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Estimating Max Pacioretty’s Next Contract |
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Whether it’s with Montreal or elsewhere Max Pacioretty will be paid as he enters the last year of his contract, currently valued at $4.5 million cap hit.
The 6’2” LW scorer is coming off a value contract so he is most assuredly looking for a quality raise to make up a bit of that lost income over the last few years.
There are plenty of rumors out there that could be true, but typically they are proven false. Some of those around the Habs captain are that the Canadiens advised his camp they weren’t offering him a contract, which seems absolutely idiotic to leak to MTL media, which probably means its complete fabrication that this “leak” came from the Habs camp. It’s much more likely a rival team working to make headlines that put pressure on the Canadiens to make a move and shave off some value.
Other rumors were put out there by more reputable sources that the Habs had a draft day deal for the captain but it didn’t go further due to Pacioretty’s contract demands. The same talking heads were quick to extinguish that story later on, likely because their contacts were getting spanked for leaking that and likely pissing off everyone involved in the deal. So damage control was deployed to save face for all parties.
That latter rumor seems much more likely to have factual information in it rather than the former about a MTL insider leaking info that would do nothing more than hamstring Bergevin’s ability to gain top value for Pacioretty. It is literally asinine for a MTL reporter to write that, especially because it was quickly jumped upon and made the organization look foolish. I understand that some of the MTL media have made it their job to destroy the franchise and their players at every and any level they can, but if I was in charge of press passes and such for guys to come to the Bell for press matters I would consider revoking the passes of those that seem to want to destroy the team.
This is sports entertainment, it’s all about image, revenue, and putting on a show. Reporters working to discredit the image, affecting revenue, should do their reporting from the sidewalk.
It’s just business, but they are making it personal.
Aaaaaaand I’m back around to estimating Pacioretty’s next contract.
Some comparable to Max would be the recently signed deals by:
James Neal - 30 yrs old, 5 yrs, $5.75 million
Ilya Kovalchuk - 35 yrs old, 3 yrs, $6.25 million
Logan Couture - 29 yrs old, 8 yrs, $8 million
Paul Stastny - 32 yrs old, 3 yrs, $6.5 million
Evander Kane - 26 yrs old, 7 yrs, $7 million
If I was to average all of these deals per year it comes out to be $6.7 million and that seems a bit too low for Pacioretty heading into his last big earning contract. But it is quite clear to me that the minimum a team should be offering is $7 million per season.
These comparable all have various factors affecting their value but the one thing that will always be around is the GM who gets motivated enough to spend for his teams shot at success.
Neal got a great deal for a injury prone, 50 point player that will no doubt be a pain in future negotiations with young players on the team when they point to that deal as the reason they need to be paid. I had presumed he would get in the $5 million range in my UFA day blog and did see value in him on the Canadiens, but the Canadiens were a bit more desperate than Calgary for scoring (or so I thought).
Kovalchuk had elite scorer history and a lot of hype coming into his deal and for a 35 year old coming from a lesser league landing $6.25 million it should all but assure his agent wins “Agent Of The Year”.
Couture is a stud and worth every penny of his deal, no judgement there.
Stastny would have been helpful on the Habs and I think his deal is what he would have got from MTL, a large overpayment. I watched a lot of hockey last year and I can’t be the only one who found Stastny to appear a bit slow and clearly playing out the back nine of the career. It is likely why he could only steal $6.5 million for 3 years so kudos to the GM for standing firm on the term.
Kane likely won’t come anywhere close to earning that contract, like he hasn't for the last few years, but if he does become a 30 G, 60 pt player people thought he could be for a long time then it’s a good deal. Kane’s history doesn’t give that outcome great odds though. Maybe he will finally mature and the Sharks come out smelling like roses though. At 27 years old it’s more likely that he’s just a byproduct of having success at a young age effecting his ego in a way that was close to submarining his career. Better to mature late than never though I suppose.
So what does this mean for Pacioretty?
Pacioretty’s write up should read like: Captain in a tough market who's a fast, streaky scorer that scores a lot and is fantastic on the PK. Coming off his first down year in a season that seemed cursed from the first game onward though. Likely to remain a 30+ G, 60 + point player in the foreseeable future, especially with a proper Centerman.
Contract value?
Well, a high scoring Captain with at least 6 good years left should land somewhere between $7.5 to $8.5 million for 7 years in todays NHL and with revenues looking good. The deal will take him to the likely exit of his elite playing days and if not then he cashes in again on a 2-3 years deal, Kovalchuk-style. Except Max likely has a much better reputation than Kovalchuk and I can only speculate on what that value means to GM’s considering E Kane’s deal happened. *Shoulder Shrug Emoji*
Whether it’s in MTL or another NHL city, Max Pacioretty will be landing a deal similar to Logan Couture’s 8 year, $8 million per season deal with San Jose and anyone who questions it simply doesn’t pay attention to the salaries these NHLPA players are able to pull from ownership groups.
The possible trade value of Pacioretty should reflect this estimate as well and is likely why Pacioretty remains a Canadiens player today.
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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