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Similar Arbitration Cases to William Karlsson's |
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Sheng Peng
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There's never been an arbitration case like William Karlsson's...but there have been similar recent filings.
In 2009-10, 26-year-old Matt Moulson potted 30 goals after only one in the previous season. Before Moulson's breakout campaign on Long Island, he had posted six career NHL goals in Los Angeles. In 2014-15, 25-year-old Mike Hoffman netted 27 goals in Ottawa after just three the year before. Those three goals represented Hoffman's grand NHL total until his star-making turn.
The 25-year-old Karlsson is going from six goals to 43. This, after 18 goals over his three previous seasons.
Both Moulson and Hoffman were also left on the scrap heap. The Kings let Moulson walk as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2009. The Senators placed Hoffman on waivers in 2013.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets exposed Karlsson in the expansion draft.
Moulson settled before his hearing, signing a one-year, $2.45 million dollar pact. This figure represented over a 300% increase on his previous annual salary of $575,000. Hoffman didn't settle before, asking for $3.4 million, while the Sens countered at $1.75. Interestingly, the arbitrator did not split the difference, awarding the winger one-year, $2 million. This was just a 167% bump over Hoffman's previous $750K.
Karlsson is going to do a bit better.
Even the low of $3.5 million will constitute a 250% raise on Karlsson's $1 million last year. And while Hoffman's ruling -- clearly favoring Ottawa -- suggests hesitation to overcompensate a player for an out-of-the-blue performance, Karlsson will have a stronger case than both Hoffman and Moulson.
In 342 games, Hoffman has a total 12:42 Short-handed Time on Ice. In 628 contests, Moulson sits at 84:31 SH TOI. In contrast, just last season, Karlsson registered 135:31 SH TOI, killing more penalties in one year than Hoffman and Moulson have combined over their careers.
Karlsson's well-rounded game and importance to a Stanley Cup finalist -- his 18:43 Time on Ice Per Game led all Vegas forwards -- will support his argument. For what it's worth, Moulson was the fourth most-used New York forward in 2009-10. Hoffman was the seventh most-used Ottawa forward in 2014-15.
Also, 40-goal scorers don't come up for arbitration often. Most recently, John LeClair reaped a then-record $7 million in 2000, while Bill Guerin snagged 5.1 in 2001.
But what will hurt Karlsson is the unexpected nature of his season. Generous arbitration awards -- Pierre Turgeon (then-record $4.65 million in 1998), LeClair, Pavol Demitra ($6.5 million in 2003), Scott Niedermayer ($7 million in 2004), Shea Weber (current record $7.5 million in 2011) -- go to stars with an established track record.
Anyway, I think Karlsson gets around $5 million. He might fall a little short. And I believe the Golden Knights should lock him up long-term before Saturday's hearing, but that's another argument.
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