder:
13th: Max Lajoie, D, Belleville, 21
Lajoie might be a bit of a forgotten prospect right now just because he had a bit of a forgetful rookie season in the AHL. The defenseman had just one goal and 14 assists on the year, and it would’ve been easy to lose him in the shuffle amongst other Senators prospects that enjoyed quality seasons.
However, the 2016 5th rounder is still a very intriguing prospect. He’s touted as a solid two-way defenseman that is very mobile and a fantastic playmaker, which is exactly the type of player that can succeed in today’s NHL. He never lit up the WHL in scoring, but he was always a consistent 40 point player, so I could easily see him becoming a second pairing defenseman in the NHL. He still needs to take the next step in Belleville to accomplish that, but it seems like the tools are there.
As with all prospects who played in Belleville, it’s hard to properly evaluate if he was part of the problem or if he was hampered by a terrible team around him, but hopefully next season we’ll get a better look at if he is close to the NHL level or not.
12th: Marcus Hogberg, G, Belleville, 24
Hogberg’s stock has fallen a lot in the past year, but I’m still hanging on to him as a potentially good goaltender. He was jerked around between a terrible Belleville team and a terrible Brampton team, so I’m willing to cut him some slack for his .899 SV% in the AHL (he played in only 18 games, after all). His play in the ECHL was much better with a .915 SV% in 16 games, and he’s shown the ability to dominate in the SHL so I have no doubt in my mind that he’s at lest good enough for the AHL too.
With the Senators signing veteran goalie Mike McKenna, it looks like Hogberg is going to have to spend even more time in the ECHL, which is brutal for his development. I don’t want to hope for injuries, but at the same time, he’s almost 24 and he needs his reps with Belleville. This upcoming season is huge for him, because other prospects like Joey Daccord, Kevin Mandolese, and Jordan Hollett are on their way.
11th: Christian Jaros, D, Belleville, 22
Jaros is going to get as many looks as possible just because he is 6’4” and 210 lbs. That’s how the NHL works, because if you have size and can skate decently well, teams will be drooling over your potential. I don’t think Jaros is going to be a top defender or anything, but I do think he has a better chance of making the Senators than some other defense prospects. If he does make it, he’ll probably be more of a bottom pairing player, but those guys can still have value.
We know that he can use the body incredibly effectively, and it would be awesome to watch him on a daily basis:
Stay tuned for part four ranking the 6th-10th best prospects in the system!
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